{"title":"Behavioural antecedents of Bitcoin trading volume","authors":"Blanka škrabić Perić, Petar Sorić, Ivana Jerković","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to examine the behavioural determinants of Bitcoin trading volume within a cross-country framework of 14 world economies plus the Eurozone. We introduce a basic taxonomy of behavioural indicators, distinguishing between consumer confidence, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and indicators of financial volatility. Our estimations reveal that the Bitcoin trading volume can be predicted more accurately by EPU than by any other class of indicators. Finally, we identify the COVID-19 shock as a catalyst for a psychologically-driven Bitcoin market and find evidence that Bitcoin was a macro hedging instrument in the pandemic. To obtain our results, we conducted a panel Granger causality test, employing the Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) estimator. Contrary to previous research, we found that market fundamentals (industrial production and equity market volume) became significant drivers of Bitcoin trading during the pandemic. This conclusion was preserved when we used the LSDV corrected estimator, which is more suitable for panels with a smaller time dimension. Apart from the practical implications for traders, this paper provides researchers with detailed steps for applying Granger causality testing in panel data settings.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Croatian Operational Research Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0008","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the behavioural determinants of Bitcoin trading volume within a cross-country framework of 14 world economies plus the Eurozone. We introduce a basic taxonomy of behavioural indicators, distinguishing between consumer confidence, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and indicators of financial volatility. Our estimations reveal that the Bitcoin trading volume can be predicted more accurately by EPU than by any other class of indicators. Finally, we identify the COVID-19 shock as a catalyst for a psychologically-driven Bitcoin market and find evidence that Bitcoin was a macro hedging instrument in the pandemic. To obtain our results, we conducted a panel Granger causality test, employing the Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) estimator. Contrary to previous research, we found that market fundamentals (industrial production and equity market volume) became significant drivers of Bitcoin trading during the pandemic. This conclusion was preserved when we used the LSDV corrected estimator, which is more suitable for panels with a smaller time dimension. Apart from the practical implications for traders, this paper provides researchers with detailed steps for applying Granger causality testing in panel data settings.
期刊介绍：
Croatian Operational Research Review (CRORR) is the journal which publishes original scientific papers from the area of operational research. The purpose is to publish papers from various aspects of operational research (OR) with the aim of presenting scientific ideas that will contribute both to theoretical development and practical application of OR. The scope of the journal covers the following subject areas: linear and non-linear programming, integer programing, combinatorial and discrete optimization, multi-objective programming, stohastic models and optimization, scheduling, macroeconomics, economic theory, game theory, statistics and econometrics, marketing and data analysis, information and decision support systems, banking, finance, insurance, environment, energy, health, neural networks and fuzzy systems, control theory, simulation, practical OR and applications. The audience includes both researchers and practitioners from the area of operations research, applied mathematics, statistics, econometrics, intelligent methods, simulation, and other areas included in the above list of topics. The journal has an international board of editors, consisting of more than 30 editors – university professors from Croatia, Slovenia, USA, Italy, Germany, Austria and other coutries.
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