Simulating our ability to accurately detect abrupt changes in assemblage-based paleoenvironmental proxies

Abstract

Resolving abrupt environmental changes in sedimentary records is critical to understanding environmental perturbations relevant on human timescales. The paleontological assemblage mixer (paleoAM) framework developed here simulates sedimentary records to measure the preservation potential of abrupt changes in assemblage-based faunal proxies while varying environmental background conditions, excursion magnitudes and durations, bioturbation, sedimentation rates, and sampling completeness. Using a record of fossil benthic foraminifera, we apply paleoAM to quantitatively determine how distinct from background conditions and how enduring an assemblage change must be to be accurately detected. At the high sedimentation rates of the case study, century-long low-oxygen events frequently have a high probability of being sampled and accurately detected, quantitatively estimated with simulations across varying sedimentation rates