Climate Variability Patterns and Farmers’ Perceptions of Its Impact on Food Production: A Case Study of the Gelda Watershed in the Lake Tana Basin in Northwest Ethiopia

Abstract

This study looked at patterns of erratic climate and farmer perceptions in the Gelda watershed of Lake Tana Basin in northwestern Ethiopia. The National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia provided essential climatic data for the period between 1981 and 2011. A household survey and focus group discussions were also used to understand about local communities’ perceptions of climate variability and its impact on food production. Time series trend analysis of observed rainfall and temperature conditions was detected using linear regression analysis. To compare the means of climatic parameters and determine whether the average difference was significantly different from zero, the paired sampled t-test was used. The study found that the average annual temperature trend increased by 1.1°C, while the amount and distribution of annual and monthly rainfall decreased, varied across the catchment, and fluctuated during the study periods (1981–2011) at mean temperature rise with an average rate of 0.17°C in the last decade. The variability of annual and monthly rainfall in terms of intensity and distribution has decreased and varied across the watershed. The analysis revealed that annual rainfall variability was variable in the upper catchment (CV > 11.7%) and lower catchment (CV > 14.4%). The amount and intensity of temperature, on the other hand, increased throughout the study watershed, despite observed variation both spatially and temporally (stated decades). Farmers’ understanding and expression of climate variability in terms of erratic rainfall distribution, decreasing amount, and increasing temperature over the last three decades, however, matched the observed data. Moreover, farmers are pointed out that high population pressure; deforestation and intensified agriculture are responsible factors for the variability of climate in the study watershed. Therefore, based on the findings, scientist and policymakers has to design appropriate adaptation measures that can tackle the aggravation of climate variability for future.