Long-Run Economic Losses from COVID-Related Preprimary Program Closures in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

Hundreds of millions of children are losing learning opportunities, resulting in potentially large losses in their lifetime education, health, income, and productivity. Losses in long-term earnings from preprimary program closures due to COVID-19 can be unprecedented. Acute effects are plausible for such disruptions early in life when brains are rapidly developing and are very sensitive to environmental changes. This study briefly reviews existing literature related to the effects of preprimary programs and builds on this literature to present the first simulations of the long-run earnings losses—when current preschool-age children become adults—due to COVID-19 related preprimary-program closures in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The simulations are available for 26 LAC countries, representing varied contexts in terms of pre-pandemic preprimary-participation rates, income levels, and demographic indicators. Our results suggest that the present discounted value of lifetime losses is considerable, up to 4 percent of current annual GDPs. Timely policies, such as the implementation of remedial strategies, are needed to mitigate the effects of preprimary-program closures. JEL Classification Codes: I2; I24; J13; I26; I28