Reliability sensitivity analysis of dropped object on submarine pipelines

IF 0.7 Q4 ENGINEERING, OCEAN Ocean Systems Engineering-An International Journal Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI:10.12989/OSE.2019.9.2.135
Sina Taghizadeh Edmollaii, P. Edalat, Mojtaba Dyanati
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

One of the safest and the most economical methods to transfer oil and gas is pipeline system. Prediction and prevention of pipeline failures during its assessed lifecycle has considerable importance. The dropped object is one of the accidental scenarios in the failure of the submarine pipelines. In this paper, using Monte Carlo Sampling, the probability of damage to a submarine pipeline due to a box-shaped dropped object has been calculated in terms of dropped object impact frequency and energy transfer according to the DNV-RP-F107. Finally, Reliability sensitivity analysis considering random variables is carried out to determine the effect intensity of each parameter on damage probability. It is concluded that impact area and drag coefficient have the highest sensitivity and mass and add mass coefficient have the lowest sensitivity on probability of failure.
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海底管道掉落物可靠性灵敏度分析
输送石油和天然气最安全、最经济的方法之一是管道系统。在评估的生命周期内预测和预防管道故障具有相当重要的意义。坠落物体是海底管道故障中的意外场景之一。本文采用蒙特卡罗抽样法,根据DNV-RP-F107,从落物撞击频率和能量传递的角度计算了箱形落物对海底管道的损伤概率。最后,进行了考虑随机变量的可靠性灵敏度分析,确定了各参数对损伤概率的影响强度。结果表明,冲击面积和阻力系数对失效概率的敏感性最高,质量和附加质量系数对失效几率的敏感性最低。
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期刊介绍: The OCEAN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING focuses on the new research and development efforts to advance the understanding of sciences and technologies in ocean systems engineering. The main subject of the journal is the multi-disciplinary engineering of ocean systems. Areas covered by the journal include; * Undersea technologies: AUVs, submersible robot, manned/unmanned submersibles, remotely operated underwater vehicle, sensors, instrumentation, measurement, and ocean observing systems; * Ocean systems technologies: ocean structures and structural systems, design and production, ocean process and plant, fatigue, fracture, reliability and risk analysis, dynamics of ocean structure system, probabilistic dynamics analysis, fluid-structure interaction, ship motion and mooring system, and port engineering; * Ocean hydrodynamics and ocean renewable energy, wave mechanics, buoyancy and stability, sloshing, slamming, and seakeeping; * Multi-physics based engineering analysis, design and testing: underwater explosions and their effects on ocean vehicle systems, equipments, and surface ships, survivability and vulnerability, shock, impact and vibration; * Modeling and simulations; * Underwater acoustics technologies.
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