Differential demographic development and electoral homogenization of ethnic and class identities in modern Turkey

Abstract

The process of the formation of ethnic identities in Turkey was fairly intricate with the influence of migrations, conflicts and newly adopted ideologies. The differential demographic development between the three main ethnclass groups in the country was one of the main reasons that led to political and social tensions causing political and social crises in Turkish society. While the fertility of the secular part of society was in the process of constant stagnation after World War II, the more traditional part of society experienced a demographic growth that was accompanied by mass migrations to large cities and political mobilization of the economically neglected newly formed urban and young population, which led to electoral homogenization and social divisions in Turkish society. Fertility among ethnic Turks converged at the commencement of the XXI century, but the demographic transition has stalled among the Kurdish population due to economic underdevelopment, female illiteracy and the survival of traditional institutions of patriarchy. While at the given period, the total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Turks fell to 1.88, in the Kurdish provinces, it was still over 4, although in 2020 it fell to around 3. Turkey went through one of the fastest processes of the society modernization with a fast urbanization and education of the population in the last two decades, where the share of the population living in cities surpassed 80% and as one of the highest in Europe was followed by a further decline in fertility, an increase in secularity among youth and with new forms of political mobilization. Also, Turkey is facing one of the biggest refugee crises in the world with around 4 million refugees, mostly from Syria.