Mortality and cause of death projections in Mexico, 1980-2050

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the death rate of Mexican population from 1980 to 2015, and estimate the death rate according to the seven main causes of death in 2050. For this purpose, four data sources are used: Population and housing censuses, population and housing statistics and inter-country surveys (2015). In addition, specific rates of standardized mortality by age and sex were estimated, and death projections were calculated using gamma estimation. The results show that by 2050, the main cause of death will be non-communicable diseases, also known as chronic degenerative diseases. This may lead to increased economic expenditure on health care and increased adult care time. All of these may lead to changes in social roles and workload.