Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0002
Kshitish Kumar Mohanta, D. Sharanappa, A. Aggarwal
The evaluation of the performance of decision-making units (DMUs) that use comparable inputs to produce related outputs can be accomplished through a non-parametric linear programming (LP) technique called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). However, the observed data are occasionally imprecise, ambiguous, inadequate, and inconsistent which may result in incorrect decision-making when these criteria are ignored. Neutrosophic Set (NS) is an extension of fuzzy sets which is used to represent unclear, erroneous, missing, and wrong information. This paper proposes a neutrosophic version of the DEA model, and a novel solution technique for Neutrosophic DEA (Neu-DEA) model. The possibility mean for triangular neutrosophic number (TNN) is redefined and modified the Khatter’s approach to convert directly the Neu-DEA model into its crisp DEA model. As a result, the Neu-DEA model is simplified to a crisp LP problem with a risk parameter (δ ∈ [0, 1]) that represents the attitude of the decision-maker towards taking risk. The efficiency score of the DMUs is computed by using various risk factors and divided into efficient and inefficient groups. The ranking of DMUs is determined by calculating the mean efficiency score of DMUs, which is based on various risk parameters. A numerical example is illustrated here to describe the suggested approach’s flexibility and authenticity and compared with some of the existing approaches.
{"title":"A novel modified Khatter’s approach for solving Neutrosophic Data Envelopment Analysis","authors":"Kshitish Kumar Mohanta, D. Sharanappa, A. Aggarwal","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0002","url":null,"abstract":"The evaluation of the performance of decision-making units (DMUs) that use comparable inputs to produce related outputs can be accomplished through a non-parametric linear programming (LP) technique called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). However, the observed data are occasionally imprecise, ambiguous, inadequate, and inconsistent which may result in incorrect decision-making when these criteria are ignored. Neutrosophic Set (NS) is an extension of fuzzy sets which is used to represent unclear, erroneous, missing, and wrong information. This paper proposes a neutrosophic version of the DEA model, and a novel solution technique for Neutrosophic DEA (Neu-DEA) model. The possibility mean for triangular neutrosophic number (TNN) is redefined and modified the Khatter’s approach to convert directly the Neu-DEA model into its crisp DEA model. As a result, the Neu-DEA model is simplified to a crisp LP problem with a risk parameter (δ ∈ [0, 1]) that represents the attitude of the decision-maker towards taking risk. The efficiency score of the DMUs is computed by using various risk factors and divided into efficient and inefficient groups. The ranking of DMUs is determined by calculating the mean efficiency score of DMUs, which is based on various risk parameters. A numerical example is illustrated here to describe the suggested approach’s flexibility and authenticity and compared with some of the existing approaches.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42900770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0008
Blanka škrabić Perić, Petar Sorić, Ivana Jerković
This paper aims to examine the behavioural determinants of Bitcoin trading volume within a cross-country framework of 14 world economies plus the Eurozone. We introduce a basic taxonomy of behavioural indicators, distinguishing between consumer confidence, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and indicators of financial volatility. Our estimations reveal that the Bitcoin trading volume can be predicted more accurately by EPU than by any other class of indicators. Finally, we identify the COVID-19 shock as a catalyst for a psychologically-driven Bitcoin market and find evidence that Bitcoin was a macro hedging instrument in the pandemic. To obtain our results, we conducted a panel Granger causality test, employing the Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) estimator. Contrary to previous research, we found that market fundamentals (industrial production and equity market volume) became significant drivers of Bitcoin trading during the pandemic. This conclusion was preserved when we used the LSDV corrected estimator, which is more suitable for panels with a smaller time dimension. Apart from the practical implications for traders, this paper provides researchers with detailed steps for applying Granger causality testing in panel data settings.
{"title":"Behavioural antecedents of Bitcoin trading volume","authors":"Blanka škrabić Perić, Petar Sorić, Ivana Jerković","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0008","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to examine the behavioural determinants of Bitcoin trading volume within a cross-country framework of 14 world economies plus the Eurozone. We introduce a basic taxonomy of behavioural indicators, distinguishing between consumer confidence, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and indicators of financial volatility. Our estimations reveal that the Bitcoin trading volume can be predicted more accurately by EPU than by any other class of indicators. Finally, we identify the COVID-19 shock as a catalyst for a psychologically-driven Bitcoin market and find evidence that Bitcoin was a macro hedging instrument in the pandemic. To obtain our results, we conducted a panel Granger causality test, employing the Least Squares Dummy Variables (LSDV) estimator. Contrary to previous research, we found that market fundamentals (industrial production and equity market volume) became significant drivers of Bitcoin trading during the pandemic. This conclusion was preserved when we used the LSDV corrected estimator, which is more suitable for panels with a smaller time dimension. Apart from the practical implications for traders, this paper provides researchers with detailed steps for applying Granger causality testing in panel data settings.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46945395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0003
Dujam Kovač, Doris Podrug
This article describes how investors on the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) can use Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to select shares for investment. Both financial and market liquidity criteria are used to compare different shares. Market liquidity criteria include the average number of daily trades and the average daily turnover on the regular market. These criteria help to determine the liquidity of shares in the secondary market, which is the main contribution of this research.The investment selection proposal is based on the PROMETHEE. The performance of the portfolio constructed using the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was tested. Predictably, the inclusion of liquidity criteria in the share selection process resulted in an increase in the liquidity of the portfolio, an effect that is clearly evident after 2019. However, such a portfolio does not provide significantly different returns compared to a scenario where liquidity criteria are excluded from share selection process. Reading this paper provides an insight into how to make investment decisions based on criteria consistent with investors’ objectives in an developing capital market.
{"title":"Improving portfolio liquidity","authors":"Dujam Kovač, Doris Podrug","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0003","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes how investors on the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) can use Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to select shares for investment. Both financial and market liquidity criteria are used to compare different shares. Market liquidity criteria include the average number of daily trades and the average daily turnover on the regular market. These criteria help to determine the liquidity of shares in the secondary market, which is the main contribution of this research.The investment selection proposal is based on the PROMETHEE. The performance of the portfolio constructed using the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was tested. Predictably, the inclusion of liquidity criteria in the share selection process resulted in an increase in the liquidity of the portfolio, an effect that is clearly evident after 2019. However, such a portfolio does not provide significantly different returns compared to a scenario where liquidity criteria are excluded from share selection process. Reading this paper provides an insight into how to make investment decisions based on criteria consistent with investors’ objectives in an developing capital market.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41637533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0006
Karol Szomolányi, Martin Lukáčik, Adriana Lukacikova
The paper seeks to identify the essential global-economic macro-shocks resulting from efforts by consumers, firms, or government policies to reduce social distancing, which caused a sharp temporary change in the world economy during the pandemic outbreak in the second quarter of 2020. The purpose is fulfilled using a simple two-period real-business cycle model. The observed reaction of the global economy in the second period of 2020 is measured by the deviation of the time series of GDP and its components, labor, labor income, and average labor product in the USA and EU from the log-quadratic trend. The model can replicate the observed economic response by reducing the total factor productivity, labor demand, and labor supply—no need to assume sticky prices. As a sudden drop in performance is supposed, followed by a modest recovery already in the following period, it is not assumed that the government would be able to avert it in time with fiscal or monetary policy. Moreover, the assumption of variable prices and supply-side shocks does not support such a policy.
{"title":"Macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic first wave in the world","authors":"Karol Szomolányi, Martin Lukáčik, Adriana Lukacikova","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0006","url":null,"abstract":"The paper seeks to identify the essential global-economic macro-shocks resulting from efforts by consumers, firms, or government policies to reduce social distancing, which caused a sharp temporary change in the world economy during the pandemic outbreak in the second quarter of 2020. The purpose is fulfilled using a simple two-period real-business cycle model. The observed reaction of the global economy in the second period of 2020 is measured by the deviation of the time series of GDP and its components, labor, labor income, and average labor product in the USA and EU from the log-quadratic trend. The model can replicate the observed economic response by reducing the total factor productivity, labor demand, and labor supply—no need to assume sticky prices. As a sudden drop in performance is supposed, followed by a modest recovery already in the following period, it is not assumed that the government would be able to avert it in time with fiscal or monetary policy. Moreover, the assumption of variable prices and supply-side shocks does not support such a policy.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48566179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0004
M. J. S. Noveiri, S. Kordrostami, Rahim Rahimi Anarestani
Few inverse data envelopment analysis (DEA) models have incorporated non-discretionary measures based on radial efficiency values. However, the efficiency may be miscounted in radial approaches when some non-zero slacks appear. Furthermore, there is scant research on inverse DEA to estimate performance measures in the restaurant industry. Accordingly, this research proposes models based on non-radial DEA to analyze the efficiency and output changes of some Iranian restaurants while also presenting non-discretionary measures. Actually, in the company of non-discretionary factors, a non-radial DEA approach and its inverse problem are introduced to assess the performance and estimate the outputs for the modifications of inputs, respectively, while the inefficiency levels are maintained (and when they are preserved or decreased). The inefficiency of each discretionary input and output is specified using the presented non-radial DEA approach, and output targets are determined through inverse non-radial DEA with non-discretionary inputs. The results show containing non-discretionary data leads to more rational determinations through non-radial DEA-founded problems. This research presents analytic insights into the resources of inefficiency and output targets of entities with non-discretionary data, such as restaurants.
{"title":"Estimating outputs using an inverse non-radial model with non-discretionary measures","authors":"M. J. S. Noveiri, S. Kordrostami, Rahim Rahimi Anarestani","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0004","url":null,"abstract":"Few inverse data envelopment analysis (DEA) models have incorporated non-discretionary measures based on radial efficiency values. However, the efficiency may be miscounted in radial approaches when some non-zero slacks appear. Furthermore, there is scant research on inverse DEA to estimate performance measures in the restaurant industry. Accordingly, this research proposes models based on non-radial DEA to analyze the efficiency and output changes of some Iranian restaurants while also presenting non-discretionary measures. Actually, in the company of non-discretionary factors, a non-radial DEA approach and its inverse problem are introduced to assess the performance and estimate the outputs for the modifications of inputs, respectively, while the inefficiency levels are maintained (and when they are preserved or decreased). The inefficiency of each discretionary input and output is specified using the presented non-radial DEA approach, and output targets are determined through inverse non-radial DEA with non-discretionary inputs. The results show containing non-discretionary data leads to more rational determinations through non-radial DEA-founded problems. This research presents analytic insights into the resources of inefficiency and output targets of entities with non-discretionary data, such as restaurants.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46270536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0005
Tomislav Korotaj, Nataša Kurnoga, N. Šimurina
The aim of this paper is to classify the post-transition OECD countries according to the Gini coefficient for income inequality, the S80/S20 ratio, the income share of the bottom 40% of the population, educational attainment – tertiary education, and labor force participation rate using factor and cluster analyses. Factor analysis resulted in two extracted factors, and factor scores were calculated. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed on factor scores to classify eight posttransition OECD countries and three candidate countries. The research question of this paper is to investigate whether there are similarities/differences between existing members and candidates for membership in the OECD, among the selected post-transition countries of Europe, in the context of income inequality. Based on the dendrogram obtained by the hierarchical Ward’s method, a three cluster solution was selected. The non-hierarchical k-means method for the three-cluster solution clustered Croatia with Bulgaria and Romania. These three countries are OECD candidate countries. Our findings confirm that the three candidate countries remain behind because of historical reasons and the non-implementation of structural reforms.
{"title":"Multivariate analysis of post-transition OECD countries in the context of inequality measures","authors":"Tomislav Korotaj, Nataša Kurnoga, N. Šimurina","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0005","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to classify the post-transition OECD countries according to the Gini coefficient for income inequality, the S80/S20 ratio, the income share of the bottom 40% of the population, educational attainment – tertiary education, and labor force participation rate using factor and cluster analyses. Factor analysis resulted in two extracted factors, and factor scores were calculated. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed on factor scores to classify eight posttransition OECD countries and three candidate countries. The research question of this paper is to investigate whether there are similarities/differences between existing members and candidates for membership in the OECD, among the selected post-transition countries of Europe, in the context of income inequality. Based on the dendrogram obtained by the hierarchical Ward’s method, a three cluster solution was selected. The non-hierarchical k-means method for the three-cluster solution clustered Croatia with Bulgaria and Romania. These three countries are OECD candidate countries. Our findings confirm that the three candidate countries remain behind because of historical reasons and the non-implementation of structural reforms.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48657461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0007
Boris Cota, N. Erjavec, S. Jakšić
The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU countries from 1995 to 2020. The analysed period characterises high globalisation in which “new” EU countries experienced a high transformation of their productive structure. Production structure largely determines income distribution and, thus, income inequality. We employed panel data methodology to assess the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality. To control for economic activity and education, GDP per capita and average years of secondary schooling are also included in the analysis. Expectedly, our findings point to the correlation between economic complexity and income inequality in EU countries. However, the results also indicate an opposite effect between the “old” EU member states and a group of “new” EU member states. This finding suggests that “new” EU members needed more economic complexity in the observed period to reduce income inequality.
{"title":"Economic complexity and income inequality in EU countries","authors":"Boris Cota, N. Erjavec, S. Jakšić","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0007","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU countries from 1995 to 2020. The analysed period characterises high globalisation in which “new” EU countries experienced a high transformation of their productive structure. Production structure largely determines income distribution and, thus, income inequality. We employed panel data methodology to assess the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality. To control for economic activity and education, GDP per capita and average years of secondary schooling are also included in the analysis. Expectedly, our findings point to the correlation between economic complexity and income inequality in EU countries. However, the results also indicate an opposite effect between the “old” EU member states and a group of “new” EU member states. This finding suggests that “new” EU members needed more economic complexity in the observed period to reduce income inequality.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43799889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2023.0001
Rebeka Čorić, Domagoj Matijevic, Darija Markovic
The accurate short-term forecasting of daily airborne pollen concentrations is of great importance in public health. Various machine learning and statistical techniques have been employed to predict these concentrations. In this paper, an RNN-based method called PollenNet is introduced, which is capable of predicting the average daily pollen concentrations for three types of pollen: ragweed (Ambrosia), birch (Betula), and grass (Poaceae). Moreover, two strategies incorporating measurement errors during the training phase are introduced, making the method more robust. The data for experiments were obtained from the RealForAll project, where pollen concentrations were gathered using a Hirst-type 7-day volumetric spore trap.Additionally, five types of meteorological data were utilized as input variables. The results of our study demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms standard models typically used for predicting pollen concentrations, specifically the pollen calendar method, pollen predictions based on patterns, and the naive approach.
{"title":"PollenNet - a deep learning approach to predicting airborne pollen concentrations","authors":"Rebeka Čorić, Domagoj Matijevic, Darija Markovic","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2023.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2023.0001","url":null,"abstract":"The accurate short-term forecasting of daily airborne pollen concentrations is of great importance in public health. Various machine learning and statistical techniques have been employed to predict these concentrations. In this paper, an RNN-based method called PollenNet is introduced, which is capable of predicting the average daily pollen concentrations for three types of pollen: ragweed (Ambrosia), birch (Betula), and grass (Poaceae). Moreover, two strategies incorporating measurement errors during the training phase are introduced, making the method more robust. The data for experiments were obtained from the RealForAll project, where pollen concentrations were gathered using a Hirst-type 7-day volumetric spore trap.Additionally, five types of meteorological data were utilized as input variables. The results of our study demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms standard models typically used for predicting pollen concentrations, specifically the pollen calendar method, pollen predictions based on patterns, and the naive approach.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47652782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-22DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2022.0017
P. Volf
This paper studies the consequences of imperfect information for the precision of stochastic optimization. In particular, it is assumed that the stochastic characteristics of an optimization problem depend on unknown parameters estimated from available data. First, a theoretical result is presented, showing that consistent parameters estimation leads to consistent optimization. Further, a type of the studied models is specified; it is assumed that the random variables present in the optimization problem are influenced by covariates. This influence is expressed via a parametric regression model, whose parameters have to be estimated and used instead of the unknown correct parameters values. The objective is then to explore, with the aid of simulations, the imprecision of the optimization based on these estimates. Several types of regression models are recalled, the variability of estimates and the related precision of sub-optimal solutions is studied in detail on an example dealing with optimal maintenance. The impact of random right-censoring on the deterioration of precision is studied as well.
{"title":"On impact of statistical estimates on precision of stochastic optimization","authors":"P. Volf","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2022.0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2022.0017","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the consequences of imperfect information for the precision of stochastic optimization. In particular, it is assumed that the stochastic characteristics of an optimization problem depend on unknown parameters estimated from available data. First, a theoretical result is presented, showing that consistent parameters estimation leads to consistent optimization. Further, a type of the studied models is specified; it is assumed that the random variables present in the optimization problem are influenced by covariates. This influence is expressed via a parametric regression model, whose parameters have to be estimated and used instead of the unknown correct parameters values. The objective is then to explore, with the aid of simulations, the imprecision of the optimization based on these estimates. Several types of regression models are recalled, the variability of estimates and the related precision of sub-optimal solutions is studied in detail on an example dealing with optimal maintenance. The impact of random right-censoring on the deterioration of precision is studied as well.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48805315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Being a pensioner in Croatia carries certain risks of poverty and inequality compared to the rest of the population. Low level of average pension compared to the minimal wage is just one case in point. On the other hand, the labour market shortage is not negligible and there is also a poor track record when it comes to pension system reforms in the last two decades. This paper investigates a possible path of the future pension system reform aimed at increasing household income levels -- focused on the labour market participation of people aged 65+ who are willing and able to solve labour shortages present in the market. The general aim of the paper is to analyze the effects that the establishment of the Pensioners Service Center might have on market income, mean household income by decile groups, poverty and inequality indices. It fills the research gap by conducting the first microsimulation of the pension system reform in Croatia focusing on market income. The hypothetical reform is simulated using the tax--benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD based on EU--SILC 2019 data for Croatia. Results confirm market income as the main cause of income inequality as well as that the second decile is the target group of the proposed intervention. Pensioners have a clear monetary incentive to increase their labour supply, which in return decreases all poverty and inequality indices.
{"title":"No country for old men? Microsimulation effects of activating pensioners on the labour market","authors":"Nora Mustać, Velibor Mačkić, Lucija Rogić Dumančič","doi":"10.17535/crorr.2022.0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2022.0016","url":null,"abstract":"Being a pensioner in Croatia carries certain risks of poverty and inequality compared to the rest of the population. Low level of average pension compared to the minimal wage is just one case in point. On the other hand, the labour market shortage is not negligible and there is also a poor track record when it comes to pension system reforms in the last two decades. This paper investigates a possible path of the future pension system reform aimed at increasing household income levels -- focused on the labour market participation of people aged 65+ who are willing and able to solve labour shortages present in the market. The general aim of the paper is to analyze the effects that the establishment of the Pensioners Service Center might have on market income, mean household income by decile groups, poverty and inequality indices. It fills the research gap by conducting the first microsimulation of the pension system reform in Croatia focusing on market income. The hypothetical reform is simulated using the tax--benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD based on EU--SILC 2019 data for Croatia. Results confirm market income as the main cause of income inequality as well as that the second decile is the target group of the proposed intervention. Pensioners have a clear monetary incentive to increase their labour supply, which in return decreases all poverty and inequality indices.","PeriodicalId":44065,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Operational Research Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43020906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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