Inference Towards the Best Explanation: Reflections on the Issue of Climate Change

IF 1.3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Israel Journal of Ecology & Evolution Pub Date : 2015-05-18 DOI:10.1080/15659801.2015.1038035
R. Holt
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Science is an organized enterprise of inquiry which tries to tie together multiple strands of evidence to craft coherent explanations for disparate patterns in the natural world. Philosophers call this enterprise “inference towards the best explanation”. Such inferences at times depend upon detailed quantitative models, but at times one can rely upon the confluence of multiple strands of qualitative evidence. Humans are having unquestionable influences upon many aspects of the earth system at present, on land, in freshwater systems, and indeed the ocean, including devastating impacts on biodiversity. There are many patterns in the world at present – shrinking glaciers, shifting seasonal patterns in species’ life histories, and altered spatial distributions – which point to the signal of climate change, independent of the details of quantitative climate models. Yet, there are many other factors at play, often confounding clear assessment of the specific role of climate change in observed changes in the wor...
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对最佳解释的推论:对气候变化问题的思考
科学是一项有组织的探索事业,它试图将多种证据联系在一起,为自然界中不同的模式做出连贯的解释。哲学家们把这种事业称为“向最佳解释的推理”。这种推论有时依赖于详细的定量模型,但有时可以依靠多种定性证据的汇合。目前,人类对地球系统的许多方面,包括陆地、淡水系统,甚至海洋,都产生了无可置疑的影响,包括对生物多样性的破坏性影响。目前世界上有许多模式——冰川萎缩、物种生活史的季节模式变化以及空间分布的改变——这些模式都指向了气候变化的信号,而这些信号与定量气候模型的细节无关。然而,还有许多其他因素在起作用,经常使对气候变化在观测到的世界变化中具体作用的明确评估变得混乱……
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来源期刊
Israel Journal of Ecology & Evolution
Israel Journal of Ecology & Evolution 环境科学-进化生物学
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
7
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: The Israel Journal of Ecology and Evolution includes high-quality original research and review papers that advance our knowledge and understanding of the function, diversity, abundance, distribution, and evolution of organisms. We give equal consideration to all submissions regardless of geography.
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