{"title":"We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years","authors":"Timothy W. Guinnane","doi":"10.1017/s0022050723000293","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ <jats:italic>Atlas of World Population History</jats:italic>, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.” Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable.“… we haven’t just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often.”—McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11)","PeriodicalId":51435,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic History","volume":"32 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic History","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000293","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.” Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable.“… we haven’t just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often.”—McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11)
经济学家根据过去两千年来世界上每个国家的人口报告了结果。这份资料的来源是McEvedy和Jones的《世界人口历史地图集》(Atlas of World Population History)，其中包括了许多估计，这些估计仅仅是猜测，并没有反映1978年以来的研究。McEvedy和Jones经常根据他们对特定经济体的看法来推断人口规模，这使得他们的估计不能很好地代表经济增长。他们的四舍五入意味着他们的测量误差不是“经典的”。一些经济学家以毫无根据的方式对地区进行分类，从而加剧了这一错误。基于McEvedy和Jones的计量经济学结果是不可靠的。“……我们不只是把数字从天上拉出来。嗯，不经常。——mcevedy and Jones(1978，第11页)
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic History is devoted to the multidisciplinary study of history and economics, and is of interest not only to economic historians but to social and demographic historians, as well as economists in general. The journal has broad coverage, in terms of both methodology and geographic scope. Topics covered include money and banking, trade, manufacturing, technology, transportation, industrial organisation, labour, agriculture, servitude, demography, education, economic growth, and the role of government and regulation. In addition, an extensive book review section keeps readers informed about the latest work in economic history and related fields.
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