The Future Is Now: Security Guarantees for Ukraine

IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Survival Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI:10.1080/00396338.2023.2218697
L. Fix
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Abstract

Abstract Without security guarantees, Ukraine will not have a free and secure future. Despite the urgency of the issue, however, no clarity has so far arisen on the nature of security guarantees that might apply, their institutional context or their timeline. Giving Ukraine such guarantees sooner rather than later would send a message to Moscow that the West was in the war for the long haul, and that continuing a losing war was futile. Accordingly, guarantees should be shaped in parallel with Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The best option appears to be a security pact for Ukraine outside the NATO institutional context. While such a pact would not necessarily contemplate NATO membership, it would extend practically comparable assurances to Kyiv through a formalised support structure without leaving it vulnerable in the short term.
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未来就是现在:为乌克兰提供安全保障
没有安全保障,乌克兰就不会有一个自由和安全的未来。然而,尽管这一问题十分紧迫,但迄今尚未明确可能适用的安全保障的性质、其体制背景或时间表。尽早向乌克兰提供这样的保证,会向莫斯科发出这样的信息:西方将长期参与这场战争,继续一场失败的战争是徒劳的。因此,保证应与乌克兰的反攻并行。最好的选择似乎是在北约体制框架之外为乌克兰签订一项安全协议。尽管这样的协议不一定会考虑加入北约,但它将通过一个正式的支持结构,向基辅提供几乎类似的保证,而不会让它在短期内变得脆弱。
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来源期刊
Survival
Survival Multiple-
CiteScore
2.10
自引率
16.70%
发文量
88
期刊介绍: Survival, the Institute"s bi-monthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. With a diverse range of authors, thoughtful reviews and review essays, Survival is scholarly in depth while vivid, well-written and policy-relevant in approach. Shaped by its editors to be both timely and forward-thinking, the journal encourages writers to challenge conventional wisdom and bring fresh, often controversial, perspectives to bear on the strategic issues of the moment. Survival is essential reading for practitioners, analysts, teachers and followers of international affairs. Each issue also contains Book Reviews of the most important recent publications on international politics and security.
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