Urban IDPs and Poverty: Analysis of the Effect of Mass Forced Displacement on Urban Poverty in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of mass forced displacement on urban poverty in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The process of displacement in Bosnia and Herzegovina involved “forced evictions”, implying no choice in displacement decision, meaning that this type of rural-urban migration was not a rational decision driven by economic motives. Consequently, this can possibly lead to a larger incidence of poverty among displaced people. The paper starts with a discussion of the specific features of the process of forced displacement and their possibly different effect on urban poverty compared to voluntary migration, based on qualitative evidence collected through interviews with people who experienced forced displacement during the conflict in the 1990s. Then, the probit model of determinants of poverty, based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey data, was estimated in order to provide empirical evidence of the effect of mass forced displacement on urban poverty, as well as the difference in the poverty incidence among displaced people compared to voluntary migrants. The results suggest that consumption is significantly lower among displaced households, while incidence of poverty is not affected by displacement status. The evidence also contributes to the migration literature by providing specific results about the relationship between mass forced displacement and urban poverty.