Factors affecting electric vehicle acceptance, energy demand and CO2 emissions in Pakistan

Abstract

This work aims to investigate the factors accelerating electric vehicle (EV) acceptance at the consumer end in Pakistan and analyzes the implications for policymakers for a fast-track EV transition. The study further investigates the high EV penetration scenario resulting from the technology acceptance model (TAM's 80% EV) and its impact on energy demand and CO₂ emissions. The study design used a quantitative analysis method with the survey as an instrument for data collection regarding EV acceptance. The model under investigation was adapted from the famous Technology-Acceptance Models (TAMs) and modified with other significant predictors evidenced in the literature. Correlation and stepwise regression were performed with a multicollinearity check for model hypothesis testing. Out of six predictors, only four factors were significant in accelerating the EV transition. Financial policies were found to be highly significant, followed by environmental concern, facilitating conditions and perceived ease of use. The research then used exponential smoothing forecasts for transport demand and developed an EV penetration scenario based on modified TAM results. The results highlight the significant increase in transport demand and the opportunity for Pakistan to limit passenger transport emissions to 36.6 ​MT instead of 61.6 ​MT by 2040.