Unpacking Planning Fallacy

M. Huang
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Abstract

This study was conducted to determine whether planning fallacy can be affected through the action of unpacking a to-do list. The study uses two surveys on a specific population of Amazon Turk workers and randomly assigned participants to each of the two surveys. The survey produced discrete responses that can be used to statistically determine the effect of unpacking on the effect of planning fallacy. The data were collected and analyzed through data analysis tools and the statistical concept of T-Test. Although the manipulation of unpacking a to-do list was evidently present in the experimental group, the results failed to prove the initial hypothesis that unpacking a to-do list reduces the effect of planning fallacy. 
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拆解计划谬误
这项研究旨在确定打开待办事项清单的行为是否会影响计划谬误。这项研究使用了两项针对亚马逊土耳其工人特定人群的调查,并将参与者随机分配到两项调查中的每一项。该调查产生了离散的回答,可用于统计确定开箱对计划谬误影响的影响。通过数据分析工具和T检验的统计概念对数据进行收集和分析。尽管在实验组中明显存在打开待办事项清单的操作,但结果未能证明最初的假设,即打开待办事项列表可以减少计划谬误的影响。
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