{"title":"Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections","authors":"R. Guo, A. Montanari","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Simulations of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850–2100 are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna for the period 1850–2014 and analysed to assess meteorological drought changes up to 2100. In particular, we focus on monthly and annual rainfall data, seasonality, and drought events to derive information on the future development of critical events for water resource availability. The results show that historical data analysis under the assumption of stationarity provides more precautionary predictions for long-term meteorological droughts with respect to climate model simulations, thereby outlining that information integration is key to obtaining technical indications.\n","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Abstract. Simulations of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850–2100 are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna for the period 1850–2014 and analysed to assess meteorological drought changes up to 2100. In particular, we focus on monthly and annual rainfall data, seasonality, and drought events to derive information on the future development of critical events for water resource availability. The results show that historical data analysis under the assumption of stationarity provides more precautionary predictions for long-term meteorological droughts with respect to climate model simulations, thereby outlining that information integration is key to obtaining technical indications.
期刊介绍：
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) is a not-for-profit international two-stage open-access journal for the publication of original research in hydrology. HESS encourages and supports fundamental and applied research that advances the understanding of hydrological systems, their role in providing water for ecosystems and society, and the role of the water cycle in the functioning of the Earth system. A multi-disciplinary approach is encouraged that broadens the hydrological perspective and the advancement of hydrological science through integration with other cognate sciences and cross-fertilization across disciplinary boundaries.
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