The Vanishing Curse: Crude Oil

Elie Elhadj
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Abstract

In a world addicted to crude oil, US control over Saudi Arabia's oil exports is a non-lethal weapon of mass destruction. Due to resistance by politicians, bankers, and investors to writing-off trillions of dollars in fossil fuel assets, global greening will evolve over two stages. The first stage will likely materialize between 2030 and 2040, as the world’s two biggest oil importers, China and Europe, replace the internal combustion engine with the electric vehicle to enhance their national security. The first stage will cause most global demand for oil to disappear, with serious consequences for the economies and the political map of the Middle East. The second stage will evolve over a century, or more. It will abandon coal and natural gas and enhance environmental protection.
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消失的诅咒:原油
在一个对原油上瘾的世界里,美国对沙特阿拉伯石油出口的控制是一种非致命的大规模杀伤性武器。由于政治家、银行家和投资者反对注销数万亿美元的化石燃料资产,全球绿化将分为两个阶段。第一阶段将在2030年至2040年之间实现,届时世界上最大的两个石油进口国中国和欧洲为加强国家安全,将用电动汽车取代内燃机。第一阶段将导致全球对石油的大部分需求消失,给中东的经济和政治版图带来严重后果。第二阶段将持续一个世纪,甚至更长时间。弃煤弃气,加强环境保护。
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