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Selection of Discrete GM Model Initial Value by Designing Calculation Program 设计计算程序选择离散GM模型初值
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2012-09-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201209.0003
Tiejun Dai, Xiaotong Huang
As initial value plays an important role in discrete GM model fitting accuracy, initial value of discrete GM model is selected by designing calculation program to reduce fitting error. Output results can show that the fitting equation of minimum relative error may pass through any point of 1-AGO series, and its fitting accuracy is better than that of traditional grey model and original discrete grey model. The calculating method has an application value.
由于初始值对离散GM模型的拟合精度起着重要作用,因此通过设计计算程序选择离散GM模型的初始值,以减小拟合误差。输出结果表明,最小相对误差拟合方程可以通过1-AGO序列的任意一点,其拟合精度优于传统灰色模型和原始离散灰色模型。该计算方法具有一定的应用价值。
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引用次数: 2
A Study of Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Grey Relational Grade in Wine Evaluation 层次分析法和灰色关联度在葡萄酒评价中的应用研究
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2012-09-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201209.0001
Chih-Jiun Lin, Chien-Yan Hsieh
The purpose of this study was to construct a wine evaluation model by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Samples totaling 30 in number were subjected to find the main components and analyze the volatile elements. The elements studied included five components: dry extract, pH, titratable acidity, alcohol level and residual sugar. The price of the wine will also be included. Analytical Hierarchy Process is built basically on these six elements. This thesis will use interviews and evaluation of experts' questionnaires to sift the evaluation index. Next, the AHP is applied to conduct professional evaluation, and then get the relative weights of indicators under the examination of evaluation index. The result will give the ratings of the wines from poor to excellent. It is hoped that this study may lead to helpful for assist consumer in choosing a wine. The model will be able to commend adaptive the wine to consumer and provide the information of the wine. It will be very useful in hospitality industry.
本研究的目的是运用层次分析法(AHP)建立葡萄酒评价模型。共30份样品进行了主成分分析和挥发性元素分析。所研究的元素包括五种成分:干浸出物、pH值、可滴定酸度、酒精浓度和残糖。酒的价格也包括在内。层次分析法基本上建立在这六个要素之上。本文将采用访谈法和专家问卷法来筛选评价指标。然后运用层次分析法进行专业评价,在评价指标的检验下得到各指标的相对权重。结果将给出葡萄酒从差到优的评级。希望本研究能对消费者选择葡萄酒有所帮助。该模型将能够向消费者推荐自适应的葡萄酒,并提供葡萄酒的信息。这将是非常有用的酒店业。
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引用次数: 1
The Prices Prediction of Taiwan Stock via GM(1,1) Method 基于GM(1,1)方法的台湾股票价格预测
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201206.0005
Yu-Lung Tsai, Huang Li, Kun-Yan Lee
Stock investment has become the tool for the majority of people who want to accumulate wealth through investment banking. However, due to it is difficult to master the ups and downs of the stock prices, investors often end in loss. How to use an effective and reasonable investment approach to protect capital safety and sell or temporarily stop buying when the stock market declines has become more important. Stock investors dream of maintaining or buying the stocks when the stock market goes up, and earn more money than lose money in the stock market. Prof. Deng purposed the grey system theory, which constructs correlation analysis and system modeling to the uncertainty of the system model and information integrity. Also, the methods of forecasting and decision-making are used to explore and understand the system. Originally, it was used in the field of automatic control, but this paper applies the grey system theory, to stock price forecasting. By using the closing prices of the first five weeks, we can forecast six week's closing price. Several stocks in 2011 are used as simulation predictions, and we found that the average errors are between 2% to 7%. Hence, by using the grey system theory, the new stock price prediction model can be established for investors.
股票投资已经成为大多数想通过投资银行积累财富的人的工具。然而,由于很难掌握股票价格的涨跌,投资者往往以亏损告终。如何利用有效合理的投资方式,在股市下跌时保障资金安全,卖出或暂时停买,就显得尤为重要。股票投资者的梦想是在股市上涨时持有或买入股票,在股市上赚的比亏的多。邓教授针对系统模型的不确定性和信息完整性提出了灰色系统理论,构建了关联分析和系统建模。运用预测和决策的方法对系统进行探索和理解。本研究将灰色系统理论应用于股票价格预测领域,主要应用于自动控制领域。通过使用前五周的收盘价,我们可以预测六周的收盘价。2011年的几只股票被用作模拟预测,我们发现平均误差在2%到7%之间。因此,利用灰色系统理论,可以为投资者建立新的股价预测模型。
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引用次数: 1
Clustering the English Reading Performances by Using GSP And GSM 用GSP和GSM对英语阅读成绩进行聚类
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201206.0004
Bor-tyng Wang, T. Sheu, Jung-Chin Liang, J. Tzeng, M. Nagai
The purpose of this paper is to apply an integrated approach to cluster the English reading performances among college students because finding the optimal teaching strategy for an individual student is difficult. The unified English reading exam with forty questions was used to clarify the different performances between day-time and extension classes which have thirty-eight students and thirty-seven students, respectively. The Grey Student-Problem(GSP) chart, which includes the equation of Rasch model, was then generated. Then the method of Grey Structural Modeling (GSM ) was used to cluster the students into appropriate groups. According to the GSP chart and GSM, students' reading performances are clustered into classes based on their levels. Finally, we used Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) to display the concept structure of each group. The results indicate that the teachers could provide adaptive teaching methods and remedial instructions based on the graphic models. Also, parents could understand their children's learning conditions better by reading the clear graphs. We suggested that the GSP chart can not only be applied to the educational field, but also be used in real-life applications, like medical data analysis, engineering, or decision-making fields.
本文的目的是运用一种综合的方法对大学生的英语阅读表现进行聚类,因为很难找到适合单个学生的最佳教学策略。采用40道题的英语阅读统考来明确日间班和扩展班的不同表现,日间班和扩展班分别有38人和37人。然后生成包含Rasch模型方程的灰色学生问题(GSP)图。然后采用灰色结构建模(GSM)方法对学生进行分组。根据GSP图表和GSM,学生的阅读表现根据他们的水平分组。最后,我们使用解释结构模型(ISM)来显示各组的概念结构。此外,通过清晰的图表,家长可以更好地了解孩子的学习情况。我们建议GSP图不仅可以应用于教育领域,还可以应用于现实生活中,如医疗数据分析、工程或决策领域。
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引用次数: 1
Apply Differences Grey Prediction Methods in the Selling of LOHAS 差异灰色预测方法在乐活屋销售中的应用
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201206.0007
Mei-Lien Kan, Kuei-Feng Lee, Yuan-Bing Lee
The paper brings together the average daily sales of a Farmers' Association supermarket from May, 2010 to December, 2010. First, we examine whether the data meet the conditions of modeling, and we determine the average amount of daily sales data are in line with the GM (1,1) modeling of the capacity district. Also, it meets the conditions of the modeling prediction accuracy higher than 90%. Due to the traditional grey prediction GM (1,1) model only needs 4 data, but residual modification grey prediction GM (1,1) mode needs at least five data. Hence, the GM (1,1) model uses the raw data from May, 2010 to November, 2010 to predict values in December, 2010 to do error analysis. Also, we apply the GM (1,1) rolling test, and use the data of 5 groups, 6 groups and 7 groups to calculate six kinds of GM (1,1) prediction model, and we find the raw data with minimum error as the grey prediction GM (1,1) model. After determining the optimal grey prediction period, we apply six grey prediction methods and the optimal grey prediction period to predict the values of December, 2010 to do error analysis. We also use average error value as a criteria to select the best prediction model, and by using the top four of the best prediction model, we are able to predict next three months' growth trend.
本文收集了某农协超市2010年5月至2010年12月的日均销售额。首先检验数据是否满足建模条件,确定日均销量数据是否符合容量区的GM(1,1)模型。同时满足建模预测精度高于90%的条件。由于传统的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型只需要4个数据,而残差修正灰色预测GM(1,1)模式至少需要5个数据。因此,GM(1,1)模型使用2010年5月至11月的原始数据预测2010年12月的值进行误差分析。同时,应用GM(1,1)滚动检验,利用5组、6组和7组的数据计算出6种GM(1,1)预测模型,找到误差最小的原始数据作为灰色预测GM(1,1)模型。在确定最优灰色预测期后,应用6种灰色预测方法和最优灰色预测期对2010年12月的数值进行预测,并进行误差分析。我们还以平均误差值作为标准来选择最佳预测模型,通过使用最佳预测模型的前四名,我们可以预测未来三个月的增长趋势。
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引用次数: 0
The Grey Analysis on Key Product Attributes of Home Video Game Based on Purchase Intention 基于购买意愿的家庭电子游戏关键产品属性灰色分析
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201112.0001
Chih-Sung Lai, Hsing-Hui Chu
This study takes Nintendo Wii as an innovative example to study the key product attributes from the perspective of consumers' purchase intention. By using grey relational analysis and GM(0,N) method, the result showed convenient operation, abundant games and Chinese manipulation interface attract consumers far more than superior appearance, realistic ambience and motion sensing remote. It could be inferred that user friendly interface and entertainment are the top purchase guide for consumers while purchase intention considered. In conclusion, consumers will pay more attention to the function of home video game console, not their fashion design. Therefore, home video game developers should concentrate more on and generate really high performance products.
本研究以任天堂Wii为创新案例,从消费者购买意愿的角度研究关键产品属性。通过灰色关联分析和GM(0,N)方法分析,结果表明,方便的操作、丰富的游戏和中文操作界面远比优异的外观、逼真的氛围和体感遥控器更能吸引消费者。可以推断,在考虑购买意愿的情况下,用户界面友好性和娱乐性是消费者最重要的购买指南。总之,消费者会更加关注家用游戏机的功能,而不是其时尚设计。因此,家庭电子游戏开发者应该更加专注于创造真正高性能的产品。
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引用次数: 2
Applying Grey Model for International Fashion Color Trend Forecasting 灰色模型在国际流行色彩趋势预测中的应用
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201112.0005
Li-Xia Chang, Wei-Dong Gao, Ming-wang Shi, R. Pan
This paper made a study on fashion color forecasting by applying GM (1,1) model. It took successive five years fashion colors' suggestion ratio as the time series. Results shows that the GM(1,1) model would provide promising predicting effect with minimum accuracy ratio of 56.46% and maximum accuracy of 88.68%. Besides the 1AGO data processing, we also apply 2AGO data processing to discuss the forecasting accuracy of this model. Results show that the forecasting with 2AGO data processing can predict the future color trend with maximum accuracy ratio of 92.27% and the minimum ratio 79.62%, P value 1.0000. It can be taken as the promising one prediction model for future color trends forecasting.
本文应用GM(1,1)模型对时尚色彩预测进行了研究。以连续五年的时尚色彩建议率为时间序列。结果表明,GM(1,1)模型具有较好的预测效果,最小准确率为56.46%,最大准确率为88.68%。除了1AGO数据处理外,我们还应用2AGO数据处理来讨论该模型的预测精度。结果表明,采用2AGO数据处理的预测方法可以预测未来颜色趋势,最高准确率为92.27%,最低准确率为79.62%,P值为1.0000。它可以作为未来色彩趋势预测的一种有前景的预测模型。
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引用次数: 1
Apply GM(0,N) in Determinants Research by Supercritical Carbondioxide Fluid Extracts for Antioxidative Composition of "Hibiscus Sabdariffa" Linnaeu GM(0,N)在“芙蓉”抗氧化成分超临界co2流体萃取决定因素研究中的应用
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201112.0006
Erl-Shyh Kao
Low temperature and high diffusion capabilities are characteristics of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Extraction Technology; it is able to extract the thermally unstable substance from natural products while retaining the active components. Therefore, this study uses Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Fluid Extraction Technology to extract Roselle polyphenols Caffeic Acid. Roselle contains polyphenols which has a lot of bioactivity, in which the active ingredient caffeic acid possesses antioxidant, capture of free radicals and inhibition of tyrosinase functions. Different proportions of water and ethanol as a cosolvent added to the carbon dioxide supercritical fluid for modification; changing flow rates of critical pressures, critical temperatures and supercritical fluids to arrive at the related assessment factors and using the grey GM (0,N) model from the grey theory to analyze the importance of each impact factor. The results show that in antioxidant activity, ability to catch free radicals and inhibition of tyrosinase; the extraction temperature is proven to be the most important impact factor. Compared with using traditional statistical analysis, the grey theory analysis method is able to give more magnitude and association relationships from less information.
低温和高扩散能力是超临界二氧化碳萃取技术的特点;它能够从天然产物中提取热不稳定的物质,同时保留有效成分。因此,本研究采用超临界二氧化碳流体萃取技术提取玫瑰多酚类咖啡酸。玫瑰属植物含有多种具有生物活性的多酚类物质,其中有效成分咖啡酸具有抗氧化、捕获自由基和抑制酪氨酸酶的功能。将不同比例的水和乙醇作为助溶剂加入到二氧化碳超临界流体中进行改性;通过临界压力、临界温度和超临界流体的流量变化,得出相关的评价因素,并利用灰色理论中的灰色GM (0,N)模型分析各影响因素的重要性。结果表明,在抗氧化活性、自由基捕获能力和酪氨酸酶抑制能力方面;萃取温度是最重要的影响因素。与传统的统计分析方法相比,灰色理论分析方法能够从较少的信息中得到更多的量级和关联关系。
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引用次数: 0
A Fractional Order Grey Prediction Algorithm 分数阶灰色预测算法
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201112.0002
Yuran Liu, Yunchuan Hu, Mingliang Hou
In order to improve the prediction accuracy to uncertainty signal, the fractional order grey prediction algorithm is proposed in this paper, and the measurement method of the grey information of signals is proposed for the first time. The paper attempts to deduce the fractional order grey prediction algorithm through fractional order Taylor expansion formula and provide the measurement method of the grey information of signals by analyzing the relations between fractional-order differential orders and the prediction accuracy. Fractional order grey prediction algorithm spares the complex operation of whitening grey information and makes full use of the grey information. Experiments have proven that the prediction accuracy of fractional order grey prediction algorithm has been greatly increased as compared with GM (1,1) algorithm.
为了提高对不确定信号的预测精度,本文提出了分数阶灰色预测算法,并首次提出了信号灰色信息的测量方法。本文试图通过分数阶泰勒展开公式推导分数阶灰色预测算法,并通过分析分数阶微分阶数与预测精度之间的关系,提供信号灰色信息的测量方法。分数阶灰色预测算法省去了灰色信息白化的复杂操作,充分利用了灰色信息。实验证明,分数阶灰色预测算法的预测精度比GM(1,1)算法有了很大的提高。
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引用次数: 5
Applying Grey Relational Analysis to Construct the Training Quality System in Enterprise 应用灰色关联分析构建企业培训质量体系
IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2011-09-01 DOI: 10.30016/JGS.201109.0004
Yung-Hui Lee
In the face of the global market competition environment, the business sector is well aware that ”The key to business organizational development lies in the use of human resources”, thus turning effective and systematic ”educational training” into one of the important management policies for organizational change. In addition to training personnel, enterprises also need good assessment tools. Therefore, with the Taiwan Training Quality System (TTQS) researched and developed in Taiwan, and case company A and B as benchmarks of the actual technology industry, the TTQS was employed. The exploration through the gray correlation analysis method shall serve as a reference for enterprises in their future importation of the TTQS, thereby enabling them to engage in self-assessment based on the resources accessible to them and enhance the overall human resources. The first stage of this study is the data collection stage: the critical assessment factors of the TTQS imported by enterprises were explored through literature review and data collection, which were compiled in the questionnaire. The second stage is the empirical analysis stage: targeting the business management levels of case company A and B and the TTQS related personnel, the questionnaire was implemented. Then, the questionnaire results collected were explored through the grey relational analysis method to obtain the weighting values of the assessment indicators. The results show that the crucial success factors of the TTQS importation obtained varied significantly depending on the different industrial features and sizes. Targeting the two case companies, the importation related suggestions were proposed to enable the enterprises to engage in self-assessment before investing in human resources. In addition, the solution strategies provided in this study served as the reference for enhancing the overall human resource were enhanced.
面对全球化的市场竞争环境,企业界深知“企业组织发展的关键在于对人力资源的利用”,从而将有效、系统的“教育培训”转变为组织变革的重要管理政策之一。除了培训人才,企业还需要好的考核工具。因此,以台湾研发的台湾培训质量体系(TTQS)为基础,以案例A公司和案例B公司为实际技术行业的标杆,采用TTQS。通过灰色关联分析法的探索,为企业今后导入TTQS提供参考,使企业能够根据可获得的资源进行自我评估,提升整体人力资源水平。本研究的第一阶段是数据收集阶段:通过文献综述和数据收集,探索企业导入TTQS的关键评估因素,并编制问卷。第二阶段为实证分析阶段:针对案例A、B公司的业务管理水平及TTQS相关人员,实施问卷调查。然后,对收集到的问卷结果进行灰色关联分析,得到评价指标的权重值。结果表明,根据不同的产业特征和规模,获得的TTQS进口关键成功因素存在显著差异。针对这两家案例公司,提出了引进的相关建议,使企业在投入人力资源之前能够进行自我评估。此外,本研究提供的解决策略可为提升整体人力资源提供参考。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Grey System
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