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The EU-Turkey refugee deal of autumn 2015 as a two-level game 2015年秋季的欧盟-土耳其难民协议是一场两级博弈
Pub Date : 2016-04-26 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.05055
T. Krumm
The Syrian refugee crisis has put EU-Turkey relations under pressure for action, as in 2015 hundreds of thousands used the Turkey-Balkan route to entre central Europe. However, with some countries as Germany, Austria, and Sweden ‘suffering’ more than others under the influx, pressure for action including Turkey was especially high in these countries. Against this background, the article aims to analyse the EU-Turkey negotiations of autumn 2015 as a ‘two-level game’, with special interest on domestic factors possibly to impact on Turkish or German bargaining power. In both countries,  the need for an agreement in the refugee issue at international level was accompanied by specific domestic conditions such as the contested ‘open-doors policy’ introduced ad hoc by chancellor Merkel on September 4, 2015, as well as the hung parliament after the June elections on the Turkish side. Against this obvious entanglement of domestic and international issues, the article applies the basic logic of ‘two level games’ as introduced by Robert Putnam on the EU/German-Turkish negotiations leading up to the ‘refugee deal’ (EU action plan) of November 2015. Among others, it turned out that significant veto powers in both countries were not in sight and that a non-agreement would have raised the political costs for Germany more than for Turkey, thus enlarging the German ‘win-set’ size of acceptable solutions.
叙利亚难民危机使欧盟与土耳其的关系面临采取行动的压力,因为2015年有数十万人通过土耳其-巴尔干路线进入中欧。然而,由于德国、奥地利和瑞典等一些国家在难民涌入下比其他国家“遭受”更大的“痛苦”,包括土耳其在内的这些国家采取行动的压力尤其大。在此背景下,本文旨在分析2015年秋季欧盟与土耳其的谈判是一场“两级博弈”,特别关注可能影响土耳其或德国议价能力的国内因素。在这两个国家,需要在国际层面上就难民问题达成协议是伴随着具体的国内条件的,比如总理默克尔在2015年9月4日特别提出的有争议的“门户开放政策”,以及土耳其方面在6月选举后的悬浮议会。针对这种明显的国内和国际问题的纠缠,本文采用了Robert Putnam在2015年11月欧盟/德国-土耳其“难民协议”(欧盟行动计划)谈判中引入的“两级博弈”的基本逻辑。其中,事实证明,两国都不可能拥有重要的否决权,而不达成协议将增加德国的政治成本,而不是土耳其的政治成本,从而扩大了德国“双赢”的可接受解决方案规模。
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引用次数: 2
Trading Places: How Turkey Can Join the Rich, Using Trade Policy 贸易场所:土耳其如何利用贸易政策加入富国行列
Pub Date : 2016-04-26 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.14121
Bilge Gursoy, Kaan Diyarbakirlioğlu
The aim of Turkey’s 2023 Vision Project, which coincides with the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey, is to bring the Turkish economy into the ranks of high-income countries. To reach this goal, strategies have been drawn up with a focus on the mid- and long-term future of the economy. However, the current state of affairs indicates that the Turkish economy has fallen into the middle income trap, and the key to breaking free of that is reconfiguring a model of growth that focuses on production. In light of that situation, the aim of the study is to provide a discussion of the trade policies and strategies that could be used to realize an effective model of economic growth.
土耳其2023年愿景项目恰逢土耳其共和国成立100周年,其目标是将土耳其经济带入高收入国家的行列。为了实现这一目标,我们制定了以经济的中长期未来为重点的战略。然而,目前的事态表明,土耳其经济已经陷入了中等收入陷阱,摆脱这个陷阱的关键是重新配置一种以生产为重点的增长模式。鉴于这种情况,本研究的目的是提供一个贸易政策和战略的讨论,可以用来实现一个有效的经济增长模式。
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引用次数: 1
Samtskhe-Javakheti Region: A Neglected Keypoint for European Security of Energy Supply? Samtskhe-Javakheti地区:欧洲能源供应安全的一个被忽视的关键点?
Pub Date : 2016-04-26 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.76361
Utku Yapici
It is no doubt that the rise of new energy actors in post-Soviet geographic space such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan was welcomed by Western power centers. Those emerging actors were assessed as partners in diminishing Europe’s energy dependence to a single supplier; the Russian Federation. In this context, the main Western initiatives to challenge Russian energy dominance regarding the Caspian Basin were the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, and South Caucasus gas pipeline. These two strategic pipelines pass through the territories of Samtskhe-Javakheti region of Georgia - a tiny administrative unit adjacent to the Turkish city of Ardahan and Armenian city of Gyumri. Because of that, any political turmoil in that strategic region should easily turn into a factor endangering both already unsatisfactory regional stability and European energy security. In this article, Samtskhe-Javakheti region’s economic and demographic characteristics that make it unique and prone to instability are analyzed and European Union’s Samtskhe-Javakheti policy is evaluated through the lens of security of energy supply. The conclusion of the paper is that, the European Union failed to establish influential cooperation mechanisms to avoid political and economic instabilities in this transit region. The European Union simply lacks a comprehensive regional plan compatible with the sociological and economic realities of Samtskhe-Javakheti.
毫无疑问,阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦等后苏联地区新能源国家的崛起受到了西方权力中心的欢迎。这些新兴参与者被评估为减少欧洲对单一供应商的能源依赖的合作伙伴;俄罗斯联邦。在这种情况下,西方挑战俄罗斯在里海盆地能源主导地位的主要举措是巴库-第比利斯-杰伊汉(BTC)石油管道和南高加索天然气管道。这两条战略管道穿过格鲁吉亚萨姆茨赫-贾瓦赫蒂地区的领土,该地区是毗邻土耳其城市阿尔达汉和亚美尼亚城市久姆里的一个小行政单位。正因为如此,这个战略地区的任何政治动荡都很容易变成一个危及本已不令人满意的地区稳定和欧洲能源安全的因素。本文分析了samtskh - javakheti地区独特的经济和人口特征,并从能源供应安全的角度对欧盟的samtskh - javakheti政策进行了评估。本文的结论是,欧盟未能建立有影响力的合作机制,以避免这一过境地区的政治和经济不稳定。欧洲联盟根本缺乏一项与萨姆茨赫-贾瓦赫蒂的社会和经济现实相适应的全面区域计划。
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引用次数: 0
The ILO’s Safety and Health in Mines Convention: Reframing the Scope of Obligations for a Sustainable World 劳工组织的《矿山安全与健康公约:重建可持续世界的义务范围》
Pub Date : 2016-04-26 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.27139
Jeffrey Hilgert
On March 23, 2015 the Turkish government ratified ILO Convention No. 176, the international labour convention concerning occupational safety and health in mines. This multilateral treaty will enter into force for Turkey in 2016. After a lengthy advocacy campaign that received renewed attention after major disasters in the mining industry, more attention is being paid to the implementation of this important ILO convention. Post-ratification application of the convention in the unique Turkish context requires revisiting the obligations of the convention itself. Whether the convention becomes an empty promise to Turkish mine workers or a living document for the protection of worker safety and health remains an open question. Recent recommendations by an ILO technical assistance project raise important questions about the scope of Convention No. 176 and the need for stronger efforts by the Turkish state to achieve reform in the coal mining industry. This article discusses the ILO’s Safety and Health in Mines Convention in light of recent ILO technical assistance work in Turkey. It outlines arguments in favor of a more expanded legal interpretation of the obligations of Convention No. 176 in light of dangerous business practices in the coal mining industry and in light of the global community’s new international consensus on sustainable development.
2015年3月23日,土耳其政府批准了国际劳工组织第176号公约,即关于矿山职业安全和健康的国际劳工公约。该多边条约将于2016年对土耳其生效。在采矿业发生重大灾害后,经过一场长期的宣传运动重新受到重视,现在更加重视劳工组织这项重要公约的执行。《公约》批准后在土耳其独特的情况下的适用需要重新审视《公约》本身的义务。《公约》是成为对土耳其矿工的空洞承诺,还是成为保护工人安全和健康的活文件,仍是一个悬而未决的问题。劳工组织技术援助项目最近提出的建议对第176号公约的范围提出了重要的问题,并提出土耳其国家需要作出更大的努力来实现煤炭开采工业的改革。本文结合劳工组织最近在土耳其开展的技术援助工作,讨论了劳工组织的《矿山安全与健康公约》。它概述了赞成根据煤矿工业的危险商业做法和国际社会关于可持续发展的新的国际协商一致意见对第176号公约的义务作出更广泛的法律解释的论点。
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引用次数: 1
U.S.-Turkey Relationship and Syrian Crisis 美土关系与叙利亚危机
Pub Date : 2016-04-26 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.04576
Tufail Ahmad Peerzada
The Syrian crisis is an amalgamation of strategic struggle for power and influence in the Middle East and the internal and external factors which are based on ethnic lines. Some are supporting the Assad regime, while as some are against it. The Syrian crisis has now transformed from a domestic or regional issue to a global security issue. The removal of Assad is a central step for both the Syrian people as well as the anti-Assad comp. However, after three years of fighting, the situation seems to be complex and without any possible outcome. In addition, the presence of extremists (ISIS) and a strong Iranian and Russian support for the regime, the Syrian crisis is jeopardizing the interests of both U.S. and Turkey. Both U.S. and Turkey have numerous national security interests at stake in Syria. However, the interests of both the countries do not perfectly match with each other. Turkey is unhappy about U.S’s unwillingness to help the opposition to topple the Assad regime. Different priorities in the conflict have strained the bilateral relations. The aim of this paper is to analyse the U.S-Turkey relations in the light of recent Syrian crisis. An attempt will be made to highlight the issues which strain the bilateral relationship. This paper will highlight the divergent and convergent points in U.S-Turkey relations. This paper will also focus on U.S and Turkish policies vis-a-vis Syria. The policies of both the countries will be critically evaluated.
叙利亚危机是中东地区争夺权力和影响力的战略斗争以及基于种族界线的内外因素的综合。一些人支持阿萨德政权,而另一些人则反对。叙利亚危机已经从国内或地区问题转变为全球安全问题。阿萨德下台对叙利亚人民和反阿萨德组织来说都是关键一步,然而,经过三年的战斗,局势似乎很复杂,没有任何可能的结果。此外,极端分子(ISIS)的存在以及伊朗和俄罗斯对该政权的强大支持,叙利亚危机正在危及美国和土耳其的利益。美国和土耳其在叙利亚都有许多国家安全利益受到威胁。然而,两国的利益并不完全吻合。土耳其对美国不愿帮助反对派推翻阿萨德政权感到不满。冲突中不同的优先事项使双边关系紧张。本文的目的是在最近的叙利亚危机的背景下分析美土关系。将试图突出使双边关系紧张的问题。本文将重点介绍美土关系的分歧点和契合点。本文还将重点讨论美国和土耳其对叙利亚的政策。两国的政策都将受到严格的评估。
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引用次数: 4
Globalization, Terrorism and the State 全球化、恐怖主义和国家
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.34992
Sertif Demir, A. Varlık
The main discussion point of this article is to explore the cause-effect relation between the weakening of nation state and the intensification of global terrorism by the influence of globalization. The main thesis of the article is that the malign effects of globalization have considerably weakened nation states or dragged them into a situation in which the security and stability would no longer be sustained as desired. Global terrorism can stem from the adverse effects of globalization, imbalance of power, disparity of players, and power vacuum. Failed states, separatist minorities and radicals use terrorism as warfare in order to counterbalance the power gap or to consolidate their authority. In order to verify/nullify the main thesis, we sought answers for three main issues: consequences of globalization; influence of globalization on terrorism; and lessons learned from terrorism. Our study has come to a conclusion that the most reliable way to cope with the challenges of the new form of terrorism is to strengthen the nation state concept in democratic, laic, social and legal terms
本文的主要讨论点是探讨民族国家的弱化与全球化影响下全球恐怖主义的加剧之间的因果关系。这篇文章的主要论点是,全球化的恶性影响已经大大削弱了民族国家,或者把它们拖进了一种安全与稳定将不再像预期的那样持续下去的局面。全球恐怖主义可能源于全球化的不利影响、权力的不平衡、参与者的不平等以及权力真空。失败的国家、分裂的少数民族和激进分子利用恐怖主义作为战争,以平衡权力差距或巩固他们的权威。为了验证/否定主要论点,我们寻求三个主要问题的答案:全球化的后果;全球化对恐怖主义的影响;以及从恐怖主义中吸取的教训。我们的研究得出的结论是,应对新形式恐怖主义挑战的最可靠方法是加强民主、世俗、社会和法律方面的民族国家概念
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引用次数: 7
Contentious Politics in Iran: Factions, Foreign Policy and the Nuclear Deal 伊朗有争议的政治:派系、外交政策和核协议
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.08102
S. Kaya, Zeynep Şartepe
This paper endeavors to analyze the evolution of Iran’s foreign policy in the post-revolutionary era by focusing on the ‘historic nuclear deal’ (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action- JCPOA) which is expected to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme. The objective of the paper is to shed some light on Iran’s striving to maintain a delicate balance between ideology and pragmatism and the elements of change and continuity in its conduct of foreign policy since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In this regard, different foreign policy agendas adopted respectively by Khomeini, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Ahmadinejad, and Rouhani will be examined within the context of factional rivalries which emerged out of the political, economic and social structure of the country. With the ascent of the reformist cleric Khatami to presidency in 1997, the long lasting rivalry between the reformist faction that seeks ‘Islamic democracy’ at home and Iran’s integration into the world politics, and the conservative faction whose guiding principle is the return to a revolutionary Islamic ideology, has become apparent in post-revolutionary Iran. While the hardliner Ahmadinejad’s rise to power in 2005 meant flashback to revolutionary ideology both in domestic and foreign affairs of Iran, the victory of pro-reform cleric Hassan Rouhani in 2013 marked the beginning of a new era in Iran’s relations with the West through nuclear negotiations.
本文试图通过关注“历史性核协议”(联合全面行动计划- JCPOA)来分析伊朗在后革命时代外交政策的演变,该协议有望确保伊朗核计划的和平性质。本文的目的是阐明伊朗自1979年伊斯兰革命以来一直在努力保持意识形态和实用主义之间的微妙平衡,以及其外交政策的变化和连续性。在这方面,霍梅尼、拉夫桑贾尼、哈塔米、艾哈迈迪内贾德和鲁哈尼分别采取的不同外交政策议程将在该国政治、经济和社会结构中出现的派系竞争的背景下进行研究。随着1997年改革派教士哈塔米当选总统,在国内寻求“伊斯兰民主主义”和伊朗融入世界政治的改革派和以回归伊斯兰革命思想为指导原则的保守派之间的长期竞争在革命后的伊朗变得明显。强硬派内贾德2005年的上台意味着伊朗内政和外交上的革命意识形态的回归,而支持改革的神职人员哈桑·鲁哈尼在2013年的胜利标志着伊朗通过核谈判与西方关系进入了一个新时代。
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引用次数: 1
Deconstructing the Neoliberal Character of the European Union: A Major Source of Leftist Dissent Over the EU in Turkish Civil Society 解构欧盟的新自由主义特征:土耳其公民社会左翼对欧盟持不同意见的主要来源
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.04639
Can Büyükbay
This article aims to contribute to the discourse of Euroscepticism in Turkish civil society by examining the underlying dynamics of the phenomenon among leftist groups. Methodologically, semi-structured qualitative interviews with and surveys of Civil Society Organisation (CSO) leaders and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) are applied. Compared to business organisations, a large part of the trades unions have a cautious approach towards European integration. Generally, the leftist leaders do not perceive the EU process strategically or as a political opportunity structure to gain influence, but predominately more ideologically, as the spread of neoliberal free market policies that create an anti-labour environment.
本文旨在通过考察左翼团体中这种现象的潜在动力,为土耳其公民社会中的欧洲怀疑主义话语做出贡献。方法上,半结构化的定性访谈和调查民间社会组织(CSO)领导人和批判性话语分析(CDA)应用。与商业组织相比,大部分工会对欧洲一体化持谨慎态度。一般来说,左翼领导人并不认为欧盟进程具有战略意义,也不认为它是获得影响力的政治机会结构,而更多地是意识形态上的,认为它是新自由主义自由市场政策的传播,创造了一个反劳工的环境。
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引用次数: 1
Sino-Turkish Strategic Economic Relationship in New Era 新时期的中土战略经济关系
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.89529
Zhiqiang Zou
This article argues that the dynamic development of Sino-Turkish economic relations has got new strategic significance amid rising of the two countries in the 21 st century. The strategic significance of Turkey economy to China lies in the following aspects: there is great economic cooperative potential between the two countries in view of economic power and momentum; as the principle members of emerging powers, both of them have growing common interests in global economic transformation and governance reform; Turkey plays an increasing important role in evolution of Eurasian geo-economic structure as well as the Silk Road Economic Belt construction. There are fruitful strategic contents for Sino-Turkish economic relationship in new era; bright prospects can be predicted in bilateral cooperation in aspects including trade, investment, finance and global economic governance. Look ahead, China should pay more attention to Turkey’s importance and make great efforts to build bilateral strategic economic relationship.
本文认为,在21世纪两国崛起的背景下,中土经济关系的动态发展具有新的战略意义。土耳其经济对中国的战略意义在于:从两国经济实力和发展势头来看,两国经济合作潜力巨大;作为新兴大国的主要成员,两国在全球经济转型和治理改革中有着越来越多的共同利益;土耳其在欧亚地缘经济格局演变和丝绸之路经济带建设中发挥着越来越重要的作用。新时期中土经济关系具有丰富的战略内容;两国在贸易、投资、金融、全球经济治理等领域的合作前景广阔。展望未来,中国应更加重视土耳其的重要性,努力构建两国战略经济关系。
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引用次数: 2
2010 Labour Party Leadership Election 2010年工党领袖选举
Pub Date : 2016-01-11 DOI: 10.21599/ATJIR.20754
Sureyya Yigit
Britain is an established parliamentary democracy traditionally dominated by two political parties: Labour and Conservative. General election defeats usually prompt leadership challenges by candidates promising electoral success at the next election. 2010 was no exception with many Labour Members of Parliament offering themselves as the solution to fix the party’s electoral problems. Ed Miliband emerged as the victor in the Labour leadership contest, beating his elder brother alongside his other rivals. His success was dependent on his self portrayal as a left-wing candidate who had learned the relevant lessons from the mistakes encountered under Tony Blair’s New Labour. His vision of a new generation of political leader embracing long held cherished Labour values was a success. The leadership election demonstrated that internal divisions persisted within the Labour Party despite the election of a new leader
英国是一个老牌议会民主制国家,传统上由工党和保守党这两个政党主导。大选失败通常会促使承诺在下次选举中获胜的候选人挑战领导地位。2010年也不例外,许多工党议员将自己标榜为解决该党选举问题的解决方案。埃德·米利班德在工党领袖竞选中脱颖而出,击败了他的哥哥和其他竞争对手。他的成功依赖于他作为左翼候选人的自我形象,他从托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)领导的新工党(New Labour)所犯的错误中吸取了相关的教训。他对新一代政治领袖拥抱长期以来珍视的工党价值观的愿景取得了成功。这次党魁选举表明,尽管选出了新党魁,工党内部分歧依然存在
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
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