Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-74-96

E. Podkolzina, Lada Kuletskaya, O. Demidova

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Abstract

We argue neighbors play a crucial role in voting behavior for the main candidate in Russia. Moreover, the official status of the region and connectedness with the ruling party matter. The neighborhood effects we explain with the idea that voters base on public choices and illustrate it on the example of Privolzhskiy federal district regions with an emphasis on Tatarstan and its effect on voting on the municipal level. The Republic of Tatarstan is an interesting case also because it is the republic in Russia that has reference to sovereignty in its constitution and at the same time is loyal to the Kremlin. This paper presents a detailed spatial analysis of voters’ responses at the municipal level covering Russian presidential elections in 2018 year using the example of the Republic of Tatarstan and its surrounding regions. The preferred 2-step OLS specification with instruments shows that Tatarstan had a strong positive effect on neighboring regions in terms of voting for the main candidate, while surrounding regions voted differently and negatively affected each other. Municipalities with better economic conditions had a negative impact on the share of votes for the main candidate and positive for the opposite.

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投票偏好的空间模型:鞑靼斯坦共和国的“谜团”

我们认为，邻国在俄罗斯主要候选人的投票行为中起着至关重要的作用。此外，该地区的官方地位以及与执政党的联系也很重要。我们以选民基于公共选择的观点来解释邻里效应，并以鞑靼斯坦为重点的Privolzhskiy联邦区及其对市政层面投票的影响为例进行了说明。鞑靼斯坦共和国也是一个有趣的例子，因为它是俄罗斯的一个共和国，它在宪法中提到主权，同时又忠于克里姆林宫。本文以鞑靼斯坦共和国及其周边地区为例，对2018年俄罗斯总统选举中市级选民的反应进行了详细的空间分析。用仪器优选的两步OLS规范表明，鞑靼斯坦对邻近地区的主要候选人投票有很强的积极影响，而周边地区的投票不同，相互之间产生负面影响。经济条件较好的城市对主要候选人的选票比例产生了负面影响，而对相反的候选人产生了积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.