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The Logical Contradictions of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and China’s Response 美国印太战略的逻辑矛盾与中国的应对
Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500127
Ye Hailin
Since the Biden administration took office, China–US relations have been undergoing major adjustments. The US has strategically accelerated the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and related containment mechanisms against China, building multilateral networks led by the US to contain China on multiple fronts. As China–US strategic rivalry keeps intensifying, China faces increasingly complex peripheral strategic environment, regional economic cooperation and security situation. Through the analysis of the intentions and plans of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, it is found that there is a huge mismatch between the cost that the US can afford to adopt the strategy and its expected benefits, and a significant gap also exists between its current comprehensive national power and its ability to afford the cost of the strategy, which will severely limit the implementation effects of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. These factors therefore create conditions for China, as the weaker party, to effectively cope with and successfully hedge against various challenges posed by the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.
拜登政府执政以来,中美关系经历了重大调整。美国战略上加快实施“印太战略”及相关对华遏制机制,构建以美国为首的多方位遏制中国的多边网络。随着中美战略对抗不断加剧,中国面临的周边战略环境、区域经济合作和安全形势日益复杂。通过分析印太战略的意图和计划,可以发现美国实施该战略的成本与预期收益之间存在着巨大的不匹配,美国目前的综合国力与承担该战略成本的能力之间也存在着巨大的差距,这将严重限制美国印太战略的实施效果。这些因素为中国作为弱势一方有效应对和成功规避美国印太战略带来的各种挑战创造了条件。
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引用次数: 0
China–US Strategic Competition and Indonesia’s Status Anxiety 中美战略竞争与印尼的地位焦虑
Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500115
Guangjiang Bao
Indonesia has been actively seeking to improve its status and has gradually developed a trinity of national–regional–world status, consisting of independent status, regional leadership status and middle power status. In the context of China–US strategic competition, Indonesia is more sensitive to the consolidation and pursuit of its status. In response, Indonesia not only inherits the traditional diplomatic policy of “rowing between two rocks” and refuses to take sides between China and the US, but also tries to lead the ASEAN countries to develop a “third way” in the Indo-Pacific region. This paper analyzes Indonesia’s perception of and response to China–US strategic competition from the perspective of status politics, arguing that status politics plays a key role as the underlying logic of Indonesia’s “free and active” diplomacy — maintaining close relations with both China and the United States at the material level can enhance Indonesia’s economic and military status, and maintaining autonomy at the social level can gain international recognition of its status.
印尼一直积极寻求提升自己的地位,逐渐形成了国家-地区-世界三位一体的地位,即独立地位、地区领导地位和中等大国地位。在中美战略竞争的大背景下,印尼对巩固和追求自身地位更为敏感。对此,印尼不仅继承传统的“两边倒”外交政策,拒绝在中美之间选边站队,还试图引领东盟国家在印太地区走“第三条道路”。本文从地位政治的角度分析了印尼对中美战略竞争的认知和应对,认为地位政治是印尼“自由主动”外交的内在逻辑——在物质层面与中美保持密切关系可以提升印尼的经济和军事地位,在社会层面保持自治可以获得国际社会对其地位的认可。
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引用次数: 2
China’s COVID-19 Vaccine Cooperation with Southeast Asia: A Boost for the Health Silk Road Initiative 中国与东南亚开展新冠肺炎疫苗合作:助力健康丝绸之路建设
Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500097
Zhao Wanyi, Li Mingjiang
The severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of public health management for the economy and society in every country. It also proved the necessity of international cooperation in the health sector to deal with global health challenges and realize sustainable development. As one of the major players in global health governance, China has made significant contributions to anti-COVID cooperation through the Health Silk Road, a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing’s vaccine cooperation was particularly noteworthy in Southeast Asia, a very important region in China’s BRI design. The bilateral vaccine collaboration between China and regional states has provided good experiences for regional health cooperation and paved the way for the further promotion of the Health Silk Road in the post-pandemic era.
COVID-19大流行的严重影响凸显了公共卫生管理对每个国家经济和社会的重要性。这也证明了在卫生部门开展国际合作以应对全球卫生挑战和实现可持续发展的必要性。作为全球卫生治理的重要参与者之一,中国通过“一带一路”倡议的重要组成部分——“卫生丝绸之路”,为抗疫合作作出了重要贡献。中国在东南亚的疫苗合作尤其值得关注,东南亚是中国“一带一路”倡议中非常重要的地区。中国与地区国家开展双边疫苗合作,为地区卫生合作提供了良好经验,为后大流行时代卫生丝绸之路的进一步推进铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF): Essence, Impacts and Prospects 印度-太平洋经济框架分析:本质、影响与展望
Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500103
Fangfei Jiang
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) proposed by the Biden administration has gone through three major stages — conception, preparation and engagement, and initial negotiation — and focuses on four key pillars: Connected Economy, Resilient Economy, Clean Economy, and Fair Economy. In fact, this initiative supplements and reinforces the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, while carrying forward and advancing the “America First” policy. It is a new attempt of the US to build an economic club exclusive of China in the Indo-Pacific and to lead in building a new structure for regional cooperation, as well as a diplomatic signal deliberately released by the Biden administration to its Eurasian allies during the Russia–Ukarine conflict. As the prospects of the IPEF are still of much uncertainty, it might exert few substantial impacts on China in the short term. However, we should still be alert to its long-term adverse influence on China–US relations, China’s surrounding international environment and foreign relations, the development of regional economic cooperation and world economy, as well as the stability of international order. Given the domestic situation in the US and the attitude of the other members, the progress of IPEF negotiations in the four pillars may vary significantly in the coming period.
拜登政府提出的“印度-太平洋经济框架”(IPEF)经历了构想、准备和接触、初步谈判三个主要阶段,并以“互联经济”、“弹性经济”、“清洁经济”、“公平经济”四大支柱为核心。事实上,“一带一路”是对特朗普政府“印太战略”的补充和强化,是对“美国优先”政策的继承和推进。这是美国在印太地区打造“中国之外的经济俱乐部”、主导构建区域合作新格局的新尝试,也是拜登政府在俄乌冲突中刻意向欧亚盟友释放的外交信号。由于IPEF的前景仍然存在很大的不确定性,短期内它对中国的影响可能不大。但对中美关系、对中国周边国际环境和对外关系、对区域经济合作和世界经济发展、对国际秩序稳定的长期不利影响,我们仍应保持警惕。考虑到美国国内形势和其他成员的态度,未来一段时间内,四大支柱的IPEF谈判进展可能会有很大差异。
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引用次数: 1
The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and its Impacts on Asia-Pacific Order 拜登政府的印太战略及其对亚太秩序的影响
Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500085
Zong Wei
The Biden administration regards the Indo-Pacific region as the pivot of U.S. global strategy, and China as the primary strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and even the globe. It has implemented forward diplomacy and forward military deployment and promoted Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, attempting to involve allies inside and outside the region in an all-round competition against China and maintain U.S. regional hegemony. Despite the challenges in implementing the Indo-Pacific Strategy, such as U.S. global strategic balance, funding shortage, difficulty in coordinating the allies, and inconsistency of domestic and foreign policy, the Biden administration will continue to promote related policy initiatives, which have and will continue to affect the political, economic, and security order in the Asia-Pacific region and impede the healthy and stable development of U.S.–China relations.
拜登政府将印太地区视为美国全球战略的支点,将中国视为美国在印太地区乃至全球的首要战略挑战。实施前沿外交和前沿军事部署,推进“印太经济框架”,试图拉拢地区内外盟友与中国展开全方位竞争,维护美国的地区霸权。尽管“印太战略”在实施过程中面临诸多挑战,如美国全球战略平衡、资金短缺、盟国协调困难、内外政策不一致等,但拜登政府仍将继续推进相关政策倡议,这些政策倡议已经并将继续影响亚太地区的政治、经济和安全秩序,阻碍中美关系健康稳定发展。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Avoidance and Deterrence: Duality of the US Policy toward China 风险规避与威慑:美国对华政策的双重性
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500073
He Xiao
The Biden administration has demonstrated high emphasis on economic competition among major powers. Although it has stated multiple times that the US does not seek confrontation with China, the Biden administration’s security policy toward China, compared with that of the Trump administration, is more confrontational, which is underscored by its constant pushing of China’s red line in the Taiwan issue. Strategic competition against China is clearly regarded as the pivot of the foreign policy by the Biden administration, which has lowered expectation of China and has changed the mentality of striving for “big deals” to “no deal” in its China policy. The Biden administration believes that the US has a long-term advantage, and has developed a composite strategy comprised of two tactics based on its perception of the strategic positioning and the competitive status of China and the US. The first is a dominant strategy of (to gain advantages by risk avoiding), namely to cut off China’s access to external technological innovation resources and maintain the long-term advantage of the US while avoiding bilateral interactions of high costs, risks, and uncertainties, in order to ensure a lasting and secure victory as much as possible. The second is a supporting strategy of (to prevent wars by enhancing commitment), which aims to prevent China from taking high-risk actions or launching military challenges against the US on key issues when perceiving disadvantage. and focus, respectively, on economic and security policies, which together constitute the logic for the US strategic competition against China. To this end, the US has strengthened its strategic deterrence against China by reinforcing its key foreign commitments and mobilizing its allies.
拜登政府高度重视大国间的经济竞争。尽管美国多次表示不寻求与中国对抗,但与特朗普政府相比,拜登政府的对华安全政策更具对抗性,这一点从其在台湾问题上不断推高中国的红线就可以看出。与中国的战略竞争显然是拜登政府对外政策的支点,降低了对中国的期望,把对华政策从“大交易”的心态转变为“不交易”的心态。拜登政府认为美国具有长期优势,根据对中美战略定位和竞争地位的认识,制定了由两种战术组成的复合战略。第一种是“以规避风险为优势”的优势战略,即切断中国获得外部技术创新资源的渠道,保持美国的长期优势,同时避免高成本、高风险和高不确定性的双边互动,以尽可能确保持久和安全的胜利。二是支持战略(通过加强承诺来防止战争),其目的是防止中国在意识到劣势时采取高风险行动或在关键问题上对美国发起军事挑战。并分别关注经济和安全政策,这两者共同构成了美国对华战略竞争的逻辑。为此,美国加强了对中国的战略威慑,加强了重要的对外承诺,动员了盟友。
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引用次数: 0
Geostrategy and Great Power Relations: A Reanalysis of the Basic Trends of Sino-Japanese Relations 地缘战略与大国关系:中日关系基本趋势再分析
Pub Date : 2022-07-18 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500061
Zhu Feng
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, China and Japan have fought against the epidemic through high-level contacts, donation and so on. The Chinese proverb “mountains and rivers on foreign land, wind and moon under the same sky” gave warmth of friendship to the bilateral relations. However, since Yoshihide Suga won the election, the Sino-Japanese relations have taken a worsening turn. The current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida further takes counterbalancing China as top priority. The “anti-COVID-19 diplomacy” in 2020 had very limited improvement on Sino-Japanese relations. It is clear that since the implementation of the U.S. strategic competition policy against China, Japan, without hesitation, turns to the “national interest theory” and “international contribution theory” by positioning to counterbalance China. Japan has become one of the few Asian countries that have completely sided with US in the China–US strategic competition. Since the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations, the principle of “good-neighborhood” has been totally replaced by the seemingly determined approach of “counterbalance” proposed by Japanese politicians. Japan has gone beyond the issue of its neighboring areas, trying to assist the United States’ strategic containment of China, which has added a new variable to China’s neighboring diplomacy.
新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,中日两国通过高层接触、捐赠等方式抗击疫情。“异乡山河,同天风月”这句中国谚语,给两国关系注入了友谊的暖意。然而,自菅义伟赢得大选以来,中日关系出现了恶化。现任首相岸田文雄进一步将制衡中国作为首要任务。2020年的“抗疫外交”对中日关系的改善非常有限。显然,自美国对华战略竞争政策实施以来,日本毫不犹豫地通过定位转向“国家利益论”和“国际贡献论”来制衡中国。日本已成为亚洲少数几个在中美战略竞争中完全站在美国一边的国家之一。自中日关系正常化以来,“睦邻友好”原则完全被日本政客提出的看似坚决的“制衡”方针所取代。日本已经超越周边问题,试图协助美国对中国的战略遏制,这给中国的周边外交增添了新的变数。
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引用次数: 0
Fundamental Collateral: A Concept to Understand Global Macroeconomics and Financial Market 基本抵押品:一个理解全球宏观经济和金融市场的概念
Pub Date : 2022-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500024
Zhang Yuyan, Xia Guangtao
The systematic importance of US Treasuries for the global financial market stems from their attribute of fundamental collateral. This paper attempts to use the concept of fundamental collateral, as well as its basic features and functions, to explain how US Treasuries have strengthened the international status of the US dollar, and examines the prospects of a diversifying global fundamental collateral market.
美国国债对全球金融市场的系统性重要性,源于其基本抵押品的属性。本文试图利用基本抵押品的概念及其基本特征和功能来解释美国国债如何加强美元的国际地位,并探讨多元化的全球基本抵押品市场的前景。
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引用次数: 0
China–US Economic and Trade Relations: Trump and Beyond 《中美经贸关系:特朗普与未来
Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500012
Song Guoyou
In the final year of Trump’s tenure, China and the US put the trade war on hold by signing their phase-one economic and trade agreement, but the COVID-19 pandemic has brought new challenges to the China–US economic and trade relations. The US trade and economic policies toward China advocated by Trump had to be suspended due to his failure to win the re-election, demonstrating that his economic and trade strategy for China has ended in failure. However, the succeeding Biden administration has not totally abandoned the overall design of Trump’s economic and trade policies toward China, and has continued the core policies of imposing additional tariffs on China and maintaining the US economic competitive advantage. After the collision during the Trump administration, the China–US economic and trade relations still show the fundamental characteristics of complementarity and mutual benefit. Under the Biden administration, the renewal of the phase-one economic and trade agreement, the transformation of the economic alliance, the security of the supply chain, the coordination of global economic issues in the post-pandemic era, etc. will become the new focuses of China–US economic and trade relations.
在特朗普任期的最后一年,中美双方签署了第一阶段经贸协定,暂时搁置了贸易战,但新冠肺炎疫情给中美经贸关系带来了新的挑战。特朗普主张的美国对华经贸政策因未能赢得连任而不得不暂停,这表明他的对华经贸战略以失败告终。但继任的拜登政府并没有完全放弃特朗普对华经贸政策的总体设计,延续了对中国加征关税、维护美国经济竞争优势的核心政策。在经历了特朗普执政期间的碰撞之后,中美经贸关系仍然呈现出优势互补、互利共赢的根本特征。在拜登政府下,第一阶段经贸协议的续期、经济联盟的转型、供应链的安全、后疫情时代全球经济问题的协调等将成为中美经贸关系的新焦点。
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引用次数: 0
The Quad: From Loose Coordination Toward an Alliance 四方:从松散的协调走向联盟
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2737557922500048
Siling Yang, Jilei Ren
2021 was a watershed year for the US, Japan, India, and Australia vis-à-vis their Quadrilateral Cooperation mechanism, which successfully transitioned from a loose coordinating body to a grouping of allied actors. Reviewing the historical development of the Quad, three distinct phases can be identified: the conceptual stage, the strategy development stage, and the third phase of evolution toward an alliance. During the first two phases, the Quad was not more than a loose coordinating structure, but in the last phase, it started to take on the characteristics of an alliance-like body. The primary reason we can conclude that it has evolved into an alliance body is that the organization has started to mold behavioral norms, and it further aims to establish a monopoly over the provision of norms in the Indo-Pacific region. Three factors have played a role in driving the US, Japan, India, and Australia to build the Quad into an alliance body: first is the pursuit of general interests; second is the global situation brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on their relations; third is the formation of a shared objective. These three factors combined worked to shape the Quad into an alliance. As the Quad primarily targets China, its emergence as an alliance will have impacts on China’s security environment that cannot be ignored. In response, China should implement its “neighborhood first” strategy, promote the [Formula: see text] Leader’s Summit on Mutual Respect with its neighboring countries, and advance the comprehensive deepening of economic cooperation between China and ASEAN. These steps can help China respond to the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geo-political situation.
2021年是美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚对-à-vis四方合作机制的分水岭之年,该机制成功地从一个松散的协调机构转变为一组盟友。回顾四方联盟的历史发展,可以确定三个不同的阶段:概念阶段、战略发展阶段和向联盟演变的第三阶段。在前两个阶段,四方只是一个松散的协调结构,但在最后一个阶段,它开始呈现出一个类似联盟的机构的特征。我们可以得出结论,它已经演变成一个联盟机构的主要原因是该组织开始塑造行为规范,并进一步旨在垄断印度太平洋地区的规范提供。推动美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚将“四方对话机制”打造为一个联盟机构的因素有三个:首先是对共同利益的追求;二是新冠肺炎疫情带来的全球形势及其对中美关系的影响;三是形成共同目标。这三个因素结合在一起形成了四方联盟。由于“四方对话”的主要目标是中国,它作为一个联盟的出现将对中国的安全环境产生不可忽视的影响。为此,中国应实施“周边优先”战略,推动与周边国家举行相互尊重领导人峰会,推动中国与东盟经济合作全面深化。这些举措有助于中国应对快速变化的印太地缘政治形势。
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引用次数: 0
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The Journal of East Asian affairs
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