Spatial analysis of determinants affecting the total number of Covid-19 cases of provinces in Turkey

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-102-116

Serkan Cahit Dinç, N. Erilli

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Covid-19 which is accepted as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation, has created a global panic effect all over the world. To stop this epidemic, in which more than 4 million people died as of July 2021, researches are being carried out on all kinds of issues related to the disease. In this study, a spatial econometric analysis of the determinants of the total number of Covid-19 cases in the provinces in Turkey between February 8, 2021, and May 7, 2021, was conducted. The existence of spatial autocorrelation was investigated through the Moran I test, and as a result, the Spatial Lagged Model (SAR) was found to be the most appropriate model. According to the results of the spatial analysis, it has been determined that the change in the total number of cases in a province will be in the same direction in the neighboring provinces of that province. A spatial interaction finding was obtained between the provinces and a significant and positive relationship was found between the total number of Covid-19 cases and the population density and the number of people over the age of sixty. Similarly, a significant and negative relationship was found with the average temperature and the total number of healthcare workers, and no significant relationship was found with the literacy rate.

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影响土耳其各省Covid-19病例总数的决定因素的空间分析

新冠肺炎被世界卫生组织认定为大流行，在世界各地引发了全球恐慌。截至2021年7月，已有400多万人死于这一流行病，为了制止这一流行病，正在对与该疾病有关的各种问题进行研究。在本研究中，对2021年2月8日至2021年5月7日期间土耳其各省Covid-19病例总数的决定因素进行了空间计量经济学分析。通过Moran I检验考察了空间自相关的存在性，发现空间滞后模型(spatial lag Model, SAR)是最合适的模型。根据空间分析的结果，可以确定一个省的病例总数在该省邻近省份的变化方向相同。省域间存在空间交互作用，新冠肺炎病例总数与人口密度、60岁以上人口数量呈显著正相关。同样，与平均气温和医务人员总数呈显著负相关，与识字率无显著相关。

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

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期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.