Forecasting the Diffusion of Smart Speakers in the Indian Market Using Bass, Gompertz, and Logistic Models

Abstract

Forecasting the diffusion of new products in an emerging market is important yet challenging due to a lack of historical data. Managers often resort to inefficient forecasting practices to understand diffusion and to stay ahead of the competition. Our study aims to forecast sales for smart speakers in India, that have been introduced recently. Due to the lack of adequate sales data, our research has used data of analogous products using look-alike analysis to estimate the parameters of diffusion models. We forecasted future sales using three relevant diffusion models – the Bass, the Gompertz, and the Logistic to determine the model to forecast sales for smart speakers. The analysis revealed that the Bass model gave better predictions as compared to the other two models. The results were validated using parameter estimates from secondary literature. Our study predicts that the aggregate sales of smart speakers in India will peak around 2023-27.