Analysis of Volatility Spillover in African Stock Markets: Evidence from Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to analyze stock market return volatility spillover between in Sub-Sahara markets using Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa monthly data from January 2000 to December 2017. Preliminary analyses from descriptive statistics show that show mean monthly returns are positive for all the stock markets. Skewness coefficients show that the stock returns and interest rates distribution of all Sub-Sahara Africa stock markets are negatively skewed but inflation rate is positively skewed for Nigeria and South Africa, and flat for Ghana. Excess kurtoses are positive for all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators, and Jarque-Bera statistics indicate the stock markets’ series and macroeconomic indicators are not normally distributed. The Unit roots tests results indicate that all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators are first difference stationary. The results of multivariate BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model show evidence of volatility spillover in Sub-Sahara Africa stock markets. We therefore recommend amongst others that stock market authorities should formulate and implement policies that would mitigate any negative effect of stock return volatility on the wealth of retail investors so as to sustain investors’ confidence in the African stock markets. This will eliminate the destabilising impact on the investors’ confidence on the markets.