‘ Two Sides of the Same Coin ’—A Proposed Model for Delivering a Whole System Serial Crime Reduction Plan

Abstract

This article describes how existing and newly emerged research can be combined to develop a more systematic model for responding to serial crimes. We believe that the model offers police services a more efficient and effective way to optimize the deployment and scheduling of police resources, and their associated activity, to combat serial offending. We suggest that the likely subsequent prevention and reduction of demand achieved will go some way to alleviate the impact of serial offending behavior. To develop our model, we draw upon criminological literature including theories of routine activity, rational choice, and situational crime prevention. By incorporating existing methods of hotspot identification, and combining these with processes to identify and respond to serial offending, we propose a six-stage, Dual Offender—Victim, Crime Prevention and Reduction model, that includes (1) crime linkage to identify serial offending; (2) near-repeat pattern analysis to identify the areas experiencing, and at immediate risk of victimization; (3) THE prediction of future, spatially displaced hotspots at high risk of victimization; (4) geographical profiling to identify the area of the likely home or base of the offender; (5) suspect mapping, ranking, targeting, and early intervention; and (6) tracking of spatial displacement, and offender management to maintain model effectiveness.