From the Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe to the Arab Spring: Lessons for Democratic Transition

Ayfer Erdoğan
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

The last two years have witnessed an unexpected series of events unfolding in the Arab World leading us to make comparisons with the fall of Communism in 1989. Developments in the Middle East and North Africa made headway at a rapid pace. The overthrow of governments in Tunisia and Egypt, the civil war in Libya and the ongoing inner conflicts in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen were just as unexpected and stunning as the fall of communism in Eastern Europe. It is ironic that many observers attempting to make sense of these events have chosen the term 'Arab Spring' to define this movement, which somehow recalls the Eastern European analogue 'Prague Spring' in 1968. Many political scientists and analysts viewed these events taking the fall of Communism as a common point of reference. The Arab Spring is reminiscent of the Eastern European Revolutions in 1989 in many respects, yet a deeper analysis shows that significant similarities are outweighed by key differences. This paper attempts to address the recent wave of democratization which has swept across the Arab world in a comparative context and discuss the similarities and differences between the Arab Spring in 2011 and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989.
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从东欧共产主义的崩溃到阿拉伯之春:民主转型的教训
过去两年,阿拉伯世界发生了一系列意想不到的事件,使我们将其与1989年共产主义的垮台进行比较。中东和北非的事态发展进展迅速。突尼斯和埃及的政府被推翻,利比亚的内战,以及巴林、叙利亚和也门持续不断的内部冲突,就像东欧共产主义的垮台一样出人意料,令人震惊。具有讽刺意味的是,许多试图理解这些事件的观察者选择了“阿拉伯之春”一词来定义这场运动,这在某种程度上让人想起了1968年东欧的“布拉格之春”。许多政治学家和分析人士将这些事件视为共产主义垮台的共同参考点。阿拉伯之春在许多方面都让人想起1989年的东欧革命,但更深入的分析表明,重大的相似之处超过了关键的不同之处。本文试图在比较的背景下解决最近席卷阿拉伯世界的民主化浪潮,并讨论2011年阿拉伯之春与1989年东欧共产主义垮台之间的异同。
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