Dynamics and determinants of emigration: the case of Croatia and the experience of new EU member states

Abstract

This paper analyzes the emigration flows from Croatia and other new EU member states to the core EU countries after their EU accession. In order to assess the magnitude and dynamics of the recent emigration wave properly, we construct the series of indirect emigration flows, resorting to the national statistical offices of the selected core EU destination countries. We compare the Croatian experience with that of other NMS and show that the intensity of Croatia’s emigration flows after EU accession is proportional to that of the Romanian and Bulgarian cases. Finally, we empirically analyze the economic and non-economic drivers of emigration from NMS to the core EU in the 2000-2016 period. Results show that both economic (measured by different GDP and labour market indicators) and noneconomic factors (capturing the EU accession, the level of corruption in the economy and demographic characteristics of the origin country population) are relevant for emigration decisions.