The role of techno-economic factors for net zero carbon emissions in Pakistan

Abstract

The Government of Pakistan has established clean energy transition goals in the national Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy. The goal of this policy is to increase the 30% capacity of green energy in total energy mix by 2030. In this regard, the aim of this study is to develop a de-carbonization plan for achieving net zero emissions through the deployment of a green energy system for the period 2021 to 2040 by incorporating the ARE policy targets. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software is used for finding the unidirectional causality among gross domestic product, population within the country, energy demand, renewable energy production and CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The results revealed that energy production of 564.16 TWh is enough to meet the energy demand of 480.10 TWh with CO2 emissions of 22.19 million metric tons, having a population of 242.1 million people and GDP growth rate of 5.8%, in the year 2040 in Pakistan. The share of green energy production is 535.07 TWh, which can be utilized fully for meeting energy demand in the country, and almost zero emissions will produce till 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning natural gas were 20.64 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 3.25 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning furnace oil are also reduced from 4.19 million metric tons in 2020 to 2.06 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning coal were 24.85 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 16.88 million metric tons in 2040. Energy demand is directly related to the population and GDP of the country, while renewable utilization is inversely proportional to carbon emissions. The declining trend of carbon emissions in Pakistan would help to achieve net zero emissions targets by mid-century. This technique would bring prosperity in the development of a clean, green and sustainable environment.