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Substituting the Opposition under Electoral Authoritarianism: The Case of the Russian Regional Parliamentary Elections in 2021 选举威权主义下的反对派替代:以2021年俄罗斯地方议会选举为例
Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803011
Daniil Romanov, Ilya Fominykh, Ivan Ankudinov
Abstract Political scientists have long known that modern electoral autocracies can use quasi-democratic institutions to neutralize the danger posed by the opposition. Participation in elections by completely controlled spoiler parties proved to be an effective tool for maintaining authoritarian stability. However, researchers know few cases of how aging authoritarian regimes create systemic semi-independent opposition in order to increase turnout and split the votes of the systemic opposition. Based on a database of candidates from single-member districts ( SMD ) in the 2021 regional parliamentary elections in Russia with more than 2,200 unique observations, we show how the participation of candidates from the newly created New People, Green Alternative, and the Russian Party of Freedom and Justice affected the electoral results of United Russia and two parties of the ‘old’ systemic opposition.
政治学家早就知道,现代选举专制国家可以利用准民主制度来消除反对派构成的危险。事实证明,完全受控制的破坏者政党参与选举是维持专制稳定的有效工具。然而,研究人员几乎不知道老化的威权政权如何创造系统性的半独立反对派,以增加投票率并分裂系统性反对派的选票。基于2021年俄罗斯地区议会选举中来自单一成员区(SMD)候选人的数据库,以及2200多个独特的观察结果,我们展示了新成立的新人民党、绿色替代党和俄罗斯自由与正义党候选人的参与如何影响统一俄罗斯党和两个“旧”系统性反对派政党的选举结果。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Local Political Opportunity Structures: Protest and Social Control in Russia’s Provinces 探索地方政治机会结构:俄罗斯各省的抗议和社会控制
Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803008
Allison D. Evans
Abstract Why does the scale and intensity of protest vary so widely across Russian cities? This article answers this question by disaggregating political opportunity structures to consider the interaction between formal and informal political factors through a paired comparison of two similar Russian cities during the turbulent 1990s. Drawing on archival documents, interviews, and an analysis of local media, I argue that the observed variation depends on elite strategies for social control and local governmental institutions. Specifically, when a city’s institutions and political elite strategy match, either with undemocratic institutions and a closed political elite strategy, or with democratic institutions and an open political elite strategy, protests are likely to be small and insignificant. In contrast, when the institutional architecture and political elite strategies mismatch, protests are more likely to be large and intense because there is an opening for protest, but not institutionalized paths for participation.
为什么俄罗斯各城市抗议的规模和强度差异如此之大?本文通过对动荡的20世纪90年代两个相似的俄罗斯城市进行配对比较,通过分解政治机会结构来考虑正式和非正式政治因素之间的相互作用,从而回答了这个问题。根据档案文件、访谈和对当地媒体的分析,我认为观察到的变化取决于社会控制和地方政府机构的精英策略。具体来说,当一个城市的制度和政治精英战略匹配时,无论是非民主制度和封闭的政治精英战略,还是民主制度和开放的政治精英战略,抗议活动都可能是小而微不足道的。相反,当制度架构和政治精英的策略不匹配时,抗议活动更有可能是大规模和激烈的,因为有抗议的机会,但没有制度化的参与途径。
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引用次数: 0
Russia-Venezuela Relations (and US Interests): A Fully-Fledged and Long-Term Strategic Partnership? 俄委关系(及美国利益):成熟的长期战略伙伴关系?
Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803010
Ekaterina Kosevich
Abstract The strengthening of cooperation between Russia and Venezuela has become one of the characteristics of the system of international relations at the beginning of the 21st century. The previously “unfamiliar” states showed a rapid rapprochement in less than two decades, rewriting the established paradigm that only Cuba could be considered as the Kremlin’s strategic partner in Latin America. Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, unexpectedly led to rapid positive changes in US-Venezuelan relations, once again reminding the world that these countries have historically been important trade and economic partners, which will not change quickly. This raised the Kremlin’s concerns about the impending “loss” of Venezuela. The article provides an analysis of the current state of Russia-Venezuela relations, highlighting the factors that were behind every achievement of Russia in Venezuela, with the coming to power of a left-wing government that defined itself as socialist, anti-capitalist, anti-neoliberal and anti-hegemonic. Highlighting the main areas of the ongoing interaction between Caracas and Washington, the author casts doubt on the prevailing opinion in the literature that Russia has been able to form a full-fledged and long-term strategic partnership with Venezuela.
俄罗斯与委内瑞拉加强合作已成为21世纪初国际关系体系的特征之一。这两个以前“不熟悉”的国家在不到20年的时间里迅速恢复了友好关系,改写了俄罗斯在拉丁美洲只有古巴才能被视为战略伙伴的既定模式。俄罗斯于2022年2月24日开始的乌克兰“特别行动”出人意料地导致美委关系迅速发生积极变化,再次提醒世界,这两个国家历来是重要的经贸伙伴,这种关系不会很快改变。这引起了克里姆林宫对即将“失去”委内瑞拉的担忧。本文分析了俄罗斯与委内瑞拉关系的现状,强调了俄罗斯在委内瑞拉取得的每一项成就背后的因素,以及一个将自己定义为社会主义、反资本主义、反新自由主义和反霸权的左翼政府的上台。作者强调了加拉加斯和华盛顿之间正在进行的互动的主要领域,对文献中普遍认为俄罗斯已经能够与委内瑞拉建立全面和长期的战略伙伴关系的观点表示怀疑。
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引用次数: 0
Why U.S. – Russia Relations Failed: An Analysis of Competing National Security Narratives 美俄关系为何失败:对立国家安全叙事的分析
Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803009
Lev Sokolshchik, Yulia Sokolshchik
Abstract The following article addresses the question of why, despite a handful of certain overlapping interests, the U.S and Russia ultimately failed to reach a compromise during their negotiations at the start of the Ukrainian crisis. We aim to reveal the effects of competing national security narratives from both the United States and Russia, and its role in the deterioration of these relations. Though the current crisis in U.S. – Russia relations has been sometime in the making, it became particularly evident in the context of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Based on paradigmatic narrative interpretations, a qualitative text analysis, and a comparative analysis, we examine the two main aspects of the counties’ competing narratives: “national security storytelling” and state “threat perception”. We argue that due to their antagonistic identities, competing worldviews, and equally posing threat perceptions, these narratives have damaged the possibility to overcome contradictions between the United States and Russia. In the long term, these competing narratives may create the preconditions for a systemic confrontation between the countries in world politics.
以下文章探讨了为什么在乌克兰危机开始时,尽管存在一些重叠的利益,但美国和俄罗斯最终未能在谈判中达成妥协。我们的目标是揭示美国和俄罗斯相互竞争的国家安全叙事的影响,以及它在这些关系恶化中的作用。虽然目前美俄关系的危机已经酝酿了一段时间,但在俄罗斯在乌克兰的“特殊军事行动”的背景下,这种危机变得尤为明显。基于范式叙事解释、定性文本分析和比较分析,我们考察了国家竞争叙事的两个主要方面:“国家安全叙事”和国家“威胁感知”。我们认为,由于他们的敌对身份、相互竞争的世界观和同样构成威胁的看法,这些叙述破坏了克服美俄之间矛盾的可能性。从长远来看,这些相互竞争的叙事可能会为世界政治中两国之间的系统性对抗创造先决条件。
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引用次数: 0
The Weimar/Russia Comparison Revisited 魏玛与俄罗斯的比较再看
Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803007
Stephen E. Hanson, Jeffrey S Kopstein
Abstract Just over a quarter-century ago, the authors published a widely read essay comparing Weimar Germany and Post-Soviet Russia in historical perspective. After Russia’s unprovoked assault on Ukraine, comparisons of Vladimir Putin’s regime with Nazi Germany are once again tragically relevant. Reexamining our arguments from 1997 shows the continuing relevance of the variables we emphasized in that essay: the burdensome legacies of the past imperial regime, intense international pressure to marketize post-Soviet Russia’s statist economy, and Russia’s weak party system. Three main issues in our earlier article, in retrospect, required greater development: pinpointing the time span needed to assess regime change, distinguishing mobilizational and patrimonial forms of ‘anti-liberal statism,’ and exploring more fully the foreign policy options for would-be defenders of the liberal global order facing powerful revanchist challenges. We conclude that this sort of ‘replication’ of earlier research should be encouraged more often among political scientists adopting the comparative-historical approach.
就在25年前,作者发表了一篇广为流传的文章,从历史的角度比较了魏玛德国和后苏联时期的俄罗斯。在俄罗斯无端攻击乌克兰之后,弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)政权与纳粹德国的对比再一次具有悲剧性。重新审视我们从1997年开始的论点,会发现我们在那篇文章中强调的变量仍然具有相关性:过去帝国政权的繁重遗产,后苏联时代俄罗斯中央集权经济市场化的巨大国际压力,以及俄罗斯薄弱的政党制度。回顾过去,我们之前文章中的三个主要问题需要更大的发展:确定评估政权更迭所需的时间跨度,区分“反自由主义国家主义”的动员形式和世袭形式,以及更全面地探索面对强大复仇主义挑战的自由主义全球秩序的潜在捍卫者的外交政策选择。我们的结论是,采用比较历史方法的政治科学家应该更经常地鼓励这种对早期研究的“复制”。
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引用次数: 0
Legitimacies Conflict: The Evolution of Perceived Legitimacy in Modern Russia 合法性冲突:现代俄罗斯感知合法性的演变
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803004
Nikolay Ternov, Dmitry Mikhailov
The paper proposes a new interpretation of the evolution of legitimacy in Russia based on two pillars: the sociological tradition of legitimacy research, and David Easton’s typology. In this regard, the political process in Russia can be perceived as a conflicting coexistence of various legitimacies. The very conflicting variations begin to prevail in the public consciousness at certain stages of modern Russia existence, not forcing out each other completely.The trends that prevailed in the definition of Russian statehood allow us to distinguish three stages in the legitimacy evolution, which conditionally correspond to each decade of the existence of modern Russia: the “ideological” stage (90s-00s) and the “structural” one (00s-2012). We define the contemporary period as “personal” that emerged after 2012. The current political crisis in Russia is interpreted as a conflict of “structural” and “personal” legitimacy, that is unfolding against the backdrop of attempts by the authorities to compensate for the lack of trust, with technologies of “quick” self-legitimacy.
本文基于合法性研究的社会学传统和大卫·伊斯顿的类型学两大支柱,对俄罗斯合法性的演变提出了一种新的解释。在这方面,俄罗斯的政治进程可以被看作是各种合法性的冲突共存。在现代俄罗斯存在的某些阶段,这些相互冲突的变化开始在公众意识中盛行,而不是完全相互排挤。在俄罗斯国家地位定义中盛行的趋势使我们能够区分合法性演变的三个阶段,这些阶段有条件地对应于现代俄罗斯存在的每一个十年:“意识形态”阶段(90年代至00年代)和“结构”阶段(00年代至2012年)。我们将当代定义为2012年之后出现的“个人”时期。俄罗斯当前的政治危机被解读为“结构性”和“个人”合法性的冲突,这种冲突是在当局试图用“快速”自我合法性技术弥补信任缺失的背景下展开的。
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引用次数: 0
The 1999 Moscow Bombings Reconsidered 1999年莫斯科爆炸案再思考
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803005
Robert C. Otto
This paper examines the evidence that the Federal Security Service (FSB) was behind the 1999 apartment bombings to bring Vladimir Putin to power. Although this version of events may prove true, this article posits that evidence for this assertion is lacking and that current arguments for this version have considerable flaws. In addition, although the official version, despite its weaknesses may also well prove true, the paper posits an as yet an unexplored version to explain the bombings as an “inside job.” The paper looks at the atmosphere prevailing in Moscow that Fall and Berezovskii’s purported role in bringing Vladimir Putin to power which is often overstated. Nonetheless, Putin’s failure to conduct a proper investigation of the bombings makes him complicit in them.
本文研究了联邦安全局(FSB)是1999年弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)掌权公寓爆炸案幕后黑手的证据。尽管这一版本的事件可能被证明是真实的,但本文认为,缺乏这一断言的证据,而且目前这一版本中的论点存在相当大的缺陷。此外,尽管官方版本尽管存在弱点,但也很可能被证明是真的,但该论文提出了一个尚未探索的版本,将爆炸事件解释为“内部工作”。该论文着眼于莫斯科盛行的秋季气氛,以及别列佐夫斯基在让弗拉基米尔·普京上台中所扮演的角色,这一点往往被夸大了。尽管如此,普京未能对爆炸事件进行适当调查,这使他成为爆炸事件的同谋。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Politics in Authoritarian Regimes: Waste Management in Russian Regions 威权体制下的环境政治:俄罗斯地区的废物管理
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803002
O. Masyutina, Ekaterina Paustyan, G. Yakovlev
Russian regions exhibit significant variation in their waste management efforts, despite the urgency of the problem and the importance of waste management for all regional governments. To examine this variation, we apply the concept of authoritarian environmentalism, which suggests that authoritarian governments have distinctive capabilities for tackling certain environmental challenges. Analysis of a regional panel data set for the period 2012-2019 shows that our measure of the degree of authoritarianism – the share of votes for the ruling party United Russia in parliamentary elections – has a strong positive effect on the share of recycled waste in the Russian regions. This result indicates that more authoritarian regions tend to recycle more household waste than less authoritarian regions. However, it could also be the case that more authoritarian governments are simply more likely to manipulate their environmental statistics to show better environmental performance.
尽管问题紧迫,废物管理对所有地区政府都很重要,但俄罗斯各地区在废物管理方面的努力差异很大。为了研究这种差异,我们采用了威权环境主义的概念,这表明威权政府在应对某些环境挑战方面具有独特的能力。对2012-2019年期间的区域面板数据集的分析表明,我们对威权主义程度的衡量标准——执政党统一俄罗斯党在议会选举中的得票率——对俄罗斯各地区回收废物的比例产生了强烈的积极影响。这一结果表明,威权程度较高的地区比威权程度较低的地区倾向于回收更多的生活垃圾。然而,也有可能是更专制的政府更有可能操纵他们的环境统计数据,以显示更好的环境绩效。
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引用次数: 0
“Shadow of the Empire”: Rethinking Russian Imperial Sovereignty in the Context of the War against Ukraine, 2022 “帝国的阴影”:在乌克兰战争背景下重新思考俄罗斯帝国主权,2022
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803006
R. Zaporozhchenko
Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine demonstrated the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. The invasion was not only a shocking event, but also a process of geopolitical transformation. Russia, which has a long history of imperialism, in the 21st century is trying to break the established global world order and propose an alternative one. But the tools it uses are tools of violence, domination, blackmail, and intimidation. This is particularly important to explore in the context of the Russian leadership’s construction of imperial sovereignty, a form of political power used to expand and consolidate the empire’s influence in a particular geopolitical space: the post-Soviet space. This article aims to show the nature of Russian imperial sovereignty as well as the mechanisms of its dissemination, which are modus operandi – dynamic structures of reproduction of the system of power relations.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事入侵表明了克里姆林宫的帝国野心。入侵不仅是一个令人震惊的事件,也是一个地缘政治转型的过程。拥有悠久帝国主义历史的俄罗斯,在21世纪试图打破现有的世界秩序,提出另一种世界秩序。但它使用的工具是暴力、统治、勒索和恐吓。在俄罗斯领导层构建帝国主权的背景下,探索这一点尤为重要,帝国主权是一种政治权力形式,用于扩大和巩固帝国在特定地缘政治空间中的影响力:后苏联空间。本文旨在揭示俄罗斯帝国主权的本质及其传播机制,即权力关系体系再生产的动态结构。
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引用次数: 0
Livid about Liberalism: Putin, State Controlled Television and Kremlin Portrayals of Liberalism 对自由主义怒不可遏:普京、国家控制的电视台和克里姆林宫对自由主义的描绘
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803003
Adam Sykes
Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a keen interest in questions of history and political theory over his more than two decades at or near the apex of Russian power. These questions became particularly salient in Russia’s political discourse after Putin returned to power in 2012 and inaugurated the so-called “conservative turn.” This paper examines how Putin characterized liberalism between his return to power in 2012 and the start of the “special military operation” in Ukraine on 24 February 2022. It contends that, over this decade, Putin consistently positioned himself as a moderate critic of Western liberalism as opposed to an uncompromising ideologue, even after the 2014 Ukraine crisis. To highlight this tendency, this paper simultaneously examines two prominent Russian state television personalities – Dmitrii Kiselev and Vladimir Solov’ev – who have used strident rhetoric in describing Western liberalism, notably after the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.
20多年来,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)一直对历史和政治理论问题表现出浓厚的兴趣。在普京2012年重新掌权并开启所谓的“保守转向”之后,这些问题在俄罗斯的政治话语中变得尤为突出。本文考察了普京在2012年重新掌权到2022年2月24日乌克兰“特别军事行动”开始之间是如何描述自由主义的。它认为,在过去十年中,普京一直将自己定位为西方自由主义的温和批评者,而不是不妥协的理论家,即使在2014年乌克兰危机之后也是如此。为了突出这一趋势,本文同时考察了两位著名的俄罗斯国家电视台名人——德米特里·基塞列夫和弗拉基米尔·索洛夫耶夫——他们在描述西方自由主义时使用了尖锐的言辞,尤其是在2014年乌克兰危机之后。
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引用次数: 0
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Russian Politics
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