Modeling the spatial distribution of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz, 1865 in the Black Sea using a fuzzy rule-based system

Abstract

Species distribution models can predict species occurrences in areas where no data is available by finding relationships between occurrences and environmental parameters. In this study, we applied a fuzzy rule-based system to model the spatial distribution of Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Black Sea and predict the probability of its presence throughout the sea. Six variables were used as predictors, including water turbidity, organic and inorganic particulate carbon, photosynthetically active radiation, light absorption by phytoplankton, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a concentration. The results revealed a 0.807 accuracy of the model based on the confusion matrix. The results also showed that photosynthetically active radiation and sea surface temperature were the most important predictors shaping the distribution of this species. The findings also showed that the northern Black Sea was with the highest probability of presence, especially in Ukraine and Russia’s coastal areas. In the coastal areas of Turkey, the highest presence probability was found near Rize, Trabzon, Ordu, and from Sinop to Zonguldak. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the Turkish coastal area is crucial to better understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic influences on the further distribution patterns of this invasive ctenophore in the southeastern Black Sea.