Current sika deer effective population size is near to reaching its historically highest level in the Japanese archipelago by release from hunting rather than climate change and top predator extinction

Abstract

Deer species were repeatedly overexploited and protected for their meat and fur and they had strong impacts on ecosystems and human society by damaging crops and planted trees, altering vegetation, deer vehicle collision, and increasing ticks that vector zoonosis. To accomplish appropriate population management, the historical demography and its main driver need to be clarified. In this study, we estimated the historical demography of effective population size (Ne) of sika deer (Cervus nippon Temminck) in Hokkaido and Hyogo Prefectures of the Japanese archipelago. We estimated Ne of >100 generations from present (2020) by folded single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) frequency spectra and, within 100 generations from present, by linkage disequilibrium between SNP. In Hokkaido, Ne drastically increased around 3.0 ky BP and decreased around 100–150 years ago with the assumption of their generation length as 4 or 9 years. The Ne decreased by a 10th before the recent bottleneck. In Hyogo, Ne increased around 80 and 1 ky BP and decreased around 100–250 years ago. Ne decreased by a 100th before the recent bottleneck. After these recent bottlenecks, Ne of both regions recovered and the current Ne has nearly reaches the highest level of the last 100 ky BP. Literature survey and paleoclimate indicates that the decrease and increase of Ne of sika deer in Japanese archipelago may be caused by variations in the hunting activity of humans rather than climate change or the top predator extinction.