Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of urban-rural inversion of population aging in China

Abstract

The phenomenon of urban-rural inversion population aging is a severe issue faced by China in building a well-off society in an all-round way. Using GIS spatial clustering and multiple stepwise regression models, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of urban-rural inversion of population aging in China on a provincial scale. The results show that: 1) In terms of time series evolution, with the continuous higher level of China’s population aging, the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion is becoming more and more obvious. 2) In terms of spatial pattern evolution, from 1995 to 2018, the spatial agglomeration intensity of urban-rural inversion showed an inverted U-shaped change trend of “low—high—low”. It first appeared in the Eastern coastal areas, then gradually expanded to the Central and Western regions, and finally evolved into a national common phenomenon. 3) In terms of driving mechanism, there is a complex multi-dimensional and nonlinear interaction mechanism behind the phenomenon of population aging and urban-rural inversion. Among them, population and economic factors are the main driving factors of this phenomenon. For the western provinces with underdeveloped economy, serious population outflow and high level of rural aging, the phenomenon of “old and poor” in rural areas has become a key challenge in the implementation of strategies such as rural revitalization and targeted poverty alleviation.