Prediction for the Inventory Management Chaotic Complexity System Based on the Deep Neural Network Algorithm

Tengfei Lei, R. Li, Nuttapong Jotikastira, Haiyan Fu, Cong Wang
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Abstract

Precise inventory prediction is the key to goods inventory and safety management. Accurate inventory prediction improves enterprises’ production efficiency. It is also essential to control costs and optimize the supply chain’s performance. Nevertheless, the complex inventory data are often chaotic and nonlinear; high data complexity raises the accuracy prediction difficulty. This study simulated inventory records by using the dynamics inventory management system. Four deep neural network models trained the data: short-term memory neural network (LSTM), convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM), and deep long-short-term memory neural network (DLSTM). Evaluating the models’ performance based on RMSE, MSE, and MAE, bi-LSTM achieved the highest prediction accuracy with the least square error of 0.14%. The results concluded that the complexity of the model was not directly related to the prediction performance. By contrasting several methods of chaotic nonlinear inventory data and neural network dynamics prediction, this study contributed to the academia. The research results provided useful advice for companies’ planned production and inventory officers when they plan for product inventory and minimize the risk of mishaps brought on by excess inventories in warehouses.
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基于深度神经网络算法的库存管理混沌复杂系统预测
准确的库存预测是货物库存和安全管理的关键。准确的库存预测可以提高企业的生产效率。控制成本和优化供应链绩效也是至关重要的。然而,复杂的库存数据往往是混沌的和非线性的;数据复杂性高,提高了准确性预测的难度。本研究利用动态库存管理系统模拟库存记录。四种深度神经网络模型训练数据:短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)、卷积神经网络-长短期记忆(CNN-LSTM)、双向长短期记忆神经网络(Bi-LSTM)和深度长短期记忆神经网络(DLSTM)。基于RMSE、MSE和MAE评估模型的性能,bi-LSTM的预测精度最高,最小二乘误差为0.14%。结果表明,模型的复杂度与预测性能没有直接关系。通过对几种混沌非线性库存数据预测方法与神经网络动态预测方法的对比,为学术界的研究做出了贡献。研究结果为公司的计划生产和库存管理人员在计划产品库存时提供了有益的建议,并最大限度地降低了仓库库存过剩带来的事故风险。
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