This brief communication examines the role of socioeconomic factors and use of social media on the risk perception about COVID-19 in Vietnam, which shares a common border with China. Moreover, Vietnam was the first country to succeed in containment of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. From a sample of 391 Vietnamese respondents aged from 15 to 47 years, the present study found that geographical regions and behaviors in using social media have a positive impact on the risk perception of COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam. It also adds to the significance of understanding the risk perception among people to communicate the public health response to COVID-19 to curb the spread of this deadly virus.
{"title":"The COVID-19 risk perception: A survey on socioeconomics and media attention","authors":"T. Huynh","doi":"10.17632/WH9XK5MP9M.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17632/WH9XK5MP9M.3","url":null,"abstract":"This brief communication examines the role of socioeconomic factors and use of social media on the risk perception about COVID-19 in Vietnam, which shares a common border with China. Moreover, Vietnam was the first country to succeed in containment of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. From a sample of 391 Vietnamese respondents aged from 15 to 47 years, the present study found that geographical regions and behaviors in using social media have a positive impact on the risk perception of COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam. It also adds to the significance of understanding the risk perception among people to communicate the public health response to COVID-19 to curb the spread of this deadly virus.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84110230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Given different preference of political parties on macroeconomic issues, elections create a policy uncertainty. We hypothesize that election uncertainty increases cost of equity due to lower investor demand on equity issuances. Using U.S. elections from 1960 to 2010, we show that market leverage and probability to issue leverage are highest in the election year. On the other hand, when the election uncertainty resolves, firms experience a sharp decline in their leverage ratios. This finding suggests that firms rebalance and move their leverage ratios to target leverage. Our results are robust to definition of market and book leverage, S&P credit rating, marginal tax rates, and sub-period analysis
{"title":"Election Uncertainty and Capital Structure","authors":"Bahar Ulupinar, Isa Camyar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2154653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2154653","url":null,"abstract":"Given different preference of political parties on macroeconomic issues, elections create a policy uncertainty. We hypothesize that election uncertainty increases cost of equity due to lower investor demand on equity issuances. Using U.S. elections from 1960 to 2010, we show that market leverage and probability to issue leverage are highest in the election year. On the other hand, when the election uncertainty resolves, firms experience a sharp decline in their leverage ratios. This finding suggests that firms rebalance and move their leverage ratios to target leverage. Our results are robust to definition of market and book leverage, S&P credit rating, marginal tax rates, and sub-period analysis","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75605892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16 Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11 8% for the average Brazilian state However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12 7% and 77 1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively Our results have critical implications for policymakers
{"title":"Same, but Different? a State-Level Chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian Economic Recession and Comparisons with the GFC and (Early Data On) COVID-19 (preprint)","authors":"Jefferson Lazzari Martinho Colombo","doi":"10.17632/M6JX255STV.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17632/M6JX255STV.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16 Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11 8% for the average Brazilian state However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12 7% and 77 1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively Our results have critical implications for policymakers","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79723886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For macro-economists, the importance of holiday gift-giving is the effect of spending on the macro economy. However, for micro-economists, gift-giving has a different important aspect. As purchasing choice is made by someone other than the recipient (i.e. the final consumer), economic theory therefore suggests cash may be superior to gifts in-kind that are welfare reducing (i.e. deadweight loss). That is, the cost of the gift is higher than its value to the recipient. However, there has been no consensus in the empirical literature on whether gift-giving creates or destroys value. In this study, we found that purchasing holiday gifts (for the Jewish Passover in Israel) leads to welfare gains. Although there is no difference in the price of gifts given to women compared to men, the value and welfare gain are lower for women. This result is also reflected in a higher rate of gift return and lower satisfaction among women compared to men. Social distance between the giver and the recipient did not affect the welfare gain.
{"title":"Holiday Gift-Giving – Deadweight Loss or Welfare Gain?","authors":"Ze'ev Shtudiner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3631150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631150","url":null,"abstract":"For macro-economists, the importance of holiday gift-giving is the effect of spending on the macro economy. However, for micro-economists, gift-giving has a different important aspect. As purchasing choice is made by someone other than the recipient (i.e. the final consumer), economic theory therefore suggests cash may be superior to gifts in-kind that are welfare reducing (i.e. deadweight loss). That is, the cost of the gift is higher than its value to the recipient. However, there has been no consensus in the empirical literature on whether gift-giving creates or destroys value. In this study, we found that purchasing holiday gifts (for the Jewish Passover in Israel) leads to welfare gains. Although there is no difference in the price of gifts given to women compared to men, the value and welfare gain are lower for women. This result is also reflected in a higher rate of gift return and lower satisfaction among women compared to men. Social distance between the giver and the recipient did not affect the welfare gain.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76400891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-15DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000396308
Jochen Hartwig, J. Sturm
Research into the effects of fiscal rules has so far focused on their budgetary impact. Possible unwanted side effects of having fiscal rules have gone largely unexplored. This is unfortunate since such side effects are highly probable. For instance, governments attempting to abide by a fiscal rule might curb social expenditure; and this could lead to a higher level of income inequality. We test this hypothesis with data from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) and a new set of fiscal rules dummy variables for EU countries. We find that after 'hard' rules, i.e. rules that are reinforced by sanctions and/or automatic correction mechanisms, have been in place for several years, the amount of redistribution in a country declines, leading to an increase in inequality based on disposable income measures.
{"title":"Do fiscal rules breed inequality? First evidence for the EU","authors":"Jochen Hartwig, J. Sturm","doi":"10.3929/ETHZ-B-000396308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000396308","url":null,"abstract":"Research into the effects of fiscal rules has so far focused on their budgetary impact. Possible unwanted side effects of having fiscal rules have gone largely unexplored. This is unfortunate since such side effects are highly probable. For instance, governments attempting to abide by a fiscal rule might curb social expenditure; and this could lead to a higher level of income inequality. We test this hypothesis with data from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) and a new set of fiscal rules dummy variables for EU countries. We find that after 'hard' rules, i.e. rules that are reinforced by sanctions and/or automatic correction mechanisms, have been in place for several years, the amount of redistribution in a country declines, leading to an increase in inequality based on disposable income measures.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79766404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyse the economic growth performance of Odisha, an Indian state, for the period 1980-2013 and examine the dynamic growth path of the state vis-a-vis the state's own recent history and that of the national economy and other major states. Our structural break analysis reveals that the state has registered an upward shift in its economic growth in the year 2003, after which the state has been doing significantly well; notching up an average annual growth rate of about 8 per cent. When compared to the national economy as well as other major states in a difference-in-differences regression analysis, we find a statistically significant positive differential trend break in Odisha's growth rate since 2003. The Naveen Patnaik government has been in power since 2000 to date, and this period has coincided with impressive economic growth of the state which potentially explains to great extent as to why it has been voted to power for four consecutive terms.
{"title":"Political regime persistence and economic growth in Odisha: An empirical assessment of the Naveen Patnaik rule","authors":"J. P. Sahu, Sitakanta Panda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3047006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3047006","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the economic growth performance of Odisha, an Indian state, for the period 1980-2013 and examine the dynamic growth path of the state vis-a-vis the state's own recent history and that of the national economy and other major states. Our structural break analysis reveals that the state has registered an upward shift in its economic growth in the year 2003, after which the state has been doing significantly well; notching up an average annual growth rate of about 8 per cent. When compared to the national economy as well as other major states in a difference-in-differences regression analysis, we find a statistically significant positive differential trend break in Odisha's growth rate since 2003. The Naveen Patnaik government has been in power since 2000 to date, and this period has coincided with impressive economic growth of the state which potentially explains to great extent as to why it has been voted to power for four consecutive terms.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2018-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84292173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-02-27DOI: 10.4172/2162-6359.1000495
E. M. Ndiaye
This article shows that the social benefits can be annihilated by a bad negotiation or a regulation failure resulting in an over-tariffication. The example of the toll highway Dakar/Diamniadio in Senegal is revealing. This article gives an analysis as well as an economic and financial evaluation showing that the State had additional margins in tariffs negotiation.
{"title":"Public/Private Partnership and tariff regulation failure: the example of Dakar/Diamniadio toll highway in Senegal","authors":"E. M. Ndiaye","doi":"10.4172/2162-6359.1000495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2162-6359.1000495","url":null,"abstract":"This article shows that the social benefits can be annihilated by a bad negotiation or a regulation failure resulting in an over-tariffication. The example of the toll highway Dakar/Diamniadio in Senegal is revealing. This article gives an analysis as well as an economic and financial evaluation showing that the State had additional margins in tariffs negotiation.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2018-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91214896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the progress of financial integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Using a stock market liquidity measure and cointegration technique, we show that Asia-Pacific stock markets are not fully segmented in terms of liquidity risk and hence, stock market integration is feasible. Moreover, we find that the number of cointegrating vectors for different types of samples declines during the global financial crisis. This may indicate that the global financial crisis tempers the extent to which Asia-Pacific stock markets are integrated. Hence, the influence of financial crises should be considered by policy makers in designing stock market integration, while global investors can still benefit from diversifying portfolio investments in the Asia-Pacific region.
{"title":"Stock market integration in the Asia-Pacific region: Evidence from cointegration of liquidity risk","authors":"Wahyoe Soedarmono","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3096393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3096393","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the progress of financial integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Using a stock market liquidity measure and cointegration technique, we show that Asia-Pacific stock markets are not fully segmented in terms of liquidity risk and hence, stock market integration is feasible. Moreover, we find that the number of cointegrating vectors for different types of samples declines during the global financial crisis. This may indicate that the global financial crisis tempers the extent to which Asia-Pacific stock markets are integrated. Hence, the influence of financial crises should be considered by policy makers in designing stock market integration, while global investors can still benefit from diversifying portfolio investments in the Asia-Pacific region.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90915717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The initiation of IMF agreements in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) follows an inherently different process than in other regions. While economic conditions explain part of the difference in lending decisions, some economic but also political factors have systematically different effects on IMF lending in SSA. Studies that account for selection into IMF programs should take this into account in order to increase the reliability of their findings.
{"title":"Determinants of IMF lending: How different is Sub-Saharan Africa?","authors":"Doris A. Oberdabernig","doi":"10.7892/BORIS.107214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7892/BORIS.107214","url":null,"abstract":"The initiation of IMF agreements in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) follows an inherently different process than in other regions. While economic conditions explain part of the difference in lending decisions, some economic but also political factors have systematically different effects on IMF lending in SSA. Studies that account for selection into IMF programs should take this into account in order to increase the reliability of their findings.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2017-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76447446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Our main research question is whether, using more robust statistical methods, the effect of the percentage of female borrowers of a Microfinance Institution (MFI) on the delinquency of the portfolio still holds. By using two samples of Latin American MFIs, we show that there is no relation between the percentage of female borrowers in an MFI portfolio and MFI economic outcomes. The relation between portfolio-at-risk and gender is not found when using a dynamic panel to account for serial autocorrelation, thus not accepting the hypothesis that women repay better than men. Hence, this paper suggests that MFIs lend more to women for reasons beyond just "economic" ones, such as empowering women and helping poor people, otherwise unable to access credit lines, get loans in Latin America.
{"title":"Microfinance for Women: Are There Economical Reasons? Evidence from Latin America","authors":"Jamil Civitarese, R. Leite","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3042338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3042338","url":null,"abstract":"Our main research question is whether, using more robust statistical methods, the effect of the percentage of female borrowers of a Microfinance Institution (MFI) on the delinquency of the portfolio still holds. By using two samples of Latin American MFIs, we show that there is no relation between the percentage of female borrowers in an MFI portfolio and MFI economic outcomes. The relation between portfolio-at-risk and gender is not found when using a dynamic panel to account for serial autocorrelation, thus not accepting the hypothesis that women repay better than men. Hence, this paper suggests that MFIs lend more to women for reasons beyond just \"economic\" ones, such as empowering women and helping poor people, otherwise unable to access credit lines, get loans in Latin America.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2017-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88501512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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