Estimating the effect of taxing CO2 emissions on Russian oil industry

Svetlana Burmina, K. Nesterova, A. Polbin
{"title":"Estimating the effect of taxing CO2 emissions on Russian oil industry","authors":"Svetlana Burmina, K. Nesterova, A. Polbin","doi":"10.17323/1996-7845-2022-03-05","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The impact of hypothetical restrictions on fossil fuel consumption, implemented through the introduction of a tax on CO2 emissions in the global economy and certain regions, on oil production by Russia, OPEC, and eight other major oil producers is assessed in this article. The first part of this study reviews the current literature on taxation of emissions in the global economy. Approaches to modelling such a policy and the problem of choosing the trajectory of the tax rate are analyzed, as are the main conclusions, consequences, and recommendations for the economic policy of oil exporting countries. Approaches to modelling pricing in the oil market are considered separately. The analysis shows that the premise of oligopolistic strategic interaction of oil exporters plays an important role in modelling the oil market. Subsequently, a model of strategic interaction between countries in the oil market is built according to the Cournot model. This model is calibrated using data on the parameter of demand as well as supply, including the production costs of individual exporting countries according to Rystad. Twelve scenarios for taxation of the industry through the introduction of a tax on CO2 emissions in the amount of $25, $50 and $75 dollars per ton of emissions are built. It is assumed that this tax is converted into a tax on the purchase of oil in proportion to the amount of emissions that are emitted when using each barrel of oil. For each initial value of the tax rate of the tax on emissions, cases are considered when the rate remains unchanged or increases at a constant rate of 1.5% per year. Further, the same options for taxation when applied only by developed countries are also considered. The analysis in this article shows that a gradual increase in the tax rate leads to accelerated oil production. It also reveals the significant role of the spillover effect between markets in the case of the introduction of a tax only in some countries. Thus, with the introduction of a tax of $50 per ton of emissions with an annual growth of 1.5% worldwide, the peak oil price is lower by $29.6 per barrel. With the introduction of such a tax only in developed countries, the fall in oil prices at its peak compared to the baseline scenario without taxation is $18.4 per barrel in the market where a tax was introduced, and $7.8 per barrel in a market that did not impose a tax. It is also indicated that, due to the introduction of the tax, Russia has one of the largest losses in revenue among all oil exporters.","PeriodicalId":42976,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2022-03-05","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1

Abstract

The impact of hypothetical restrictions on fossil fuel consumption, implemented through the introduction of a tax on CO2 emissions in the global economy and certain regions, on oil production by Russia, OPEC, and eight other major oil producers is assessed in this article. The first part of this study reviews the current literature on taxation of emissions in the global economy. Approaches to modelling such a policy and the problem of choosing the trajectory of the tax rate are analyzed, as are the main conclusions, consequences, and recommendations for the economic policy of oil exporting countries. Approaches to modelling pricing in the oil market are considered separately. The analysis shows that the premise of oligopolistic strategic interaction of oil exporters plays an important role in modelling the oil market. Subsequently, a model of strategic interaction between countries in the oil market is built according to the Cournot model. This model is calibrated using data on the parameter of demand as well as supply, including the production costs of individual exporting countries according to Rystad. Twelve scenarios for taxation of the industry through the introduction of a tax on CO2 emissions in the amount of $25, $50 and $75 dollars per ton of emissions are built. It is assumed that this tax is converted into a tax on the purchase of oil in proportion to the amount of emissions that are emitted when using each barrel of oil. For each initial value of the tax rate of the tax on emissions, cases are considered when the rate remains unchanged or increases at a constant rate of 1.5% per year. Further, the same options for taxation when applied only by developed countries are also considered. The analysis in this article shows that a gradual increase in the tax rate leads to accelerated oil production. It also reveals the significant role of the spillover effect between markets in the case of the introduction of a tax only in some countries. Thus, with the introduction of a tax of $50 per ton of emissions with an annual growth of 1.5% worldwide, the peak oil price is lower by $29.6 per barrel. With the introduction of such a tax only in developed countries, the fall in oil prices at its peak compared to the baseline scenario without taxation is $18.4 per barrel in the market where a tax was introduced, and $7.8 per barrel in a market that did not impose a tax. It is also indicated that, due to the introduction of the tax, Russia has one of the largest losses in revenue among all oil exporters.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
估计二氧化碳排放税对俄罗斯石油工业的影响
本文评估了通过对全球经济和某些地区的二氧化碳排放征税对化石燃料消费的假设限制对俄罗斯、欧佩克和其他八个主要石油生产国的石油生产的影响。本研究的第一部分回顾了当前关于全球经济中排放税的文献。分析了这种政策的建模方法和选择税率轨迹的问题,以及石油出口国经济政策的主要结论、后果和建议。分别考虑了石油市场定价建模方法。分析表明,石油出口国寡头战略互动的前提对石油市场建模具有重要作用。随后,根据库诺模型建立了石油市场国家间战略互动模型。Rystad表示,该模型使用需求和供应参数的数据进行校准,包括各个出口国的生产成本。通过引入每吨排放25美元、50美元和75美元的二氧化碳排放税,建立了12种行业税收方案。据假设,这项税收被转换为购买石油的税收,与使用每桶石油时排放的排放量成比例。对于排放税税率的每个初始值,当税率保持不变或以每年1.5%的恒定率增长时,会考虑这些情况。此外,还考虑了仅由发达国家适用的相同税收选择。本文的分析表明,税率的逐步提高会加速石油生产。它还揭示了在仅在一些国家引入税收的情况下,市场之间的溢出效应的重要作用。因此,随着每吨排放物征收50美元的税,全球年增长率为1.5%,石油峰值价格降低了每桶29.6美元。由于只有发达国家才实行这种税收,与不征税的基准情景相比,在实行税收的市场,油价在峰值时的跌幅为每桶18.4美元,在不征税的市场,跌幅为每桶7.8美元。还指出,由于该税的引入,俄罗斯是所有石油出口国中收入损失最大的国家之一。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
期刊最新文献
G20 at the Critical Juncture. Indonesia’s 2022 Presidency: Internal and External Shocks, Risks of Power Rebalancing and Eventual Demise, Causes of Resilience and Re-Equilibrium Transformation of the “Climate Club” Concept: From Theory to Practice (Review) Why multilateralism is losing ground in audiovisual services in the WTO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Reassessment of the Priorities Against the Background of Old Problems and New Challenges. Book Review: «The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Exploring New Horizons» Climate Risks and Financial Stability: The Role of Central Banks and Implications for Russia
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1