Between War and Peace: Russian Visions of Future Relations with Ukraine and the West

Abstract

The paper identifies several Russian visions of future relations with Ukraine and Western nations from the mid-term perspective. Russian scholars and foreign policy analysts have debated several scenarios of future relations that can be defined as a long war, a hostile coexistence, and a renewed peace. While not entirely exclusive, each has its own internal logic and is driven by distinct forces. The paper reviews writings and commentaries by Russian thinkers as reflective of the identified scenarios by analyzing and comparing their arguments. From the Russian perspective, a stable peace is only possible by addressing issues of values, security, and economic and political relations among Russia, Ukraine, and Western countries. An analysis of Russia’s internal discussions presents an opportunity to understand the diversity of the country’s reasoning about future international relations.