A Study on the Development Trends of GDP, Population and Primary Energy Consumption by Grey-based Dynamic Mode

Abstract

This paper proposes a new grey-based dynamic model (GM) to realize the predictions and analyses for the development trends of GDP, population and primary energy consumption from year 2004 to 2010 based on data from 1995 to 2003. The proposal GM is obtained by the following procedures: First, statistical method of linear regression is integrated into GM to enhance prediction capability. Second, residual error modification with Markov-chain sign estimation further improves the accuracy. Finally, we verified the effectiveness of proposal model through experiment. We also discussed the relationship among the development trends of GDP, population and energy consumption for the future. The results of experiment are simulated with Matlab.