Same, but Different? a State-Level Chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian Economic Recession and Comparisons with the GFC and (Early Data On) COVID-19 (preprint)

Abstract

This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16 Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11 8% for the average Brazilian state However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12 7% and 77 1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively Our results have critical implications for policymakers