Using evolutionary functional-structural plant modelling to understand the effect of climate change on plant populations

IF 2.6 Q1 AGRONOMY in silico Plants Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.32942/osf.io/6be84
Jorad de Vries
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Abstract

The “holy grail” of trait-based ecology is to predict the fitness of a species in a particular environment based on its functional traits, which has become all the more relevant in the light of global change. However, current ecological models are ill-equipped to predict ecological responses to novel conditions due to their reliance on statistical methods and current observations rather than the mechanisms underlying how functional traits interact with the environment to determine plant fitness. Here, I will advocate the use of functional-structural plant (FSP) modelling in combination with evolutionary modelling to explore climate change responses in natural plant communities. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of how trait-environment interactions drive natural selection in novel environments requires consideration of individual plants with multidimensional phenotypes in dynamic environments that include abiotic gradients and biotic interactions, and their effect on the different vital rates that determine plant fitness. Evolutionary FSP modelling explicitly represents the trait-environment interactions that drive eco-evolutionary dynamics from individual to population scales and allows for efficient navigation of the large, complex and dynamic fitness landscapes that emerge from considering multidimensional plants in multidimensional environments. Using evolutionary FSP modelling as a tool to study climate change responses of plant communities can further our understanding of the mechanistic basis of these responses, and in particular, the role of local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and gene flow.
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利用进化功能结构植物模型了解气候变化对植物种群的影响
基于特征生态学的“圣杯”是根据一个物种的功能特征来预测其在特定环境中的适应性,这在全球变化的背景下变得更加重要。然而,目前的生态模型不适合预测对新条件的生态反应,因为它们依赖于统计方法和当前的观测结果,而不是功能性状如何与环境相互作用以确定植物适应性的机制。在这里,我将提倡将功能结构植物(FSP)建模与进化建模相结合,以探索自然植物群落的气候变化响应。要从机理上理解性状-环境相互作用如何在新环境中驱动自然选择,需要考虑在动态环境中具有多维表型的个体植物,包括非生物梯度和生物相互作用,以及它们对决定植物适应性的不同生命率的影响。进化FSP模型明确表示了从个体到种群尺度驱动生态进化动力学的特征-环境相互作用,并允许对多维环境中考虑多维植物产生的大型、复杂和动态适应度景观进行有效导航。使用进化FSP模型作为研究植物群落气候变化响应的工具,可以进一步了解这些响应的机制基础,特别是局部适应、表型可塑性和基因流动的作用。
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来源期刊
in silico Plants
in silico Plants Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agronomy and Crop Science
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
9.70%
发文量
21
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊最新文献
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