Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Sustainability Pub Date : 2021-01-22 DOI:10.1017/sus.2021.3
Sylvia L. R. Wood, Amy Luers, Jennifer Garard, A. Gambhir, K. Chaudhari, M. Ivanova, Casey Cronin
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Non-technical summary Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that disruptions present, and share perspectives on how to respond and inform decision-making. We report on the recent use of an international rapid foresight survey to assess expected societal trends over the next 3 years following the COVID-19 crisis. The results illustrate the power of collective foresight approaches to provide timely, nuanced insights for decision-making across sectors and scales, particularly in times of uncertainty. Technical summary We present the findings of a rapid foresight survey launched in spring 2020 to draw on the collective intelligence of the global community on where the world is headed post-COVID-19. Respondents were asked to (i) assess five key societal trends in the coming 3 years, (ii) provide news headlines they both expect and hope to see, and (iii) assess the role of digital technologies during crises. Analysis of over 2000 responses from more than 90 countries revealed important regional differences in expected societal trends related to sustainability. More respondents in the Global South expected shifts towards less inequality while more respondents in the Global North expected shifts towards a smaller ecological footprint. Qualitative analysis of proposed news headlines revealed four broad themes of focus (environment, equity, health, and economy), and yielded insights into perspectives on critical drivers of change. Finally, the survey report found that the vast majority of respondents were not opposed to digital surveillance in crises. In presenting these results, we explore the value of collective foresight and intelligence exercises in providing pluralistic inputs to decision-making and in complementing more prevalent methods of forecasting. Social media summary Collective foresight exercises with diverse communities can help chart robust pathways to more sustainable futures.
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可持续发展的集体远见和智慧
绘制通往“不让任何一个人掉队”的更可持续未来的稳健路径,需要不同的社区参与集体远见和情报演习,以更好地了解全球系统性挑战,预测破坏带来的新风险和机遇,并就如何应对和为决策提供信息分享观点。我们报告最近利用国际快速预见调查来评估2019冠状病毒病危机后未来三年的预期社会趋势。研究结果表明,集体预见方法可以为跨部门和规模的决策提供及时、细致的见解,特别是在不确定时期。我们介绍2020年春季启动的一项快速前瞻调查的结果,该调查旨在利用国际社会的集体智慧,了解后covid -19时代的世界走向。受访者被要求(i)评估未来3年的五个关键社会趋势,(ii)提供他们期望和希望看到的新闻标题,以及(iii)评估数字技术在危机中的作用。对来自90多个国家的2000多个答复的分析显示,在与可持续性有关的预期社会趋势方面存在重要的区域差异。全球南方更多的受访者希望减少不平等,而全球北方更多的受访者希望减少生态足迹。对拟议新闻标题的定性分析揭示了四个广泛的重点主题(环境、公平、健康和经济),并对变化的关键驱动因素的观点产生了见解。最后,调查报告发现,绝大多数受访者并不反对在危机中进行数字监控。在展示这些结果时,我们探讨了集体预见和智力练习在为决策提供多元化投入和补充更流行的预测方法方面的价值。与不同社区进行的集体远见练习可以帮助规划通往更可持续未来的坚实道路。
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来源期刊
Global Sustainability
Global Sustainability Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
17 weeks
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