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Political Conflict and Development Dynamics: Economic Legacies of the Cultural Revolution 政治冲突与发展动力:文化大革命的经济遗产
1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000384
Liang Bai, Lingwei Wu
As a multi-faceted socio-political movement in twentieth-century China, the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) witnessed conflict and social upheaval. This paper investigates its economic legacies, exploiting geographic variation in revolutionary intensity, measured by the number of resulting deaths. Using a newly assembled county-level panel dataset over five decades, we find worse-affected areas performed slightly better at baseline, but were slower to industrialize. This effect was large in the early 1980s before diminishing to become insignificant by 2000. Using individual-level census data, we find more-exposed cohorts are less likely to obtain higher education degrees and to work in professional and entrepreneurial occupations.
文化大革命(1966-1976)是20世纪中国一场多方面的社会政治运动,它见证了冲突和社会动荡。本文研究了革命的经济遗产,利用革命强度的地理差异,通过由此导致的死亡人数来衡量。通过对过去50年新组建的县级面板数据集的分析,我们发现,受影响最严重的地区在基线水平上的表现略好,但工业化速度较慢。这种影响在20世纪80年代早期很大,到2000年逐渐减弱,变得微不足道。使用个人层面的普查数据,我们发现更多暴露的人群不太可能获得更高的教育学位,也不太可能从事专业和创业职业。
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引用次数: 0
The Glorious Revolution and Access to Parliament 光荣革命与进入议会
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000281
Kara Dimitruk
This paper shows that the Glorious Revolution of 1688 broadened access to Parliament for families needing rights to sell land in so-called estate bills. Bills were on average 14–27 percentage points more likely to be for gentry families and not aristocratic families in legislative sessions after the Revolution compared to sessions before. Regression and archival evidence suggest that parliamentary certainty was primarily responsible for improved access by altering families’ entry calculus and brokers’ recruitment of new business. More broadly, the paper provides insight into the ways in which political institutions affect access to and the provision of property rights.
本文表明,1688年的光荣革命扩大了需要以所谓的地产法案出售土地权利的家庭进入议会的机会。在革命后的立法会议上,与之前的会议相比,贵族家庭而不是贵族家庭的法案平均高出14-27个百分点。回归和档案证据表明,议会的确定性主要是通过改变家庭的入门计算和经纪人招募新业务来改善准入。更广泛地说,本文提供了对政治制度影响获取和提供财产权的方式的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Churches as Social Insurance: Oil Risk and Religion in the U.S. South 教会作为社会保险:美国南部的石油风险与宗教
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000268
Andreas Ferrara, Patrick A. Testa
Religious communities are important providers of social insurance. We show that risk associated with oil dependence facilitated the proliferation of religious communities throughout the U.S. South during the twentieth century. Known oil abundance predicts higher rates of church membership, which are not driven by selective migration or local economic development. Consistent with a social insurance channel, greater oil price volatility increases effects, while greater access to credit, state-level social insurance, and private insurance crowd out effects. Religious communities limit spillovers of oil price shocks across sectors, reducing increases in unemployment following a negative shock by about 30 percent.
宗教团体是社会保险的重要提供者。我们表明,在20世纪,与石油依赖相关的风险促进了整个美国南部宗教团体的扩散。已知的石油储量预示着更高的教会成员率,这不是由选择性移民或当地经济发展驱动的。与社会保险渠道一致,更大的油价波动会增加效应,而更容易获得信贷、国家级社会保险和私人保险则会挤出效应。宗教团体限制了油价冲击在各个部门的溢出效应,将负面冲击后的失业率增幅降低了约30%。
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引用次数: 1
We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years 我们不知道过去两千年世界上每个国家的人口
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000293
Timothy W. Guinnane
Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.” Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable.“… we haven’t just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often.”—McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11)
经济学家根据过去两千年来世界上每个国家的人口报告了结果。这份资料的来源是McEvedy和Jones的《世界人口历史地图集》(Atlas of World Population History),其中包括了许多估计,这些估计仅仅是猜测,并没有反映1978年以来的研究。McEvedy和Jones经常根据他们对特定经济体的看法来推断人口规模,这使得他们的估计不能很好地代表经济增长。他们的四舍五入意味着他们的测量误差不是“经典的”。一些经济学家以毫无根据的方式对地区进行分类,从而加剧了这一错误。基于McEvedy和Jones的计量经济学结果是不可靠的。“……我们不只是把数字从天上拉出来。嗯,不经常。——mcevedy and Jones(1978,第11页)
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引用次数: 2
Plantation Mortgage-Backed Securities: Evidence from Surinam in the Eighteenth Century 种植园抵押担保证券:来自18世纪苏里南的证据
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1017/s002205072300027x
Abe de Jong, Tim Kooijmans, Peter Koudijs
In the second half of the eighteenth century, Dutch bankers channeled investors’ funds to sugar and coffee plantations in the Caribbean, Surinam in particular. Agency problems between plantation owners, bankers, and investors led to an arrangement called negotiaties. Bankers oversaw plantations’ cash flows and placed mortgage debt with investors. We demonstrate how this securitization arrangement worked using market-wide data and detailed records from banker F. W. Hudig. During the boom, debt contracts and their securitization were an effective solution for planters, bankers, and investors. However, the market crashed after an oversupply of credit. This led to inefficient restructuring due to debt overhang.
在18世纪下半叶,荷兰银行家将投资者的资金引导到加勒比地区,特别是苏里南的糖和咖啡种植园。种植园主、银行家和投资者之间的代理问题导致了一种被称为谈判的安排。银行家监督种植园的现金流,并向投资者提供抵押贷款。我们使用市场数据和银行家F. W. Hudig的详细记录来演示这种证券化安排是如何运作的。在经济繁荣时期,债务合同及其证券化是种植园主、银行家和投资者的有效解决方案。然而,在信贷供应过剩之后,市场崩溃了。由于债务积压,这导致了效率低下的重组。
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引用次数: 0
British-French Technology Transfer from the Revolution to Louis Philippe (1791–1844): Evidence from Patent Data 从大革命到路易·菲利普(1791-1844)的英法技术转移:来自专利数据的证据
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000232
Alessandro Nuvolari, Gaspare Tortorici, Michelangelo Vasta

This paper examines the patterns of technology transfer from Britain to France during the early phases of industrializing using a dataset comprising all patents granted in France in the period 1791–1844. Exploiting the peculiarities of French legislation, we construct an array of patent quality indicators and investigate their determinants. We find that patents filed by British inventors or French inventors with personal connections to British inventors were of relatively higher quality. Overall, our results show that the French innovation system was capable of attracting and effectively absorbing key technologies from Britain.

本文利用1791年至1844年期间法国授予的所有专利数据集,研究了工业化早期英国向法国的技术转移模式。利用法国立法的特殊性,我们构建了一系列专利质量指标,并研究了它们的决定因素。我们发现,英国发明人或与英国发明人有个人关系的法国发明人申请的专利质量相对较高。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,法国的创新体系能够吸引并有效吸收英国的关键技术。
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引用次数: 5
The Country They Built: Dynamic and Complex Indigenous Economies in North America before 1492 《他们建立的国家:1492年以前北美地区充满活力和复杂的土著经济
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000153
Ann M. Carlos
The economic history of the United States is that of Europeans and their institutions. Indigenous nations are absent. This absence is partly due to a lack of data but perhaps also to a perception that Indigenous communities contributed little to U.S. growth. Three case studies explore the economic complexity and social stratification across different nations/regions prior to contact. Migrants to the United States came not to an empty land but one with settled agriculture, complex production processes, and extensive trade relations, upon which Europeans built.
美国的经济史就是欧洲人及其制度的经济史。没有土著民族。这种缺失部分是由于缺乏数据,但也可能是由于人们认为土著社区对美国经济增长贡献不大。三个案例研究探讨了接触前不同国家/地区的经济复杂性和社会分层。来到美国的移民来到的不是一片空旷的土地,而是一片有固定农业、复杂生产过程和广泛贸易关系的土地,欧洲人在此基础上建立了自己的家园。
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引用次数: 0
Reconstruction Aid, Public Infrastructure, and Economic Development: The Case of the Marshall Plan in Italy 重建援助、公共基础设施与经济发展:以意大利马歇尔计划为例
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000128
Nicola Bianchi, Michela Giorcelli

The Marshall Plan (1948–1952) was the largest aid transfer in history. This paper estimates its effects on Italy’s postwar economic development. It exploits differences between Italian provinces in the value of reconstruction grants they received. Provinces that could modernize their infrastructure more quickly experienced higher increases in agricultural production, especially for perishable crops. In the same provinces, we observe larger investments in labor-saving machines, the entry of more firms into the industrial sector, and a larger expansion of the industrial and service workforces.

马歇尔计划(1948-1952)是历史上规模最大的援助转移。本文估计了其对意大利战后经济发展的影响。它利用了意大利各省收到的重建赠款价值的差异。能够更快实现基础设施现代化的省份,农业产量增长更快,尤其是易腐作物。在这些省份,我们观察到对节省劳动力的机器的更大投资,更多的公司进入工业部门,以及工业和服务业劳动力的更大扩张。
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引用次数: 0
The Feudal Origins of Manorial Prosperity: Social Interactions in Eleventh-Century England 庄园繁荣的封建起源:11世纪英国的社会互动
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000116
Vincent Delabastita, Sebastiaan Maes

Does the prosperity of medieval manors depend on their position in the feudal system? How large are these effects? And what are the underlying economic mechanisms? Using Domesday Book, a unique country-wide survey conducted by William the Conqueror, we reinterpret the eleventh-century English feudal system as a network in which manors are linked to one another based on their common ownership structure. Both a reduced-form and a more structural approach reveal the existence of external economies of scale: manorial prosperity was closely intertwined with the fortune of feudal peers. Our findings quantitatively establish the existence of feudal coordination in High-Medieval agricultural activities, revealing how institutionalized interactions could serve to mitigate transaction costs.

中世纪庄园的繁荣是否取决于它们在封建制度中的地位?这些影响有多大?潜在的经济机制是什么?《末日审判书》是由征服者威廉进行的一项独特的全国性调查,我们将11世纪的英国封建制度重新解释为一个网络,在这个网络中,庄园根据共同的所有权结构彼此联系在一起。简化形式和更结构化的方法都揭示了外部规模经济的存在:庄园的繁荣与封建贵族的财富紧密交织在一起。我们的研究结果定量地确定了中世纪农业活动中封建协调的存在,揭示了制度化的互动如何有助于降低交易成本。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Business Cycle Conditions on Firm Dynamics and Composition 经济周期条件对企业动态和构成的影响
IF 2.1 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1017/s0022050723000086
Cihan Artunç

This paper estimates the causal impact of short-term aggregate fluctuations in Egypt, 1911–48, using global cotton price shocks. Firm entry was procyclical, and exit was acyclical. There were persistent differences between cohorts over the cycle; expansionary cohorts were of lower quality. The evidence supports models of firm entry with ex-ante heterogeneity. The findings highlight the extensive margin of entry as the primary adjustment mechanism. As a result, recessions had a strong “isolation” effect. This nature of firm entry amplified and propagated temporary price shocks.

本文利用全球棉花价格冲击估计了1911 - 1948年埃及短期总波动的因果影响。企业进入是顺周期的,退出是非周期的。在整个周期中,队列之间存在持续的差异;扩张性队列的质量较低。证据支持具有事前异质性的企业进入模型。研究结果强调,广泛的进入边际是主要的调整机制。因此,衰退具有强烈的“隔离”效应。企业进入的这种性质放大并传播了暂时的价格冲击。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Economic History
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