Agent-based modeling and simulation of pandemic propagation in a school environment

Abstract

Spatial behavior is a principal aspect for architects to consider. Unfortunately, it is sometimes hard to predict, as users of space seldom follow a standard routine. However, predicting user behavior in a space can potentially illuminate the entire design process. Moreover, it is a key factor in fighting the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Until most of the public gets their vaccine, health officials recommend social distancing as the primary means of fighting the pandemic. This paper uses an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) approach to reproduce, analyze, and predict spatial behavior during the pandemic in a school environment and its impact on disease propagation. The simulation reproduces the behavior of teachers and students at a sample elementary school. By manipulating parameters that simulate the school officials' response to the pandemic, stakeholders can assess the most effective preventive measures. As a result of running multiple scenarios, the study demonstrates how varying starting conditions and alternate spatial behaviors could lead to different results, providing insight to stakeholders on how to handle disease spread in school environments.