Accurately Forecasting Supply of and Demand for Taiwanese Healthcare Professionals Using the Grey Theory

Abstract

Based on the Statistical Information Service of the Department of Health of the Executive Yuan of Taiwan, this study describes human resource statistical data of healthcare professionals using the GM (1,1) Model of Grey Theory. Analytical results indicated that using this GM (1,1) Model of the Grey Theory for forecasting achieves an accuracy exceeding 92.36%. Furthermore, Taiwanese healthcare professionals find it extremely difficult to constantly estimate the direction of constantly changing domestic health policies. Empirical results indicated that, from 2000 to 2004, the number of licensed medical personnel in Taiwan declined by 2.06%. Given the excessive demands of nurses and physicians, considerable adjustment is necessary in the future with respect to the quality and quantity of these professionals. Results of this study provide a valuable reference for governmental authorities such as the Department of Health in devising and implementing personnel policies.