{"title":"Voters Elect Politicians Who Closely Matched Their Preferences","authors":"Marco Portmann, D. Stadelmann, R. Eichenberger","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2115362","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"What determines political candidates' election prospects? We match roll call votes of candidates for the majority elected upper house of parliament who were previously in the lower house with the preferences of their constituency as revealed in referenda. Thereby, we obtain a unique and direct measure of past congruence. Politicians who better represented the preferences of their constituency in the past exhibit a significantly and considerably higher probability of election. This provides first evidence for the direct retrospective voting rule, i.e. that voters elect politicians who represented their preferences well.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2012-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Bulletin","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2115362","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
What determines political candidates' election prospects? We match roll call votes of candidates for the majority elected upper house of parliament who were previously in the lower house with the preferences of their constituency as revealed in referenda. Thereby, we obtain a unique and direct measure of past congruence. Politicians who better represented the preferences of their constituency in the past exhibit a significantly and considerably higher probability of election. This provides first evidence for the direct retrospective voting rule, i.e. that voters elect politicians who represented their preferences well.
期刊介绍：
The Economic Bulletin is an open-access letters journal founded in 2001 with the mission of providing free and extremely rapid scientific communication across the entire community of research economists. EB publishes original notes, comments, and preliminary results. We are especially interested in publishingmanuscripts that keep the profession informed about on-going research programs. Our publication standard is that a manuscript be original, correct and of interest to a specialist. Submissions in these categories are refereed and our objective is to make a decision within two months. Accepted papers are published immediately. It is expected that in many cases, manuscripts published in these categories will form the foundation for more complete works to besubsequently submitted to other journals. In all cases, submissions are restricted to seven printed pages exclusive of references, tables, figures, and appendices, and must be in PDF format. EB also publishes non-refereed letters to the editor, conference announcements and research announcements.
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