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The Gaza War and the Region 加沙战争与该地区
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285603
Emile Hokayem
Abstract Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack and the subsequent war in Gaza has forced the Palestinian question back to the top of the Middle Eastern agenda after years of neglect. The crisis has also confirmed Hamas’s identity as an agent of resistance rather than governance and shattered Israel’s perceptions of its own power, the competence of its security services and political leadership, and the manageability of its immediate neighbourhood. Israeli forces may well destroy Hamas’s advanced military capabilities and decapitate its Gaza-based command, but they are unlikely to obliterate Hamas as a social, political and ideological actor, and a determined insurgency. In Arab forums, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict will probably inhibit normalisation with Israel and overshadow other conflicts. Iran does not have an immediate interest in expanding the war and has other options through partners for signalling support for Hamas. The war broadly benefits Tehran by affirming its forward-defence strategy, re-energising its axis of resistance and shaking its regional rivals.
摘要 哈马斯 2023 年 10 月 7 日的袭击和随后的加沙战争迫使巴勒斯坦问题在被忽视多年后重新回到中东议程的首位。这场危机也证实了哈马斯的身份--抵抗者而非治理者,并打破了以色列对其自身力量、安全部门和政治领导层的能力以及近邻可控性的看法。以色列军队很可能摧毁哈马斯先进的军事能力,斩首其驻扎在加沙的指挥部,但不可能消灭作为社会、政治和意识形态行为体的哈马斯以及坚定的叛乱分子。在阿拉伯论坛上,巴以冲突可能会阻碍与以色列关系的正常化,并使其他冲突黯然失色。伊朗对扩大战争并无直接兴趣,它还可以通过其他合作伙伴向哈马斯发出支持信号。这场战争对德黑兰大有裨益,因为它肯定了德黑兰的前沿防御战略,为其抵抗轴心重新注入了活力,并动摇了其地区对手。
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引用次数: 0
Time Is Short: Ukraine, Taiwan and the Echoes of 1941 时不我待:乌克兰、台湾和 1941 年的回声
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285605
Charlie Laderman
Abstract There are parallels between the run-up to the United States’ entry into the Second World War in 1941 and the contemporary geopolitical environment. Authoritarian aggression has again produced war in Europe and threatens conflict in Asia. While new research on the path to war in December 1941 offers no neatly packaged lessons, it does present five enduring dilemmas. Firstly, it only takes one side to believe war is inevitable for it to materialise. Secondly, a combatant might regard a state’s characterisation of economic-defence aid to an adversary combatant as a measure short of war as a distinction without a difference. Thirdly, underlying but unrealised military primacy might encourage rather than deter war by making time a critical factor. Fourthly, domestic constraints can make it difficult for a government to make deterrence credible. Fifthly, and relatedly, a democratic leader cannot make durable policies that get too far ahead of public opinion.
摘要 1941 年美国加入第二次世界大战之前的情况与当代地缘政治环境有相似之处。专制侵略再次在欧洲引发战争,并威胁到亚洲的冲突。尽管对 1941 年 12 月通往战争之路的新研究并没有提供整齐划一的经验教训,但它确实提出了五个持久的难题。首先,只要有一方认为战争不可避免,战争就会发生。其次,如果一个国家把向敌方作战人员提供经济-国防援助说成是战争前的措施,作战人员可能会认为这是没有区别的区别。第三,潜在但未实现的军事优势可能会使时间成为关键因素,从而鼓励而非阻止战争。第四,国内制约因素可能使政府难以使威慑具有可信度。第五,与此相关的是,民主领导者不可能制定过于超越民意的持久政策。
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引用次数: 0
The Ambivalence of Soft Power 软实力的矛盾性
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285611
David W. Ellwood
Abstract In Soft Power and the Future of US Foreign Policy, Hendrik W. Ohnesorge has collected interesting and worthwhile essays demonstrating that values, policies and personalities – as well as artists and performers, philanthropic foundations, universities, corporations and churches – are elements of American soft power. These cultural resources add to a nation’s global reputation and influence. Factors afflicting America’s reputation today include the declining quality of life for many sectors of American society, the country’s inept response to the COVID-19 pandemic, recent foreign-policy disasters, and the coercive use of soft power itself. None of the contributors scrutinise the gap between promise and performance in US public diplomacy, but it seems clear that hard power undergirds soft power, and that the ability to call upon a uniquely abundant variety of means to project power is still what distinguishes the United States from all its competitors.
摘要 在《软实力与美国外交政策的未来》一书中,亨德里克-W.-奥内索格(Hendrik W. Ohnesorge)收集了一些有趣而有价值的文章,证明价值观、政策和人物--以及艺术家和表演者、慈善基金会、大学、公司和教会--都是美国软实力的要素。这些文化资源提升了一个国家的全球声誉和影响力。当今影响美国声誉的因素包括美国社会许多阶层生活质量的下降、美国对COVID-19大流行病的应对不力、最近的外交政策灾难以及软实力本身的强制性使用。没有一位撰稿人仔细研究了美国公共外交中承诺与表现之间的差距,但似乎很明显,硬实力是软实力的基础,而利用独特的丰富手段来投射力量的能力仍然是美国区别于所有竞争对手的关键所在。
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引用次数: 0
China’s Legal Diplomacy 中国的法律外交
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285610
Lynn Kuok
Abstract China is engaging in a broad and systematic effort to align its legal capabilities with its strategic goals in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and could do so outside of Asia, in places as far afield as the Arctic and Antarctic, in order to reshape and, in some cases, fill gaps in international law. Yet, while China’s assertive ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ has received considerable attention, its legal diplomacy has largely gone under the radar. Despite their insistence on the importance of the rules-based international order, the United States and other Western powers have been less proactive and methodical in their use of international law as compared to China. In an age of great-power competition, countries are drawing on a diverse range of tools – military, diplomatic, economic, developmental and intelligence – to gain strategic advantage. Countries that fail to bolster their own legal capabilities and to integrate legal diplomacy into their national-security strategies may surrender the power of legitimacy to China, even if, particularly in the South China Sea, Chinese actions have indubitably contravened international law.
摘要 中国正在进行广泛而系统的努力,使其法律能力与其在南海和台湾海峡的战略目标保持一致,并可能在亚洲以外的北极和南极等遥远地区这样做,以重塑国际法,并在某些情况下填补国际法的空白。然而,尽管中国自信的 "狼性外交 "受到了广泛关注,但其法律外交在很大程度上却鲜为人知。尽管美国和其他西方大国坚持以规则为基础的国际秩序的重要性,但与中国相比,它们在运用国际法方面却不那么积极主动,也不那么有条不紊。在大国竞争的时代,各国都在利用军事、外交、经济、发展和情报等多种手段来获取战略优势。那些未能加强自身法律能力并将法律外交纳入其国家安全战略的国家可能会将合法性的力量拱手让给中国,即使中国的行动(尤其是在南海)无可争议地违反了国际法。
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引用次数: 0
The Primitivisation of Major Warfare 主要战争的原始化
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285607
Lukas Milevski
Abstract Despite optimistic technological visions, future warfare is likely to consume and destroy military equipment and personnel at rates for which the West is ill prepared. Medium and larger militaries in particular may be primitivised during and by future warfare: they may become more socially, organisationally and technologically primitive versions of themselves. This is a process with historical and contemporary precedents, as experienced by Germany’s Wehrmacht during the Second World War and the Russian army in Ukraine today. The tactical and operational realities of sustained military campaigning against a major adversary may well primitivise Western militaries too, a challenge for which better technology is at once a partial answer and a vulnerability. Primitivisation has implications not only for defence-industrial and personnel policies, but also force design and ultimately employment.
摘要 尽管技术前景乐观,但未来战争对军事装备和人员的消耗和破坏速度可能会让西方国家措手不及。中型和大型军队尤其可能在未来战争中被原始化:它们可能在社会、组织和技术上成为更原始的自己。这一过程在历史上和当代都有先例,第二次世界大战期间的德国国防军和今天乌克兰的俄罗斯军队都经历过这一过程。与主要对手进行持续军事作战的战术和作战现实很可能也会使西方军队原始化,而更好的技术既能部分应对这一挑战,也会使其变得脆弱。原始化不仅对国防工业和人事政策有影响,而且对部队设计和最终使用也有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Slouching Towards a Nuclear Gomorrah 向核灾难蹒跚迈进
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285608
Abstract The global nuclear order – encompassing measures to prevent nuclear war, slow the proliferation of nuclear weapons and manage peaceful nuclear technology – today faces pressures that threaten its very viability. Global cooperation to limit arms racing has all but ceased. Frustration with the failure of the nuclear powers to make progress towards disarmament has called into question the durability of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The mixture of incentives and penalties to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is losing its potency. A new grand bargain, equal in creativity and ambition to the one that birthed the NPT, is needed. The United States must signal willingness to make significant concessions to achieve a fresh consensus on global nuclear policy with two objectives. The first one is the prevention of a new arms race among the nuclear powers and the cessation of further proliferation. The second is a recommitment to sharing peaceful nuclear technology as part of a worldwide campaign to combat the climate crisis.
摘要 全球核秩序--包括防止核战争、减缓核武器扩散和管理和平核技术的措施--如今面临着威胁其生存的压力。限制军备竞赛的全球合作几乎已经停止。由于核大国未能在裁军方面取得进展,人们对《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)的持久性产生了怀疑。为防止核武器扩散而采取的奖惩措施正在失去效力。我们需要一个新的大谈判,其创造性和雄心壮志应不亚于《不扩散条约》的诞生。美国必须表示愿意做出重大让步,以就全球核政策达成新的共识,并实现两个目标。第一个目标是防止核大国之间的新一轮军备竞赛,停止进一步扩散。第二个目标是再次承诺共享和平核技术,将其作为应对气候危机的全球行动的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Israel and the Palestinians: The Day After 以色列与巴勒斯坦:第二天
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285602
Chuck Freilich
Abstract Hamas’s unprecedentedly brutal and indiscriminate attack against Israel on 7 October 2023 has probably permanently derailed, or at least substantially delayed, prospects for a two-state solution. Israel is likely to conclude that its most fundamental demand for any peace agreement – ironclad security arrangements – cannot be achieved. Even if a centrist Israeli government emerges following the war, the most the Palestinians can probably hope for is heightened autonomy, not full independence. Israel may show greater willingness to consider civil disengagement – that is, the dismantling of settlements in those parts of the West Bank that it would not wish to retain in a final peace settlement, probably over 90% of them – but with the Israel Defense Forces fully deployed throughout the area. Saudi–Israeli normalisation has been postponed, but may be salvageable, especially if the Saudis take an active role in the peace process and in reinstating the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Growing tensions could diminish the extraordinary US–Israeli strategic cooperation that arose immediately after the attack.
摘要 哈马斯于 2023 年 10 月 7 日对以色列发动了史无前例的野蛮和不分青红皂白的攻击,这很可能永久性地破坏了两国解决方案的前景,或至少大大推迟了两国解决方案的前景。以色列很可能得出这样的结论:它对任何和平协议的最基本要求--铁一般的安全安排--无法实现。即使战后出现了一个中间派的以色列政府,巴勒斯坦人所能希望的也很可能是加强自治,而不是完全独立。以色列可能会表现出更大的意愿来考虑民间脱离接触--即拆除西岸那些它不希望在最终和平解决方案中保留的定居点(可能超过 90%)--但以色列国防军要在整个地区全面部署。沙特与以色列的关系正常化已经推迟,但也许还有挽回的余地,特别是如果沙特在和平进程和恢复加沙巴勒斯坦权力机构方面发挥积极作用的话。日趋紧张的局势可能会削弱袭击发生后立即出现的美以非同寻常的战略合作。
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引用次数: 0
NATO at 75: The Perils of Empty Promises 北约 75 周年:空洞承诺的危险
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285606
Sara Bjerg Moller
Abstract Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO embarked on an ambitious series of military reforms aimed at enhancing deterrence and defence of the Euro-Atlantic area. However, as the Alliance approaches its 75th anniversary, concerns are mounting regarding the ability of non-US allies to meet their expanded security obligations. The Alliance’s updated regional-defence plans, and planned transformations to the NATO force and command structures, could pose considerable challenges for the European and Canadian allies who, following decades of cuts to their armed forces, lack the personnel required for implementing these reforms.
摘要 2022 年 2 月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之后,北约开始了一系列雄心勃勃的军事改革,旨在加强欧洲-大西洋地区的威慑力和防御能力。然而,随着北约成立 75 周年的临近,人们越来越担心非美国盟国是否有能力履行其扩大后的安全义务。联盟更新的区域防卫计划以及北约部队和指挥结构的转型计划,可能会给欧洲和加拿大盟国带来相当大的挑战,因为这些国家在几十年削减武装部队之后,缺乏实施这些改革所需的人员。
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引用次数: 0
The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Durability of Deterrence 俄乌战争与威慑的持久性
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285598
Lawrence Freedman
Abstract Both the Russian Federation and the United States and its allies have avoided taking actions carrying the greatest risk of escalation to nuclear-weapons use. Left uncertain is whether specific contingencies might yet prompt nuclear use. But the Russo-Ukrainian war has now been going on long enough to ground the debate in what has been said and done during its course. Russian nuclear decision-making requires the most attention, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements about it have been the most authoritative. He has defined Russia’s nuclear red line consistently and relatively restrictively, reserving the threat of nuclear use for an existential threat to the state. He has focused on deterring the West from fighting alongside Ukraine, disregarding those who wanted to punish the West for the support it was providing. So long as NATO continues to respect Putin’s red line, there is no reason to believe Putin would authorise nuclear use.
摘要 俄罗斯联邦和美国及其盟国都避免采取最有可能升级为使用核武器的行动。尚不确定的是,具体的突发事件是否会促使使用核武器。但俄乌战争已经持续了足够长的时间,足以让辩论立足于战争过程中的一言一行。俄罗斯的核决策最需要关注,而俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京的相关声明也最具权威性。他对俄罗斯核红线的定义始终如一且相对严格,将使用核武器的威胁保留给对国家生存构成威胁的情况。他将重点放在阻止西方国家与乌克兰并肩作战上,对那些希望惩罚西方国家提供支持的人不屑一顾。只要北约继续尊重普京的红线,就没有理由相信普京会授权使用核武器。
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引用次数: 0
Europe 欧洲
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285613
Hanns W. Maull
Homelands: A Personal History of Europe Timothy Garton Ash. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2023. $28.00. 384 pp. Democracy Erodes from the Top: Leaders, Citizens, and the Challenge of Populism in Europe Larry M. Bartels. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2023. £25.00/$29.95. 280 pp. Trading Power: West Germany’s Rise to Global Influence, 1963–1975 William Glenn Gray. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022. £34.99. 498 pp. Energy and Power: Germany in the Age of Oil, Atoms, and Climate Change Stephen G. Gross. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2023. £35.99. 408 pp. Europe Alone: Small State Security Without the United States David Schultz, Aurelija Pūraitė and Vidmantė Giedraitytė, eds. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2022. £100.00/$130.00. 451 pp.
家园:A Personal History of Europe Timothy Garton Ash.康涅狄格州纽黑文:耶鲁大学出版社,2023 年。$28.00.384 pp.Democracy Erodes from the Top: Leaders, Citizens, and the Challenge of Populism in Europe Larry M. Bartels.新泽西州普林斯顿:普林斯顿大学出版社,2023 年。£25.00/$29.95.280 pp.Trading Power:Trading Power: West Germany's Rise to Global Influence, 1963-1975 William Glenn Gray.剑桥:剑桥大学出版社,2022 年。£34.99.498 pp.能源与权力:石油、原子和气候变化时代的德国》(Germany in the Age of Oil, Atoms, and Climate Change),斯蒂芬-G-格罗斯(Stephen G. Gross)著。牛津:牛津大学出版社,2023 年。£35.99.408 pp.单独的欧洲:没有美国的小国安全 David Schultz、Aurelija Pūraitė 和 Vidmantė Giedraitytė 编辑。Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2022.£100.00/$130.00.451 pp.
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Survival
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