Methodology to Prepare Patent Analysis and the Technological Maturity Cycle

Santiago Sinisterrra, R. Camargo-Amado, Diego Triviño, F. Machuca‐Martínez
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Abstract

The analysis of patents and the behavior of technology over time have aroused great interest at institutions and companies because they serve as a guide to make decisions on research and innovation projects. Based on this, a methodology that seeks to guide the reader in the preparation of this type of study; both the body of the document and its interpretation has been developed. Two software were used to describe the extraction of patent data; Orbit Intelligence (Licensed Software) and Lens (Open access version). The information obtained, using the same search equation, was presented. For the analysis of the technological maturity cycle, the logistic model was obtained, and it was executed in the Loglet Lab 4 software to obtain the growth curve S. Finally, the Yoon parameters were presented to give a predictive concept of the behavior of the technology over time. The case study that was taken as an example was the technology of “Antibacterial and self-cleaning surfaces based on TiO2/ZnO”, which applied this methodology,  we found that the technology of interest is in the maturity phase. It has a high impact on the market, being an important indicator for decision-making focused on research and development. According to what has been proposed, the exposed methodology is a tool to have in consideration that allows to present a more accurate concept about the future projections of a technology, based on the analysis of patent data. Moreover, it is important to consider the trends of the market and the socio-political situation.
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准备专利分析和技术成熟周期的方法
对专利和技术随时间变化的行为的分析引起了机构和公司的极大兴趣,因为它们可以作为研究和创新项目决策的指南。在此基础上,一种旨在指导读者准备这类研究的方法;该文件的正文及其解释都已拟订。采用两种软件描述专利数据的提取;Orbit Intelligence(授权软件)和Lens(开放获取版本)。给出了用相同的搜索方程得到的信息。对于技术成熟周期的分析,获得了logistic模型,并在Loglet Lab 4软件中执行该模型以获得生长曲线s。最后,提出了Yoon参数,以给出技术随时间变化的行为预测概念。以“基于TiO2/ZnO的抗菌和自清洁表面”技术为例进行了案例研究,应用了该方法,我们发现感兴趣的技术处于成熟阶段。它对市场的影响很大,是研发决策的重要指标。根据所提出的建议,所暴露的方法是一种需要考虑的工具,它允许基于对专利数据的分析,对技术的未来预测提出更准确的概念。此外,重要的是要考虑市场趋势和社会政治局势。
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