Climate Change and Extreme Temperature Trends in the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest threats that our civilization is facing because increases in extreme temperatures severely affect humans, the economy, and ecosystems. General circulation models, which adequately predict climate change around the world, are less accurate at regional levels. Therefore, trends must be locally assessed, particularly in regions such as the Baja California Peninsula, which is a thin mass of land surrounded by the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. Herein, we discuss extreme temperature trends in the Baja California Peninsula and whether they are statistically significant based on the Spearman’s nonparametric statistical test. For these purposes, 18 weather stations covering the entire region were analyzed, revealing that maximum temperatures for the hottest months are rising at a rate that is consistent with the RCP 8.5 scenario. Changes in minimum temperatures were also analyzed.