Local population changes as a spatial varying multiscale process: The Italian case

Abstract

The population dynamics in Italy show a strong spatial heterogeneity within a framework of persistent demographic territorial disparities. From a local point of view, it is necessary to understand what demographic determinants govern this process. In the paper, we model the population change according to a local (i.e., spatial varying coefficients) multiscale approach. To this aim, local demographic growth rates of each Italian municipality for the period 2011 – 2019 were estimated and modeled by means of a classic a-spatial global model (i.e., ordinary least-square), and a multiscale geographically weighted regression. The multiscale dimensions of local population changes are therefore analyzed by means of three sub-dimensions: Level of influence, scalability, and specificity. The results show that the determinants of local population changes are not spatially constant and that they vary in their effect at different geographical scales.