An Analysis of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF): Essence, Impacts and Prospects

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) proposed by the Biden administration has gone through three major stages — conception, preparation and engagement, and initial negotiation — and focuses on four key pillars: Connected Economy, Resilient Economy, Clean Economy, and Fair Economy. In fact, this initiative supplements and reinforces the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, while carrying forward and advancing the “America First” policy. It is a new attempt of the US to build an economic club exclusive of China in the Indo-Pacific and to lead in building a new structure for regional cooperation, as well as a diplomatic signal deliberately released by the Biden administration to its Eurasian allies during the Russia–Ukarine conflict. As the prospects of the IPEF are still of much uncertainty, it might exert few substantial impacts on China in the short term. However, we should still be alert to its long-term adverse influence on China–US relations, China’s surrounding international environment and foreign relations, the development of regional economic cooperation and world economy, as well as the stability of international order. Given the domestic situation in the US and the attitude of the other members, the progress of IPEF negotiations in the four pillars may vary significantly in the coming period.