Life Prediction of Electromagnetic Relay Based on Bayesian Method

Abstract

so far, there is a question about the existing study of electromagnetic relay’s life prediction: they mainly focused on the research of batch products as a whole, which cannot reflect individual differences. This paper proposes one kind of way about the life prediction of electromagnetic relay based on Bayesian method. Firstly, a prior distribution of the model parameters is determined on the basis of the determined degradation model. Then, the degradation data (contact resistance) based on the prior distribution is fused, and the parameters of the degenerate trajectory model are updated to obtain the reliability function. Finally, we can predict the lifetime of a single electromagnetic relay. The results show that the lifetime prediction of a single electromagnetic relay is realized by the Bayesian method, in which the No.10 electromagnetic relay predicts the life of the electromagnetic relay to be $1.28 \times 10^{5}$ times and the relative error is 0.06 for the test lifetime value is $1.21 \times 10^{5}$ times under the condition of a reliability of 90%. The feasibility of predicting the lifetime of a single electromagnetic relay using fusion degradation data is verified