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The way of life and needs of young people in the villages of the Pčinja area: The example of the villages of Tibužde, Rataje and Vrtogoš p<s:1>因贾地区村庄年轻人的生活方式和需求:以Tibužde、Rataje和vrtogoß村为例
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2219057s
Gabriela Stojković-Miletić
The majority of rural youth do not see their strengths and opportunities for progress from socially rooted family relationships, as well as from the place of living. As such, together with the city's youth, is on the edge of Serbian society's system. Faced with numerous problems and accompanying phenomena, such as the prolonged youth due to education or the economic dependence on parents, the feeling of deprivation dominates among the rural youth, i.e. the state of completely or insufficiently fulfilled psychological, social or emotional needs. Migration of rural youth is generally one of the biggest issues of rural areas all over the world, including Serbia. A number of reasons attract rural youth population to the city (so-called pull factors): better livelihood prospects, a greater offer of jobs, higher level of earnings, entertainment contents, better opportunities for professional success, anonymity as well as a variety of goods and services, etc. The repulsive factors found in the countryside (the so-called push factors) are: shortage of arable land, unemployment, low and uncertain income and level of earnings, social control and dependence, monotony and boredom, insufficiently diverse offer of goods and services, etc. On the other hand, those who do not speak in favor of resettlement see the village as a place of greater freedom and peace.
大多数农村青年没有从植根于社会的家庭关系以及生活地点看到他们的优势和进步机会。因此,与城市的年轻人一起,处于塞尔维亚社会体系的边缘。面对许多问题和伴随的现象,如教育导致的青春延长或经济上对父母的依赖,剥夺感在农村青年中占主导地位,即完全或未充分满足心理、社会或情感需求的状态。农村青年的迁移通常是包括塞尔维亚在内的世界各地农村地区最大的问题之一。吸引农村青年人口到城市的原因有很多(所谓的拉动因素):更好的生计前景、更多的工作机会、更高的收入水平、娱乐内容、更好的职业成功机会、匿名以及各种各样的商品和服务,等等。农村的排斥因素(即所谓的推动因素)有:耕地短缺、失业、收入和收入水平低且不确定、社会控制和依赖、单调和无聊、商品和服务的提供不够多样化等。另一方面,那些不赞成重新安置的人认为这个村庄是一个更自由与和平的地方。
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引用次数: 0
Decomposition of basic mortality indicators in Serbia 1990-2021 1990-2021年塞尔维亚基本死亡率指标分解
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2219039m
I. Marinković
The research of thirty-year changes in the mortality of the population of Serbia (1990-2021) is given through two basic indicators of mortality. Using the decompose method to calculated the effect of population aging on the difference between crude mortality rates, as well as the contributions of specific mortality rates and leading causes of death in the changes in life expectancy. The crude death rate shows that the intensity of dying in Serbia is very high. The pandemic contributed to record values in the last two years. Overall, in the period 1990-2019, the negative contribution of the age structure is twice as intense as the positive effect of age-specific mortality rates. Aging is more intense in the female population, which explains the greater increase in the crude death rate in women. The data show that the importance of demographic aging has always been more pronounced. The main characteristic in the observed time interval is that mortality decreases at all ages and that all age groups had a positive effect on life expectancy, as well as that men and women in Serbia have a different pattern of decreasing mortality by age. The most significant effect on life expectancy was the reduction of infant mortality (a fifth of the total contribution), a common feature of the male and female populations. In other age groups, men have more pronounced contributions up to the age of 50, and women in older cohorts. Due to higher mortality rates, the space for improving mortality is greater in young and middle-aged men than in women, so the positive effects are more pronounced at these ages. The largest number of leading causes of death burdens the population of Serbia less now than three decades earlier. Cardiovascular diseases, as the leading cause of death, contributed the most to positive changes in mortality. The biggest effect of life expectancy is the reduction of mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system in the 65-79 year old population. Observed by gender, the effect is greater in the female population, where cardiovascular diseases contribute to the extension of life expectancy by as much as 67% or by 2.4 years, while in the male population the importance of cardiovascular diseases in the extension of life expectancy is lower and amounts to 42% or by 1.9 years. Tumors, as the second most common cause of death in Serbia, contribute negatively to those aged 50 and over and positively to younger age groups. The overall effect on life expectancy is positive, and mortality rates in men decline until the age of 60. In women, rates increase from age 50 or older, and of all causes of death, only tumors have an overall negative effect on life expectancy growth. Among the other causes, the importance of violent deaths and their positive effect should be singled out, due to the reduction of mortality rates at all ages, especially among the younger population. Positive changes in the age of 15-49 years in the male population contribute to
通过两个基本的死亡率指标,对塞尔维亚人口死亡率三十年(1990-2021年)的变化进行了研究。采用分解法计算人口老龄化对粗死亡率差异的影响,以及具体死亡率和主要死亡原因对预期寿命变化的贡献。粗死亡率表明,塞尔维亚的死亡强度非常高。大流行在过去两年中促成了创纪录的价值。总体而言,在1990年至2019年期间,年龄结构的负面影响是特定年龄死亡率的积极影响的两倍。女性人口的老龄化更为严重,这解释了女性粗死亡率增长更大的原因。数据显示,人口老龄化的重要性一直更加明显。所观察到的时间间隔的主要特点是,所有年龄段的死亡率都在下降,所有年龄组对预期寿命都有积极影响,塞尔维亚男女按年龄分列的死亡率下降模式不同。对预期寿命的最显著影响是婴儿死亡率的降低(占总贡献的五分之一),这是男性和女性人口的共同特征。在其他年龄组中,50岁以下的男性和50岁以上的女性的贡献更为显著。由于死亡率较高,青年和中年男子改善死亡率的空间比妇女更大,因此在这些年龄段的积极影响更为明显。主要死亡原因对塞尔维亚人口的负担比30年前减轻了。心血管疾病作为主要死亡原因,对死亡率的积极变化贡献最大。预期寿命的最大影响是降低65-79岁人口因循环系统疾病导致的死亡率。从性别来看,这种影响在女性人口中更大,心血管疾病对延长预期寿命的贡献高达67%或2.4年,而在男性人口中,心血管疾病对延长预期寿命的重要性较低,为42%或1.9年。肿瘤是塞尔维亚第二大最常见的死亡原因,对50岁及以上的人不利,对较年轻的年龄组有利。对预期寿命的总体影响是积极的,60岁以前男性的死亡率下降。在妇女中,死亡率从50岁或50岁以上开始上升,在所有死亡原因中,只有肿瘤对预期寿命增长产生总体负面影响。在其他原因中,应特别指出暴力死亡的重要性及其积极影响,因为所有年龄段的死亡率,特别是年轻人口的死亡率都有所下降。15-49岁男性人口的积极变化使预期寿命甚至增加了1岁。在女性人群中,在所有年龄段也存在正贡献,但效果要低得多。COVID-19大流行给塞尔维亚带来了过去70年来最高的死亡率增幅。与2017-2019年的平均水平相比,大流行第一年的死亡率上升了14%,第二年上升了34%。粗死亡率大幅上升,2020年男性的粗死亡率为18.0‰,2021年的最高值为每1 000人死亡21人。对于妇女,这一死亡率分别为15.9‰和19.0‰(分别为2020年和2021年)。与2019年相比,男女死亡率的变化完全是按年龄划分的死亡率增加的结果,而按年龄划分的人口分布变化在此期间的影响可以忽略不计。最后一个分析年份(2021年)显示,与大流行前相比,男性预期寿命减少了3.4岁。在此期间,塞尔维亚妇女的预期寿命下降幅度略小,为2.9年。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of households and energy poverty in Serbia 塞尔维亚家庭和能源贫困的人口和社会经济特征
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2219077p
I. Poljak
Energy issues and energy poverty became very important when dealing with global development challenges and sustainable development agenda, and as the years pass more precise indicators are formed to follow this phenomenon from various perspectives. One way to follow and analyze energy poverty is through the indicators proposed by the European Commission and the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Based on the main EU-SILC indicators for Serbia for 2020, this analysis explored a relationship between energy poverty and household income disaggregated by available data about regions, degree of urbanization, household types, and sex-age structure. It also tended to position Serbia within the European context regarding energy poverty. Based on the available data, it was found that people living in thinly populated areas expressed a higher share of vulnerabilities than those living in densely populated areas. Also, persons at risk of poverty are more vulnerable than the total population. When it comes to household types, people living in a single-person household are the most vulnerable, followed by the single-parent household with dependent children.
在应对全球发展挑战和可持续发展议程时,能源问题和能源贫困变得非常重要,随着时间的推移,从各个角度形成了更精确的指标来跟踪这一现象。跟踪和分析能源贫困的一种方法是通过欧盟委员会和收入和生活条件调查(EU-SILC)提出的指标。基于2020年塞尔维亚的欧盟- silc主要指标,本分析探讨了能源贫困与家庭收入之间的关系,并按地区、城市化程度、家庭类型和性别年龄结构等现有数据进行了分类。它还倾向于将塞尔维亚置于欧洲能源贫困的范围内。根据现有数据,人们发现,生活在人口稀少地区的人比生活在人口稠密地区的人更容易受到伤害。此外,面临贫困风险的人比总人口更容易受到伤害。从家庭类型来看,单身家庭是最脆弱的,其次是有孩子的单亲家庭。
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引用次数: 0
Contraceptive use and reproductive intentions among female students at the University of Novi Sad 诺维萨德大学女学生的避孕药具使用和生育意愿
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2219001s
Milena Sekulić, Milica Solarević, Anđelija Ivkov-Džigurski, Ljubica Ivanovic-Bibic
Family planning is the ability of individuals and couples to have the desired number of children at a time when they want to. This is achieved using contraceptive methods and the treatment of unintentional infertility. Family planning is crucial for women's empowerment, and gender equality and is an essential factor in reducing world poverty. The research was conducted on an electronic survey questionnaire on the final sample size of 660 female students from the University of Novi Sad (Serbia). Survey results were analyzed using SPSS 23 software for Windows (Statistical Package for Social Sciences). The aim of the study is the analysis of the reproductive intensions regarding the structure of contraceptive use, from which comes the secondary objective, which is identification of the need for the sexual and reproductive education of young people. More than half of female students use modern contraceptives, but a significant proportion of female students rely on traditional methods such as withdrawal (coitus interruptus) (26.0%) and calendar methods (10.7%).
计划生育是指个人和夫妇在他们想要的时间生育所需数量的孩子的能力。这是通过使用避孕方法和治疗意外不孕症来实现的。计划生育对赋予妇女权力和两性平等至关重要,是减少世界贫困的一个重要因素。该研究是通过电子调查问卷对来自诺维萨德大学(塞尔维亚)的660名女学生的最终样本量进行的。使用SPSS 23 (Statistical Package for Social Sciences)软件对调查结果进行分析。这项研究的目的是分析避孕药具使用结构对生殖的影响,由此产生第二个目标,即确定对青年人进行性教育和生殖教育的必要性。半数以上的女学生使用现代避孕方法,但仍有相当比例的女学生依赖传统方法,如停药(性交中断)(26.0%)和日历方法(10.7%)。
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引用次数: 0
Differential demographic development and electoral homogenization of ethnic and class identities in modern Turkey 现代土耳其不同的人口发展和种族和阶级认同的选举同质化
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2219021p
Miodrag Pantović
The process of the formation of ethnic identities in Turkey was fairly intricate with the influence of migrations, conflicts and newly adopted ideologies. The differential demographic development between the three main ethnclass groups in the country was one of the main reasons that led to political and social tensions causing political and social crises in Turkish society. While the fertility of the secular part of society was in the process of constant stagnation after World War II, the more traditional part of society experienced a demographic growth that was accompanied by mass migrations to large cities and political mobilization of the economically neglected newly formed urban and young population, which led to electoral homogenization and social divisions in Turkish society. Fertility among ethnic Turks converged at the commencement of the XXI century, but the demographic transition has stalled among the Kurdish population due to economic underdevelopment, female illiteracy and the survival of traditional institutions of patriarchy. While at the given period, the total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Turks fell to 1.88, in the Kurdish provinces, it was still over 4, although in 2020 it fell to around 3. Turkey went through one of the fastest processes of the society modernization with a fast urbanization and education of the population in the last two decades, where the share of the population living in cities surpassed 80% and as one of the highest in Europe was followed by a further decline in fertility, an increase in secularity among youth and with new forms of political mobilization. Also, Turkey is facing one of the biggest refugee crises in the world with around 4 million refugees, mostly from Syria.
由于移民、冲突和新采用的意识形态的影响,土耳其民族认同的形成过程相当复杂。该国三个主要民族阶级之间的人口发展差异是导致政治和社会紧张局势的主要原因之一,从而在土耳其社会造成政治和社会危机。第二次世界大战后,社会中世俗部分的生育率一直处于停滞状态,而社会中更传统的部分则经历了人口增长,伴随着向大城市的大规模迁移,以及对经济上被忽视的新形成的城市和年轻人口的政治动员,这导致了土耳其社会的选举同质化和社会分裂。土耳其族的生育率在21世纪初趋于一致,但由于经济不发达、女性文盲和传统父权制度的存在,库尔德人口的人口转型停滞不前。在此期间,土耳其族的总生育率(TFR)降至1.88,而在库尔德省,它仍然超过4,尽管在2020年降至3左右。在过去的二十年里,土耳其经历了快速城市化和人口教育的社会现代化进程中最快的过程之一,其中居住在城市的人口比例超过80%,是欧洲最高的人口之一,随后生育率进一步下降,年轻人的世俗性增加,政治动员的新形式。此外,土耳其正面临着世界上最大的难民危机之一,大约有400万难民,其中大部分来自叙利亚。
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引用次数: 0
Regional analysis of COVID-19 mortality in Serbia 塞尔维亚COVID-19死亡率的区域分析
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118001m
I. Marinković
The pandemic generated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus should be viewed as a severe public health threat because, in the first ten months of its existence, over 3 million people perished worldwide. According to available data, mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic is markedly different across countries but also within them. In the analysis of the consequences of the mortality pandemic in Serbia in 2020, the final data of vital statistics published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia were used. The results of the research are presented at all territorial statistical-administrative levels (except the settlement level). The research showed that the highest intensity of deaths due to the new disease is in the south of the country and larger city centers (Belgrade, Nis, Kragujevac). Vojvodina and the districts and municipalities that belong to it have the most favorable values in Serbia. The quality of mortality data by cause of death varies considerably at different statistical-administrative levels, primarily with the underreporting of COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. As a more reliable indicator of the impact of the pandemic on the total mortality of the population, excess mortality indicates a record-high increase in mortality in 2020 in Presevo, Sjenica, and Novi Pazar. The difference between the northern part of Serbia and the southern part in mortality due to COVID-19 is potentially based on more intergenerational contacts and more pronounced population migrations, so it can be stated that the rate of transmission is a more important determinant of mortality in the population of different parts of Serbia, than the level of available health care or age structure. different statistical-administrative levels, primarily with the underreporting of COVID-19 as the leading cause of death (a striking example is the Kolubara district). As a more reliable indicator of the impact of the pandemic on the total mortality of the population, excess mortality indicates a record-high increase in mortality in 2020 in Presevo, Sjenica, and Novi Pazar. Once virus transmission takes root in the community, parts of the country with high intergenerational contacts can see the faster infection rate. The difference between the northern part of Serbia and the southern part in mortality due to COVID-19 is potentially based on higher intergenerational contacts and more pronounced population migrations. It can be stated that the degree of transmission of the infection is a more important determinant of mortality in the population of different parts of Serbia than the level of available health care or age structure.
由SARS-CoV-2病毒引起的大流行应被视为严重的公共卫生威胁,因为在其存在的头十个月里,全世界有300多万人死亡。根据现有数据,COVID-19大流行造成的死亡率在各国之间存在显著差异,而且在各国内部也存在显著差异。在分析2020年塞尔维亚死亡率大流行的后果时,使用了塞尔维亚共和国统计局公布的人口动态统计的最终数据。研究结果是在所有领土统计行政级别(除定居点级别)提出的。研究表明,这种新疾病造成的死亡人数最高的是该国南部和较大的城市中心(贝尔格莱德、尼斯、克拉古耶瓦茨)。伏伊伏丁那及其所属的地区和直辖市在塞尔维亚拥有最有利的价值。按死亡原因分列的死亡率数据的质量在不同的统计行政级别差异很大,主要是COVID-19作为主要死亡原因的少报。作为大流行对人口总死亡率影响的更可靠指标,超额死亡率表明,2020年普雷塞沃、杰尼察和新帕扎尔的死亡率增幅创历史新高。塞尔维亚北部和南部在COVID-19死亡率方面的差异可能是基于更多的代际接触和更明显的人口迁移,因此可以说,传播率是塞尔维亚不同地区人口死亡率的一个更重要的决定因素,而不是现有医疗保健水平或年龄结构。不同的统计行政级别,主要是少报COVID-19作为主要死亡原因(一个显著的例子是科卢巴拉县)。作为大流行对人口总死亡率影响的更可靠指标,超额死亡率表明,2020年普雷塞沃、杰尼察和新帕扎尔的死亡率增幅创历史新高。一旦病毒传播在社区扎根,该国代际接触较多的地区的感染率会更快。塞尔维亚北部和南部在COVID-19死亡率方面的差异可能是由于代际接触较多和人口迁移更明显。可以说,感染的传播程度是决定塞尔维亚不同地区人口死亡率的一个更重要因素,而不是现有保健水平或年龄结构。
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引用次数: 0
Covid -19 and fertility in Serbia: Rough pandemic impact assessment Covid -19和塞尔维亚的生育率:大流行影响的粗略评估
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118019v
P. Vasic
Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and outbreaks of infectious diseases, shows that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced a wide spectrum of everyday life, from employment, financial wellbeing, uncertainty and health concerns, to work and family reconciliation, dating, marrying, and family planning, thus we may expect certain effect on fertility rates too. The possible impact of the COVID19 pandemic on the birth aggregate during 2021 in Serbia will be calculated based on three different methodologies: Bertillon Birth Effect methodology (BBE), Kearney and Levine (2020) methodology, and Pandemic Wave Impact methodology (PWI - as a newly proposed methodology approach). The primary aim of the paper is to show a potential range of influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the total number of live births in Serbia during 2021, and the secondary aim is to test our presumptions that this impact mustn't always be negative and that the impact of the pandemic is weakening during the lifespan of the outbreak.
过去关于生育率对外部冲击(包括经济衰退和传染病爆发)的反应的证据表明,在不确定时期,人们往往会暂停生育计划。2019冠状病毒病大流行的爆发影响了日常生活的方方面面,从就业、财务状况、不确定性和健康问题,到工作和家庭和解、约会、结婚和计划生育,因此我们可以预期,生育率也会受到一定影响。2019冠状病毒病大流行对塞尔维亚2021年出生总量的可能影响将根据三种不同的方法进行计算:Bertillon出生效应方法(BBE)、Kearney和Levine(2020)方法和大流行波影响方法(PWI -作为新提出的方法方法)。本文的主要目的是展示2019冠状病毒病大流行对塞尔维亚2021年活产总数的潜在影响范围,次要目的是检验我们的假设,即这种影响不一定总是负面的,而且大流行的影响在爆发期间正在减弱。
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引用次数: 0
International female migrants in the labour market, with regard to COVID-19 pandemic 与COVID-19大流行有关的劳动力市场中的国际女性移徙者
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118093l
Vesna Lukić
The rise in the volume of international migration at the global level has resulted in increased participation of migrants in the labour market of the receiving countries, imposing needs for targeted integration policies and measures. A significant proportion of international migrants around the world are women. Relying on statistical data and relevant literature, the paper analyzes and critically discusses the position of migrant women in the labour market of destination countries, pointing out limitations and problems they face with. In this regard, the paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of the international migration of women, with special emphasis on determining the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the position of women born abroad in the Serbian labour market, but also female migrants from Serbia. While discussing gender differences in the position of international migrants on the labour market, the dual vulnerability of female migrants was pointed out as well as the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the deepening of gender inequalities. The need to formulate policies and measures sensitive to the vulnerability of a social group of women with migrant backgrounds had been emphasized.
全球一级国际移徙人数的增加导致移徙者更多地参与接受国的劳动力市场,因此需要有针对性的融合政策和措施。世界各地的国际移徙者中有很大一部分是妇女。本文依靠统计数据和相关文献,分析和批判性地讨论了移民妇女在目的国劳动力市场中的地位,指出了她们面临的限制和问题。在这方面,本文旨在有助于更好地了解妇女的国际移徙,特别强调确定COVID-19大流行对在国外出生的妇女在塞尔维亚劳动力市场上的地位的影响,以及对来自塞尔维亚的女性移民的影响。在讨论国际移徙者在劳动力市场上地位的性别差异时,与会者指出了女性移徙者的双重脆弱性,以及2019冠状病毒病大流行可能加深性别不平等的影响。有人强调有必要制定顾及具有移徙背景的社会妇女群体的脆弱性的政策和措施。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic summary of Serbia in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行第一年塞尔维亚人口概况
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118002p
G. Penev
In Serbia, from a demographic point of view, 2020 certainly stands out as one of the most significant years of the twenty-first century and, with respect to mortality, of the period after the end of the Second World War. This is mainly linked to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has spread across the planet at an unprecedented rate. The aim of this paper is to present the analysis of Serbia's basic demographic data during the first year of the pandemic and to highlight the most important demographic consequences of the epidemic of the current coronavirus disease. As of 31 December 2020, according to the official SORS estimates, Serbia had 6,871,500 inhabitants, 55,000 fewer than in 2019. The decline is 74% higher than the 20-year average. As the estimates do not include net migration, the real population size is significantly smaller and, according to the author's opinion, it reaches a maximum of 6.7 million (as in 1961). The death toll was 116,850 and it is 15.2% higher than in 2019. This is the highest annual number of deaths, as well as the highest annual increase, since 1950. There have been 10,365 COVID-19 deaths (8.9% of total mortality and 67.2% of excess mortality). At the same time, a record was set in terms of the number of births, but in the opposite direction. In 2020, 61,692 babies were born, which is 4.2% less than in 2019 and was also the smallest number of births since 1900. The changes in the age structure are negligible compared to 2019, but very significant compared to the age-pyramids in 2002 and 2011. The share of people aged 65 years or over (21.3%) as well as the median age of 44.0 years indicate that, in 2020, Serbia belongs to the group of ten oldest populations in the world.
在塞尔维亚,从人口的角度来看,2020年无疑是21世纪最重要的年份之一,就死亡率而言,也是第二次世界大战结束后时期最重要的年份之一。这主要与COVID-19大流行的爆发有关,该流行病以前所未有的速度在全球蔓延。本文的目的是对大流行第一年塞尔维亚的基本人口数据进行分析,并强调当前冠状病毒疾病流行的最重要人口后果。根据官方估计,截至2020年12月31日,塞尔维亚有687.15万居民,比2019年减少了5.5万人。这一降幅比20年平均水平高出74%。由于估计数不包括净移徙,实际人口规模要小得多,根据作者的意见,最多达到670万(与1961年一样)。死亡人数为116850人,比2019年增加15.2%。这是自1950年以来最高的年死亡人数,也是最高的年增长率。新冠肺炎死亡10365例(占总死亡率的8.9%,占超额死亡率的67.2%)。与此同时,出生人数也创下了纪录,但方向相反。2020年,有61692名婴儿出生,比2019年减少4.2%,也是自1900年以来出生人数最少的一年。与2019年相比,年龄结构的变化微不足道,但与2002年和2011年的年龄金字塔相比,变化非常大。65岁或65岁以上人口的比例(21.3%)以及年龄中位数为44.0岁表明,到2020年,塞尔维亚属于世界上最老的10个人口群体。
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引用次数: 1
The effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the premature mortality in Serbia in 2020 2019冠状病毒病大流行对2020年塞尔维亚过早死亡的影响
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118057g
M. Galjak
Serbia is experiencing a massive number of deaths due to COVID-19. One way to express this mortality is by measuring the years of potential life lost to this disease. This paper looks at the cost of the pandemic in 2020 to premature deaths in Serbia. The final data on mortality in 2020 in Serbia provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia is used to measure this loss. Premature mortality is examined through geographical, age, and sex dimensions. In total, 64.620 years of potential life were lost directly by COVID-19, i.e., 1019.14 years of potential life per 100 000 people younger than 75. Men lost 2.5 as many potential years of life then women did. Moreover, the region of eastern and Southern Serbia fared much worse than any other region. There is no clear pattern regarding the rural/urban divide, as some of the hardest-hit municipalities were rural and urban. The analysis was expanded to include the estimate of the economic cost of premature mortality due to the COVID-19. In 2020 more than $0.34 billion was lost to premature deaths, and by the end of 2021, this number will likely be well over $1 billion when the pandemic ends. The direct cost of premature deaths on future birth rates will not be pronounced as very few women younger than 50 died to affect future birth rates significantly.
塞尔维亚正在经历COVID-19造成的大量死亡。表达这种死亡率的一种方法是衡量因这种疾病而丧失的潜在寿命年数。本文着眼于2020年大流行对塞尔维亚过早死亡的代价。我们使用塞尔维亚共和国统计局提供的2020年塞尔维亚死亡率的最终数据来衡量这一损失。通过地理、年龄和性别维度检查过早死亡率。总的来说,COVID-19直接损失了64.620年的潜在寿命,即每10万名75岁以下的人损失了1019.14年的潜在寿命。男性失去的潜在寿命是女性的2.5年。此外,塞尔维亚东部和南部地区的情况比任何其他地区都要糟糕得多。农村/城市的划分没有明确的模式,因为一些受灾最严重的城市是农村和城市。扩大了分析范围,纳入了对COVID-19导致过早死亡的经济成本的估计。2020年,过早死亡造成的损失超过3.4亿美元,到2021年底,当大流行结束时,这一数字可能会远远超过10亿美元。过早死亡对未来出生率的直接影响不会很明显,因为很少有50岁以下的妇女死亡,对未来出生率产生重大影响。
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Demografija
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